Prospect News: Hold The Mayo or Great Scott! 

Cardinals OF Victor Scott II should be racing up draft boards now that Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbar are likely to start the season on the injured list. Here’s what I wrote in my St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects For Fantasy Baseball: 

“A throwback to the OG RBI Baseball Cardinals that could slash and dash an opponent into submission, Scott the second stole 95 bases in 132 games across two levels this year then added to that total in the Arizona Fall League. He manages the strike zone well and produced wRC+ scores of 117 and 119 at High-A and Double-A, respectively. He’s not a big power threat but doesn’t get the bat knocked out of his hands. He even hit .323 and slugged .450 with seven home runs in 66 games at Double-A. Having just defended an AL-Only crown due largely to a $7 Esteury Ruiz, I find it hard to overrate Victor Scott II. I think we could argue that having more steals available in our game increases the value of standard deviation makers like these. If you miss on speed now, the penalty is something like minus-10 standings points off the top, whereas you might’ve been able to hustle up into the top five in past years just by paying attention. The question of whether or not St. Louis will give him a chance remains, and it’s not a small one given the organization’s struggles to sort its own prospects.”

All that talk about winning a league due to Ruiz last year, and I still fumbled the bag on acquiring Scott in that CBS NL Only league this year. I should have enough speed with Elly leading the way, but it stings today (oh how it stings!!) no matter how it turns out. It’s not just that Edman is hurt. Scott himself is slashing .370/.469/.444 with four stolen bases and is, in my opinion, just plain better than Edman at this point. 

The other immediate beneficiary in St. Louis is Cardinals OF Alec Burleson, who logged 347 major league plate appearances in 2023 and struck out just 13 percent of the time. His outcomes were less impressive (89 wRC+), but he struggled in his first look at Triple-A in 2021 before coming back to slash .331/.372/.532 the following season, so it wouldn’t be a big shock if he were a productive hitter early in 2024. He’s slashing .407/.484/.556 and batted third on Tuesday. 

The Orioles’ best team out of camp would include 3B Coby Mayo, which doesn’t guarantee him anything but merits mention for a team trying to win a tight division. Mayo’s slashing .323/.432/.581, and some other corner bats like Heston Kjerstad (.303 OBP) and Ryan O’Hearn (.280 OBP) aren’t putting their jobs on lockdown. 

OF Colton Cowser belongs somewhere in this conversation as well. He’s slashing .450/.577/1.050 with four home runs in 26 plate appearances and could put O’Hearn out of a job in a hurry. 

Atlanta OF Jarred Kelenic is not a prospect, nor is he an established player. Through 34 plate appearances with his new team, Kelenic is slashing .067/.176/.067. The club was praised for its move to acquire him at a fairly exorbitant cost in salaries ($26 million), but the back of his baseball card is uninspiring at best. In 974 career plate appearances, Kelenic has slashed .204/.283/.373. I can understand that he’s probably better than that, given how young he was as a rookie and how difficult a park Seattle can be for left-handed hitters, and it’s easy to dream on a smart team adding a talent like this for mostly just money, but I won’t have him on any fantasy rosters. I’ve taken the lane that he’ll have to prove it since he was a prospect, and I see little reason to change lanes at this point. I mentioned Forrest Wall in my last article, “Prospect News: Spring Wins Vol 2: Angel’s Got Your Six”, and he’s gotten on base just about every time up since then, pushing his OBP to .542. He might even have a non-Kelenic path to playing time if the team gives Acuña some extra days at designated hitter. 

Tigers SS Eddys Leonard is slashing .348/.375/.609 with just two strikeouts in 24 plate appearances, a stark contrast from the strikeout rates Javier Baez has recorded in Motown. It’s only gotten worse so far in 2024 (47.4% in 19 PA). Wenceel Perez is playing pretty well, too (.263/.364/.421). You could make a case that Baez is their third best option at shortstop. I’m not sure it matters, given the money he’s making, but crazier things have happened. Anecdotally, I think it’s demoralizing to have a guy with no plate discipline keep coming up in big spots. You can’t help but predict the inevitable and feel deflated as it’s happening. Best to avoid filling even one lineup spot with an easy out. Has to be a degree or two worse when it’s your highest paid player. Leonard was optioned first, but that’s born from short-term roster math as much as anything to do with him at this point. 

On that same, swing-happy planet, Cleveland is kidding themselves with this Deyvison De Los Santos thing. Kyle Manzardo is slashing .429/.529/.571 in 17 PA. DDLS: .250/.250/.357. What are we doing here? This has to be some kind of smokescreen. Is this some kind of left-right, lineup-balance fever dream? Cleveland has DDLS at home in the form of Jhonkensy Noel. They should just send De Los Santos back to the Diamondbacks and move forward as if they give a shit about winning games. I don’t even have Manzardo anywhere and I’m this teed up. I can’t imagine how it feels to have him on a bunch of rosters. 

Tampa is in a little trouble this year. Shane Baz tweaked an oblique picking up a weight. Taj Bradley is having an MRI for pectoral tightness. Jacob Lopez and Naoyuki Uwasawa aren’t looking great. One positive in a sea of suffering for the Rays pitching staff, LHP Brendan McKay might be back. He’s thrown two scoreless innings, woohoo! But you gotta take your wins where they come when your injured list reads Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Taj Bradley. If healthy, that’s a contender for best rotation in baseball. Between you me and the trees, I think they’re planning to go with Chris Devenski as a one-turn opener and back him up with McKay if he’s able. Bulk-den McKay. 

Thanks for reading!