In last week’s article, we went over top-50 players that we want to fade. For this week, we’re going with players between 50-100 that we want to avoid. While these guys are much easier to fade, there are still noobs out there reaching on these players. Don’t be that guy! Be the guy who walks out of your draft and has a wonderful day. There aren’t many better feelings than walking away from a draft and knowing you killed it but we’re giving you that opportunity here. Drafting any of these players with give you prom night-like regrets and we don’t wanna go through that again. So, let’s start with the ugliest girl at the prom, Kimmy.
Craig Kimbrel, FA (RP)
Why the hell are people drafting this guy so high? Even if Kimbrel signed with a team, this price would still be too expensive. The fact that he’s still sitting out there in free agency has to tell you something, as it’s clear that he’s not the same pitcher he once was. His control is what’s probably concerning GM’s, as Kimbrel registered some of the worst peripherals of his career last season. In fact, Kimbrel posted a 1.01 HR/9 rate and 12.6 percent BB-rate last season. Those are easily two of the worst marks in his career, as his 3.13 xFIP indicates he was a bit lucky last season too. His 28 percent GB-rate and .216 BABIP back up the fact that he was extremely fortunate, as those numbers are much lower than they should be.
All these statistics make him look like a regression candidate but the fact that he doesn’t have a team is even more concerning. Greg Holland is the prime example of this. He was a stud closer who wasn’t signed until right before the season started last year and it looks nearly identical to Kimbrel’s situation. That late signing clearly hampered him, as Holland posted a 7.92 ERA and 2.24 WHIP in 32 games with the Cardinals last season. Kimbrel is probably a better pitcher than Holland but it’s definitely something to think about.
The final two months last season may indicate a slide for Kimbrel too, as he posted a 4.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 6.5 BB/9 in his final 21 appearances. All this would make Kimbrel worth a fade but the fact that he’s not even on a team and is being drafted in the top-100 (77th overall) makes him one of the easiest bust candidates out there.
Lorenzo Cain, MIL (OF)
Cain is one of those guys who’s a better real-life player than fantasy option, as he continues to be overvalued year after year. Cain is currently going 64th in drafts according to FantasyPros ADP, as I wouldn’t even target him until around pick 100. His floor is somewhat attractive but this is a guy with no ceiling. In fact, Cain has only surpassed 10 home runs twice in his entire career and has only reached 60 RBI once.
Those power numbers are downright ugly, as this is simply a steals and average sort of guy. There are much better options to get steals and average too, as Cain is averaging 17.4 steals per season and is posting an average south of .290 since his first full season. His career-highs of 30 steals and a .308 average actually came last season, as it would be hard to imagine him surpassing those statistics. Let’s pretend like he duplicates that average and steals averages while hitting 10-15 home runs and recording 60 RBI. That would price him right about what you’re paying for but that’s essentially his ceiling.
His .395 OBP and 11.5 percent BB-rate from last season are going to be hard numbers to duplicate too, as those statistics are well above his career averages. Don’t pay this much for someone with such a low ceiling, as you can find a potential league-winner in the same range.
Miguel Andujar, NYY (3B)
There are just way too many bodies in New York for me to pay a top-100 pick for Andujar, as he could easily find himself out of a regular job by June. Gleyber Torres, D.J. Lemahieu, Troy Tulowitzki and Didi Gregorius are all on the roster and Andujar could find himself out of business when Gregorius eventually returns. One major reason why is his lack of defense, as he posted an absurd –25 DRS last season. That makes him one of the worst fielders in the majors and that could cost him plate appearances down the line.
There are underlying numbers at the plate which are discouraging too, with Andujar struggling with his discipline. In fact, Andujar posted a minuscule 4.1 percent BB-rate last season, as his .328 OBP is going to be hard to maintain at that pace. Andujar also finished the year with a 16 percent HR/FB-rate and 36 percent hard-hit rate, which both marked a career-highs. While those numbers aren’t expected to regress a whole lot, it just puts fuel to the fire when you consider this congested infield and potential regression. Not to mention, his runs and RBI could be down, as he’s expected to bat near the bottom of the Yankees lineup.
German Marquez, COL (SP)
This really pains me because I’m a Rockies fan but I’ve never drafted a Rockies pitcher in my life and I’m not starting now. If there was ever a Rockie pitcher I wanted to draft, it’s this guy but I’m simply not paying this much for him. Marquez is currently going 84th in drafts according to FantasyPros but I’d much rather go with a guy like Josh Donaldson or Jose Abreu in the same range. There have only been a handful of Rockies starters in their franchise history who have cracked the top-100 and they came from players like Ubaldo Jimenez, Marvin Freeman and Jhoulys Chacin. That’s a who’s who of nobodies and they certainly weren’t highly drafted like Marquez.
The home numbers from Marquez speak for themselves, as he posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at home last year. Those are un-draftable numbers, let alone from a guy who pitches half his games at Coors Field. Some of his peripheral numbers seem a bit outlandish too, as his strikeout rate is going to be hard to match. Marquez posted a 28.2 percent K-rate and 10.6 K/9 last season, which are significantly higher averages than his minor league numbers. In fact, Marquez never posted a K/9 above 8.7 in the minors, as he’s surely going to regress some in that category. I’d be as happy as anyone to see him continue his majestic late-season surge from last year but I’m certainly not betting on it at this sort of price tag.
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