As I said in the Gleyber Torres sleeper, calling Yankees sleepers is already a thin ice proposition. Who doesn’t know the Fawkees, dawg? They’re like covered by ESPN morning, noon and night, when ESPN is covering baseball, which is a bit more than badminton but way less than every other major sport. ESPN sees woman’s volleyball engagement on IG and is like, “Let’s spike our baseball coverage! High five me on the pun!” That’s someone in Bristol. Or maybe it’s because the Yankees had such an underperforming year in 21 after 20, but I’m finding some value this year in Yankees bats and arms, which brings us to Jordan Montgomery. I ain’t no JoMo, but I love what I’m seeing with this guy. Last year, he went 6-7/3.83/1.28/162 in 157 1/3 IP and had a 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Wait a minute, I went full hot-and-heavy on that? Kinda bleh, Previous Sentence Grey, kinda bleh. I hear ya, Current Sentence Grey, but you’re gonna wanna pay attention, because this guy is so close to tipping off into top 10 starter range. Like a horny set of conjoined male twins, I feel it in my bones! So, what can we expect from Jordan Montgomery for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Jordan Montgomery sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve finished my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and they’re all available on our Patreon. Oh, and Happy New Year! Anyway II, the Jordan Montgomery sleeper:

Jordan Montgomery appears to be a pitch sequencing away from figuring out how to become an ace. Now, I explain. Does he have the best changeup in baseball for a starter? Yes. At worst, I’m willing to accept him and and Lucas Giolito are 1A and 1B. His changeup produced a 39.2 Whiff%. I will now cackle for 45 minutes until dragged away by healthcare professionals. That’s nutty, bros and five sisters. Giolito’s was 35.4%. Jordan Montgomery is almost 4% better on whiffs with his change. C’mon. Like that’s unfair. Here’s a few sing-songy-bye-byes:

One of those is an 81 MPH curve, which brings us to my 2nd point. His curveball is as good as his change and maybe better! What even. That seems unfair, right? The curve’s chase rate was 41.2%; its Zone% was 40.5% and his SwStr% was 20.7%. That’s absurd. MLB averages on those three respectively for all pitches was 31.3%, 42.1% and 11.2% (HA!). So, essentially this means Jordan Montgomery is throwing the curve kinda nowhere near the zone and hitters are swinging like lunatics. Framber Valdez has the highest Whiff% in the majors on curves; Jordan Montgomery is number two. If you have a pitch that produces those results, you throw it 30% of the time, climb a mountain in Asia and have some wise old man tell you, “Be an ace.” If you have two of those pitches, throw them each 30% of the time and do a Ric Flair Whoooooooo to the podium for a Cy Young. I guess you need to throw the 93 MPH 4-seamer some percentage of the time just to setup the rest of the naughty bits, but be naughty, my young man, be naughty.

As I said above about pitch sequencing, if JoMo can no mo’ throw his fastball when it’s going to bite him in the no-no region, and just eat up hitters with his two great pitches, then he’s going to be wrestling hardware from his teammate, Gerrit Cole. You get filth like this from a starter on one pitch. On two pitches? I’m begging you to point out how he’s not an ace. I’m being rhetorical. I know why he’s getting hit. Bad timing with the fastball. If hitters can sit fastball on him, they will hit him. Or if he can locate his fastball better, which brings me to his command: it was under-2 BB/9 his rookie year! Jumped up last year, but this is not a 4+ BB/9 guy. He’s gonna sit around 2.2 BB/9, which, again, tells me he just needs to stop being obvious about when he’s throwing his fastball and he will excel. Forget excel, use Apple Numbers, this is not a paid advertisement. Nah, seriously, forget excel, if I can get odds on Jordan Montgomery winning the Cy Young this year, I’d drop a ducket or two. He is so close to stratosphere. Can you tell I’m writing this in Vegas? It’s obvious, isn’t it? He throws strikes, misses bats, and induces weaker contact. Give me your tired, your weak, and your JoMo shares. For 2022, I’ll give Jordan Montgomery projections of 13-10/3.67/1.18/184 in 179 IP with a chance for much more.

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Ben
Ben
7 months ago

Grey, amazing insight as always. Starting to grapple with my 2022 keeper decision, would love your input. 10-team, 1-C, 4-OF, 1 IF, 1 UT, 10-P 5×5 OBP league. $260 budget. Can keep up to 7 players, for up to two years each.

Five core keepers:
Jose Ramirez – $11
Bo Bichette – $6
Rafael Devers – $1
Cedric Mullins – $2
Freddy Peralta – $1

For my two remaining slots, my options include:
Castellanos for $18
Kiriloff for $1
Gallen for $7
Musgrove for $19
Fried for $22
Mahle for $12
Gilbert for $1
Ohtani (P) for $6

My instinct right now is Ohtani and Gilbert to log some cheap, moderately high-upside pitching. But not sure how optimistic I should be about Gilbert or trusting I should be with Shohei’s innings. What do you think?

Toolshed
Toolshed
7 months ago

Wanted to also ask about Eric Haase who has c/of eligibility. They signed Barnhart who is a good framer so Haase isn’t going to catch much. Do you think Haase gets regular AB’s. Miggy as much as I love the guy is in the way at dh. And Haase is probably not going to get a ton of outfield time. I keep asking about guys who are on my fringe keeper list In a deep 14 team league if you haven’t noticed. Thanks

Toolshed
Toolshed
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks. You’ve confirmed my initial outlook on him. Looks like I’ll be trolling for a catcher again just like clockwork.

Powdered Toast Man
Powdered Toast Man
7 months ago

Happy New Year Grey! Looking forward to January Grey- one of the best times of the year!

Who do I protect? Cal Quantrill or Frankie Montas?

Wake Up
7 months ago

Agree with Hernan. I remember targeting him quite a few times… to pick on him not pick him for my team.
He’s a streamer in a 12 teamer who will be unusable often.
He struggles to get to the 6th IP/ only twice through the lineup type… think he only made it 6 IP like 9 times last year.
92 mph fastball really limits his upside.
Bad park.
Tough division.
I’ll be happy to see my many enemies bumping him up their draft boards…when they pick Montgomery I’ll be draft bored!
Happy New Year.

Wake Up
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Tough Crowd…great show!

You’re definitely in the majority…everyone is calling him a sleeper so far…I’m on the island which I am quite comfortable being on…

Will
Will
7 months ago

Montgomery seems like a perfectly serviceable #3 starter for fantasy baseball. If you toss out his 2019/2020 seasons (44 IP) when he was recovering from TJS he’s been very consistent in the 3.80 ERA / 1.25 WHIP range.

Question I meant to ask on the Dylan Cease sleeper post -would you keep Cease over Gausman or Logan Webb for next season? I am a little bit leery of Gausman in Toronto / the AL East. Thanks.

Hernan
Hernan
7 months ago

Yeah, Montgomery seems like a steal where he’s going, as a Red Sox fan, lol, I hope he sucks…, not happening though.., it seems both Rays and Blue Jays have his number…., remember doing awesome stacking Rays and Jays against him in DFS…., I guess the unbalanced schedule ( playing 19 games vs division), gives him about a dozen starts against very dangerous heavy right handed lineups…., still , worth the price

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
7 months ago

Honestly had no idea he was this good despite being a yanks fan.

Thanks + happy new year!

Sport
Sport
7 months ago

I really liked this one. I had Monty highlighted from my research a couple of months ago because of the K/9 and BB/9 numbers, and I thought a fip of 3.69 should put him in range to be a solid SP4 guy. If was going to me around 185 I would take him, considering his early ADP was 200.

I’m really glad I read this though and I didn’t realize he was on the cusp of much, much more. To me, this is another great example of Sleeper. Maybe he doesn’t get the K rates as Gausman but considering where I might grab him in drafts compared to his ADP he could be a big value this year.

I have been offered Freddy Peralta for my A.Vaughn and Framber Valdez. I was trying to find a taker on Framber and recieved this as the counter offer. We start 4 OF and I have Trout, Harper, Yelich (puke), Lourdes Gurriel, Kyle Lewis, and Seiya Suzuki. Does it seem like a fair trade or should I want more for Vaughn in a dynasty?

Speaking of Seiya Suzuki. I haven’t heard anything recently on how the lockout affected his deadline to sign. I know it was December 22 and he couldn’t sign during the lockout, but what happens now?

Thank you for the site! 2021 has been a very educational year for me and I look for 22!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Oh I will be looking to grab Montgomery sooner than 185!

It’s a tough trade. I love having a stacked hitting lineup, but this league has no limits on innings pitched or games started so I feel the SP have a lot more value. I currently have Woodruff, Pablo Lopez, Fried, Gonsolin, Mahle, Manaea, Dustin May, Mize, Plesac, Framber, and Eflin. So my SP isn’t bad enough to warrant losing Vaughn I don’t think. Plus I really need to find away to get Chris Taylor out of my MI slot.

BadFantasyManager
BadFantasyManager
7 months ago

Normally, I don’t draft yankee players because the hitters are injury prone or overrated and besides Cole, I didn’t like their pitchers.

But your arguments are convincing and I now I see myself picking Montgomery. Is this one of the players you see taking a few rounds earlier than their ADP?

packers2018
packers2018
7 months ago

Happy New Year Grey!

Jo Mo took 3 years to get where he is today after TJ surgery. I too look for some more improvement in 2022.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
7 months ago

You make excellent points. I never gave him much thought other than a 3rd starter type so I glanced at his game logs. I would add that his final numbers were skewed by two lousy starts toward the end of the season: 9/10 vs Mets and 10/2 vs Tampa. Throw them out and his ERA drops to 3.27 on the season. Dropping bad games can be a slippery slope because those games could indicate a guy prone to blow ups. But… on two occasions were he had bad starts he followed them up with games where he had his highest (12) and second highest (11)strikeout games which could indicate he can, as you said make, adjustments. (Obviously the 10/2 games was his last start of the regular season).

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
7 months ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!!!

a. Another good one, couldn’t go B2B2B. I do like JoMo, just thought his k/9 was a little lower for my super dynasty startup team. I had him last year in my RCLs and plan on it this year too.

b. Once again, repeating from yesterday, HNY!!!

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for December 31, 2021

‘Secretary of State Warren Christopher again said he’d quit his job because he’s tired of being a secretary.’

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for December 31, 2021

‘How do you feel about women’s rights? I like either side of them.’

Cheers,
Ante

Toolshed
Toolshed
7 months ago

What do you think of rowdy tellez this year? He had a brutal start to the season then saw his playing time dry up and was shipped to mil. I was stoked when he was traded. I thought he’d get a chance to play every day. They show him at 56 games played for mil, but was used as a bat off the bench for probably half of those games. I just know he hits the ball HARD, has a respectable walk rate, a good k rate, and doesn’t have any discernable splits rhp vs lhp. Do you think he finally gets his chance this year? He never really got going last year. The sporadic playing time didn’t help. Thanks

Toolshed
Toolshed
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Ok. I was afraid of that. I think he could do very well in that park with regular AB’s.

goodfold2
goodfold2
7 months ago

from yesterday:

2. the MI’s available: sucks that this group is the weakest as it’s my weakest spot, will probably put out likely non winning but still pretty big bids (we can tier the bids like “only bid on one of this list”) on ceager/correa/muncy

4. SP’s: yeah i got pab lop and am likely to let sale go assuming he gets bid to the expected top 15 price or so (15 mil+) wanted to see order of those though so that’s good at the top 5 end of who’s biddable.

muncy: you really have him behind ceager/correa at MI and behind bell for CI? that’s surprising for me. he might’ve gotten lost as i listed him at MI as the MI’s were so weak i was putting anybody elig in that group not OF/CI if they had MI.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

oh, yep, that’s how behind i am, not reading the player blurbs yet. am caught up on prospect lists here though now. explains his absence entirely. weird 3 sport time of year for me. football’s got less than 2 weeks left. well i guess glad i missed on muncy in smaller keeper leagues then for a bit.

– (in news blurbs) haha, an odrisamer sighting. what’s this AND SOCRATES, WTF, all the great names go to korea eventually. double what the, k.seager retires?! can’t be bad for e.white (wait, it’s really padlo, which is awesome too, hadn’t seen him traded yet, nice, TB jerked him around for playing time). i do have more white than padlo hmm.