Time flies when you’re having fun. Well, at least I’m having fun. I can’t speak for you kind reader. We’ve only two more divisions to cover for minor league rankings and spring training is just around the corner. I can smell the pine tar! While lurking on Reddit last week, I stumbled upon a great tool created by a user named BoBtheMule. I reached out to him about it and it turns out he’s a Razzball reader. Basically, he compiled all the prospect rankings from free sites on one sheet. You can check it out here. It’s very well done. Anyhoo, I thought it would be fun to see where I’m higher or lower than some of the other big sites (six others to be exact, including Razzball’s own Ralph from ProspectsLive). Anyhoo part two, I’ve been out of the game for a time, and while I don’t peep other rankings when creating my own, I do think it’s interesting to go back and look at how my rankings compare to others in the industry. As Kierkegaard pointed out, “Life can only be understood backwards.” Let’s take a look!
Three Guys I’m Lower On…
- Pretty much every pitcher on God’s green earth…
While looking through the list, it seemed that just about every pitcher had a difference of at least 10-15 slots. I’m still in the camp that pitching – particularly pitching prospects – are very risky investments. The difference in rankings checks out. There were, however, three pitchers that I was actually higher on – and some by quite a large margin. I’ll get to them in the next section.
- Jesus Sanchez | My Rank: NR | Average Rank: 47
This could be a genuine oversight on my part, and I remember a commenter asking about him in the, er, comments. Here’s what I said in the Rays report: “Sanchez has average tools across the board, but there’s enough power to be fantasy relevant. I think on his current trajectory, he’d reach the majors with the potential for 18-20 homers, a handful of steals, and an average in the neighborhood of .280. He’ll need a full year in the upper minors to really see how his approach works against good pitching.” Sanchez hit .214 in his first go at Double-A (110 PAs). The idea of not getting too excited about players in the lower minors is evident in our next player as well…
- Kristian Robinson | My Rank: NR | Average Rank: 66
Here’s what I said in the DBacks preview: “Another signing from the Bahamas, Robinson is a big dude for 18 (6’3?, 190). He has 60-70 grade power and plus speed to boot. He’s probably not as well-known as some other international signings, but his tools are just as interesting. My guess is he’ll slide to a corner outfield spot down the road but that doesn’t really affect fantasy value. The 10+ walk rate in 2018 is a good omen. Want to get in on the ground floor of possibly the next Eloy? This could be the guy.” ‘The next Eloy’ is pretty high praise, but I honestly never even considered him in my top 100. Next year he could easily be top 50 though..I guess I’m just waiting to see what he can do outside of rookie ball.
Three Guys I’m Higher On…
- Peter Alonso | My Rank: 13 | Average Rank: 32
The twenty-slot difference is pretty aggressive, but I’m liking both Alonso’s offensive abilities and his chances for a callup this season. I was also higher on Hiura by about eight slots. I think both could be difference-makers in 2019 redrafts and contend for ROTY honors in the National League. Yeah, that’s right Robles, I said it. It’s kind of a bold call with the Mets roster leaving nowhere for Alonso to play right now, but it’s a long season and baseball is crazytown.
- Dylan Cease | My Rank: 20 | Average Rank: 41
I love Cease and I think somebody at the White Sox must have photos for them to get him AND Eloy in that trade. There were only two other arms I was higher on: Brent Honeywell (My Rank: 19 | Average Rank: 26) and Rogelio Armenteros (My Rank: 100 | Average Rank: NR). I’ll just leave this here: with over 400 MiLB innings under his belt, what if Armenteros shocks the world and gets the first crack over Whitley and James?
- Luis Urias | My Rank: 22 | Average Rank: 42
Here again I’m aggressive due to Urias’s proximity and opportunity. I also think he has a little more pop than folks suspect. Here’s what I wrote in the Padres preview: “It’s easier to write about prospects who’ve had some MLB appearances already. Urias is one of those – he had over 50 plate appearances with the Padres last season. He’s currently projected to hit second for San Diego in 2019, which bodes well for his counting stats. He’s a plus hitter with good patience and enough pop for 10-12 homers. He’s an average runner, so I don’t think he’ll impact steals. Steamer has him pegged for a .248 average, nine homers, and five swipes in a full season of plate appearances. I’d take the over on all three. Looks like Grey would too.
Other Notable Discrepancies…
- Carter Kieboom | My Rank: 11 | Average Rank: 37
- Nick Madrigal | My Rank: 29 | Average Rank: 44
- Andres Gimenez | My Rank: 21 | Average Rank: 49
- Vidal Brujan | My Rank: 30 | Average Rank: 58
- Estevan Florial | My Rank: 39 | Average Rank: 76
- Leody Taveras | My Rank: 38 | Average Rank: 90
- Christin Stewart | My Rank: 63 | Average Rank: NR
Mike, if you had to bet which one would make the rotation between Burnes and Woodruff which would you choose? Also what do you think of the both of them, as I think they were comparable prospects. Thanks, love your work!!
Thanks! I’d go Woodruff (less options?). Tough one though. Could come down to a spring battle? Yes, comparable..not anything crazy with Ks, but good control.
I take it you would hang on to Alonso and not trade him for Shaw in 5×5 obp dynasty? I only have urias and kipnis at 2b and smoak at 1B. 15 teams, 18 keepers per team. C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, 2UT. Thanks man.
Man that’s a tough one. I’d rather have Shaw for the next year or so, but you’re talking about guys on two different trajectories after that. If your window is open now I’d do it. If you’re in any kind of longer term play, I’d hold.
Thoughts on Kingery? Are his minor league stats the real him or the 450 AB’s he had in the majors last year?
Thanks!
Gonna sound like a copout answer, but probably somewhere in between. I think the Phils pushed him a little too fast and he got stuck in no-man’s land.
Hey Mike just a pic your brain thing. I. O we really can’t predict this type of thing. But do we see Wander Franco in the bogs later this year and where do u rank him
If at all, not until September. I have him ranked 5th this year. With the four ahead of him set to graduate, looking at possible #1 overall this time next year.
You already know what I think about Madrigal!!! Pass!
However, I think your’e dead right on your ranking of Brujan! Seems others aren’t as high but you and Prospects Live are all in on him! Me too!
haha, I do I do.
Nice! Thanks man.
Need a judgement/opinion call here Mike.
I have third overall pick in our draft but I’m not 100% on what I should be grabbing. I’m a top 3 team in our league but still want to build up my prospects as I’ve depleted them to get to that rank.
Best available(highest rated) prospect is Kieboom, but I don’t really have much need for him as I have Albies, Moncada and Trea in the positions he would occupy.
My OF is prob best in the league, but some are on older side (K. Davis, Blackmon). I have Luis Robert. My target for this draft was Kelenic and I feel like that is the way I want to go, (as he has 5 tool upside, like a Beni type of player would be my hope)
However, my weakest link is prob 3b long term (Shaw and Sano who I have no faith in). This makes me question if I should go Gorman.
Also could use pitching or catching. I like Paddack who is also available but taking a pitcher at 3 scares me. Same with a catcher in Bart,and I don’t want to invest in a Zunio 2.0.
So based on those 5: Kieboom, Kelenic, Gorman, Paddack, Bart, what would you do in my situation?
Sorry for the length of this question, I just want to really make sure I nail this pick or have the right guys lined up if my two my targets go ahead of my pick.
Thanks in advance Mike!
@Chris D:
Personally, I am pretty high on Gorman so I don’t think you can go wrong with him. Kieboom is likely moving to 2b, based on what I’ve read. You could always grab him and flip him. There is enough hype on him that you might get a few longer term prospects in return.
Paddack is a risky pick as he has a wide range of possible outcomes so I’d only take him if your team can overcome his elbow imploding again.
@BoBtheMule: Gorman was my 1a, until started reading about Kelenic and threw my whole draft strategy into a tail spin lol. I think I was scared off a bit my the swing in miss in Gorman’s game, but that seems like me nit-picking here lol.
I dont think I can really “miss” with any of those guys, but I want to make sure I’m grabbing the one who makes the most sense and can impact me long term.
I’d take Gorman or Kelenic if you plan to keep, or go with BoB’s strategy and flip Kieboom, who is the highest ranked of all of them on my list.
@Mike: All of that makes sense. Thanks to you both and keep up the great work Mike!
No problem…thanks!
In our 7×7 H2H keeper league we are allowed to keep 15 minor league players (all are eligible in our leagues rules).
I unfortunately have an over abundance of potential keepers, please let me know if there is someone else I should keep over those listed below.
I’m leaning towards these 15 but go back and forth with a few of them based on immediate help/long term potential:
C.Biggio
K.Hiura
F.Tatis
T.Trammell
T.Larnach
E.Jimenez
R.Laureano
F.Peralta
J.Flaherty
J.James
S.Bieber
B.McKay
B.Woodruff
J.Alvarado
J.Urias
These are the players who just missed my cut A.Knizner, N.Lowe, B.Lowe, A.Bohm, K.Maitan,M.Baez , M.Liberatore, T.Widener,L.Gohara , J.Loaisiga, T.Buttery
Any noticeable omissions that I should keep?
Thanks!
@Nuke Laloosh:
Biggio is not a real prospect… once pitchers figured out he was trying to launch everything they crushed him. Look at his stats after mid June.
I personally like Widener, Liberatore, the Lowes, Gohara much more.
@BoBtheMule: He’s not a prospect? I think that’s a little lazy. He’s not going to have elite batting averages due to a strikeout rate that will probably always exceed 20%, but he’s got at least gap power and has shown the ability to go yard. No, he’s not a 40-50 homerun hitter. But in the majors he may be good for 10-15 homeruns in his prime and about 10 NSB to go with strong walk rates. Looks like an above average fantasy contributor to me, especially if he sticks at 2B.
@thatguy: He is a prospect but he’s not the better than the guys I (or Mike) listed. He’s also a better OBP league player than a standard roto prospect. I do think you’re underselling the strikeouts… it was at 26% at AA last year -that isn’t likely to drop has he moves up to AAA and the majors and his ability to stick at even 2B is in doubt.
He had an extremely hot April and May in 2018 but after that he hit .219 which is much closer to his 2017 .233.If you want to comp his slash line to someone… Dan Uggla circa 2011. It’s possible Biggio comes up and has a hot 150 – 200 AB but otherwise he’s just going to be a fringe guy that everyone takes in later rounds hoping he’ll have a lucky BABIP season.
@BoBtheMule: Tough to ding a guy too much for a 26% k rate his first go around in AA. He’s not a super prospect, so don’t treat him like one. He moved up to AA, showed major improvement on his 2017 numbers, got figured out, and now we will see how he adjusts. It’s pretty universally acknowledged that last year was a big step forward for him. Development is pretty cyclical except with generational talent and washouts. Biggio did what would be expected of an above average prospect taking on his first major challenge in professional baseball at the AA level
@thatguy:
He’s a top 150 prospect based on his average rank across the 9 lists he showed up on… There are guys he could keep that are better.
I think I have Lowe, Bohm, and Gohara pretty well ahead of Biggio in my rankings, so I’d go with one of those three.
Is Nick Madrigal Dansby Swanson part 2? I’ll let someone else find out.
Ooh yeah…that’s possible!
Awesome to see bobthemule’s work here. We have played in leagues together for almost a couple decades now, and for many years, collaborated together co-owning teams. In 2015, I was honored to be the best man at his wedding.
In collaborating with him, I was constantly in awe of his prowess in ranking and research, and his wizardry with google docs and excel.
Maybe not quite the wiseass writer that razzball typically has, but if this dude wanted to write for a site, readers would be better fantasy players for it. Great to see your work recognized, “Bob”.
Nice!
Nice job and thanks for the work
Thanks Al!