In last week’s article, we went over top-50 players that we want to fade. For this week, we’re going with players between 50-100 that we want to avoid. While these guys are much easier to fade, there are still noobs out there reaching on these players. Don’t be that guy! Be the guy who walks out of your draft and has a wonderful day. There aren’t many better feelings than walking away from a draft and knowing you killed it but we’re giving you that opportunity here. Drafting any of these players with give you prom night-like regrets and we don’t wanna go through that again. So, let’s start with the ugliest girl at the prom, Kimmy.

Craig Kimbrel, FA (RP) 

Why the hell are people drafting this guy so high? Even if Kimbrel signed with a team, this price would still be too expensive. The fact that he’s still sitting out there in free agency has to tell you something, as it’s clear that he’s not the same pitcher he once wasHis control is what’s probably concerning GM’s, as Kimbrel registered some of the worst peripherals of his career last season. In fact, Kimbrel posted a 1.01 HR/9 rate and 12.6 percent BB-rate last season. Those are easily two of the worst marks in his career, as his 3.13 xFIP indicates he was a bit lucky last season too. His 28 percent GB-rate and .216 BABIP back up the fact that he was extremely fortunate, as those numbers are much lower than they should be.

All these statistics make him look like a regression candidate but the fact that he doesn’t have a team is even more concerning. Greg Holland is the prime example of this. He was a stud closer who wasn’t signed until right before the season started last year and it looks nearly identical to Kimbrel’s situation. That late signing clearly hampered him, as Holland posted a 7.92 ERA and 2.24 WHIP in 32 games with the Cardinals last season. Kimbrel is probably a better pitcher than Holland but it’s definitely something to think about. 

The final two months last season may indicate a slide for Kimbrel too, as he posted a 4.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 6.5 BB/9 in his final 21 appearances. All this would make Kimbrel worth a fade but the fact that he’s not even on a team and is being drafted in the top-100 (77th overall) makes him one of the easiest bust candidates out there. 

Lorenzo Cain, MIL (OF) 

Cain is one of those guys who’s a better real-life player than fantasy option, as he continues to be overvalued year after year. Cain is currently going 64th in drafts according to FantasyPros ADP, as I wouldn’t even target him until around pick 100. His floor is somewhat attractive but this is a guy with no ceiling. In fact, Cain has only surpassed 10 home runs twice in his entire career and has only reached 60 RBI once.

Those power numbers are downright ugly, as this is simply a steals and average sort of guy. There are much better options to get steals and average too, as Cain is averaging 17.4 steals per season and is posting an average south of .290 since his first full season. His career-highs of 30 steals and a .308 average actually came last season, as it would be hard to imagine him surpassing those statistics. Let’s pretend like he duplicates that average and steals averages while hitting 10-15 home runs and recording 60 RBI. That would price him right about what you’re paying for but that’s essentially his ceiling.

His .395 OBP and 11.5 percent BB-rate from last season are going to be hard numbers to duplicate too, as those statistics are well above his career averages. Don’t pay this much for someone with such a low ceiling, as you can find a potential league-winner in the same range.  

Miguel Andujar, NYY (3B) 

There are just way too many bodies in New York for me to pay a top-100 pick for Andujar, as he could easily find himself out of a regular job by June. Gleyber Torres, D.J. Lemahieu, Troy Tulowitzki and Didi Gregorius are all on the roster and Andujar could find himself out of business when Gregorius eventually returns. One major reason why is his lack of defense, as he posted an absurd –25 DRS last season. That makes him one of the worst fielders in the majors and that could cost him plate appearances down the line.

There are underlying numbers at the plate which are discouraging too, with Andujar struggling with his discipline. In fact, Andujar posted a minuscule 4.1 percent BB-rate last season, as his .328 OBP is going to be hard to maintain at that pace. Andujar also finished the year with a 16 percent HR/FB-rate and 36 percent hard-hit rate, which both marked a career-highs. While those numbers aren’t expected to regress a whole lot, it just puts fuel to the fire when you consider this congested infield and potential regression. Not to mention, his runs and RBI could be down, as he’s expected to bat near the bottom of the Yankees lineup.  

German Marquez, COL (SP) 

This really pains me because I’m a Rockies fan but I’ve never drafted a Rockies pitcher in my life and I’m not starting now. If there was ever a Rockie pitcher I wanted to draft, it’s this guy but I’m simply not paying this much for him. Marquez is currently going 84th in drafts according to FantasyPros but I’d much rather go with a guy like Josh Donaldson or Jose Abreu in the same range. There have only been a handful of Rockies starters in their franchise history who have cracked the top-100 and they came from players like Ubaldo Jimenez, Marvin Freeman and Jhoulys Chacin. That’s a who’s who of nobodies and they certainly weren’t highly drafted like Marquez.

The home numbers from Marquez speak for themselves, as he posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at home last year. Those are un-draftable numbers, let alone from a guy who pitches half his games at Coors Field. Some of his peripheral numbers seem a bit outlandish too, as his strikeout rate is going to be hard to match. Marquez posted a 28.2 percent K-rate and 10.6 K/9 last season, which are significantly higher averages than his minor league numbers. In fact, Marquez never posted a K/9 above 8.7 in the minors, as he’s surely going to regress some in that category. I’d be as happy as anyone to see him continue his majestic late-season surge from last year but I’m certainly not betting on it at this sort of price tag. 

If you have any comments or questions, comment me here or hit me on on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

  1. Speaking of Kimbrel, I have Corey Knebel and I see they are saying he has a UCL issue, but not a complete tear, and the brew Crew was talking with Kimbrel. Yikes! He might need Tommy John surgery. I am in a fairly shallow league and need a replacement for saves; Tyler Glasnow TB, Cody Allen LAA, Will Smith SF, Trevor May MIN, Jordan Hicks STL, Archie Bradley AR!. I was leaning Cody Allen. What do you think Joel? Drop Knebel now for… ?

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      I usually wouldnt say to drop Knebel quite yet but in a league this shallow, you could probably get away with it. Who else can you drop? Honestly, all of those guys are good options, Glasnow is my favorite if you dont include saves. But if you need saves, Allen is the best. Bradley and Hicks are just behind though

      • William St. Amour says:
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        Ya if my choices are that close I suppose I can wait to find out and IR him if necessary, but if the 2nd opinion agrees with the 1st, he probably will not pitch again this year. Also, if he doesn’t elect for surgery, would he still be as effective? I’ll wait to hear the second option and decide. Thanks for the input. Razzball rules!

    • c says:
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      what is that, a 5 team league? if those guys are available, drop Knebel now.

  2. The Real Joey Bart

    The Real Joey Bart says:
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    Yeah I can’t imagine he’ll be too effective with a messed up elbow. Thanks for reading man!

  3. Shitwolf says:
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    thanks man I like your articles. I wouldnt touch these people either… I have been doing some mock drafts for my upcoming OBP and the weirdest rounds for me feel like the first and the middle 6-10 range. Feels like there are a lot of over rated hitters in that group like cain as you suggested and I wonder about reaching for guys like Gallo/Conforto/mccutchen because of the OBP thing. Was also thinking about taking some older guys in these rounds like Cruz/Donaldson. What would you do? I also pick 3rd and have been hard debating who to take there after trout/betts. Who would you take??

    thanks man

  4. The Real Joey Bart

    The Real Joey Bart says:
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    I actually love taking Donaldson and Gallo around pick 100. I think they have huge upside. I agree on it being a weird group, I actually hate the 60-80 group. As strange as it sounds, I keep ending up with Kershaw in that range because Im unsatisfied with everyone else and love his upside. As for the 3rd pick, Id go with either Turner, Arenado or Ramirez. Its up to you based on what sort of strategy you have.

    • Shitwolf says:
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      ya I do love Turner but could see grabbing Mondesi instead in thise weird rounds… I was honestly thinking judge because his OBP is so high .. 40+ hr potential strong lineup and isnt a total sb dud is that wrong?? Arenado actually has some strong appeal because I keep finding myself not loving any 3b… unless I hope to get bryant as a #2 pick

      Donaldson could be really good or be a total injury bust he scares me

  5. The Real Joey Bart

    The Real Joey Bart says:
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    oh yeah, Donaldson def has some risk but huge upside too. Thats why I like Kershaw. Judge would be a bit of a reach honestly but its not the worst idea. Harper is also a huge beneficiary in that sort of league. Its really up to you tho man. Whatever you rocmfortable with

  6. LadyScorpio says:
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    Great article! I didn’t draft Kimbrel, Cain or Marquez. Andujar was a waiver wire grab that I made a keeper for this year. I wasn’t too concerned about him until reading your article and now I’m kinda worried about him and Jeff McNeil who also might get ousted from 2B once Lowrie or Frazier returns. I can move Machado to 3B. I’m thinking about replacing McNeil with K. Marte or Schoop. Which would you recommend? Feel free to expound on my team in general.

    10 team, 6×6, roto, keeper league with Runs, RBIs, HRs, SBs, AVG, OPS, Wins, Ks, ERA, WHIP, K/BB & SV+H: ( K = Keepers)

    C – Mejia
    1B – Rizzo
    2B – D. Murphy
    SS – Machado
    3B – Andujar (K)
    CI – Shaw
    MI – McNeil
    OFs – Trout (K), Acuna (K), Dahl & E. Jimenez
    U – J. Wendle
    U – Bader
    NA – Tatis
    SP – Mikolas, Lucchesi, Strahm, Bieber, Woodruff & Stripling
    RP – Treinen(K), Strickland, W. Smith, Colome, R. Pressley & S. Oh

    Please advise.

    Thanks,
    LadyScorpio

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Id definitely rather have Schoop than McNeill hoestly> One thing I think you should try to do is trade an OF for a pitcher or two.

  7. The Real Joey Bart

    The Real Joey Bart says:
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    Id definitely rather have Schoop than McNeill hoestly> One thing I think you should try to do is trade an OF for a pitcher or two.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      If you click reply on bottom of the comment, it goes to the person, and they get pinged if they clicked notify me of followups

      • The Real Joey Bart

        The Real Joey Bart says:
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        Yeah, I thought I clicked that but I guess not. Thanks for the heads up

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Be well, RJB

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