The schedule in MLB seems totally bonkers. It’s because of this that I’m going to focus on the early slate for this Saturday of action. There are four games on the late slate, which is acceptable, but doesn’t provide a ton of content (or prime time viewing), especially when there’s a Coors games mixed in as part of the fun. For those that don’t know, you’re either staking Coors and hoping it hits like gangbusters, or fading it and hoping it’s a dud. That choice is yours. Charlie Morton is your top pitcher on the evening and pairing him up with someone is no easy feat. Alex Wood is at home, but facing the Braves. I’d probably pair him with Domingo German and hope he tames the Mets. So, focusing on the early start times, we have Blake Snell ($23,200) at home vs. the Mariners. Snell has been a dreamboat of late, totalling two earned runs in his last four starts while striking out 35 in 24.3 IP. That my friends, is the smell of victory. Snell just shut out Seattle, in Seattle over 6 IP and struck out 12. Somehow he got a No Decision from that gem, but hopefully with home field today he can earn that “W”. Either way, you want to lock him in for cash games and consider him as an anchor to GPP lineups as well.
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David Price, SP: $18,000 – Price bugs the crap out of me. Living in New England and listening to his comments, his attacks on HOFs, etc, his act is old and I’d want him nowhere near my team if I had the choice. However, he has kinda pitched well of late and the White Sox are no great shakes. When pairing someone with Snell, for cash games, the Price is right.
Trevor Cahill, SP: $15,800 – When pairing for GPPs we can a little more cute and cheap. Cahill has been surprisingly decent so far this year with a FIP (3.05) barely above his ERA (2.77) he’s also rocking an almost 9 k-rate. KC roughed him up a little last time out, in KC, but they still have the 24th worst team OPS in baseball, so odds are Cahill can bounce back at home. The only caveat to this play is KC doesn’t strike out. They have the fewest team strikeouts in the majors by a decent amount. Cahill might be cheap, but his upside is also a bit limited.
Dan Straily, SP: $13,800 – I was all over Straily last time out in San Diego and boy did he burn me. Well, I’m doubling down, this time in Crayola Canyon. Maybe Straily just likes his home cooking. The fact remains that San Diego has the second most strikeouts in the league and the second worst team OPS (worst is MIA, so Tyson Ross is a decent play here as well, but more pricey obviously).
Xander Bogaerts, IF: $8,900 – I’m in love with what the Red Sox new approach has done for Xander and his power numbers. Consider me sold. Carlos Rodon will be making his return from the DL in this one and I don’t expect the friendly confine of Fenway Park to be very friendly to Mr. Rodon. I know Grey just told you to BUY, but I’d sit this one out as it could get ugly. Think, 7 ER in 4 IP ugly.
Marcus Semien, IF: $8,500 – Danny Duffy has been less than good (5.81 ERA) and his FIP says he should be even worse (6.06). None of that is a good thing unless you happen to be a hitter opposing him. Semien carries the power upside to swing a GPP, so load him up.
Eduardo Nunez, IF: $7,600 – Nunez isn’t a world beater, but he provides some nice salary relief to load up elsewhere, maybe for a J.D. Martinez for instance. I’m just looking to squeak Sawx in wherever I can.
Yonder Alonso, IF: $7,300 – Mike Fiers is scraping the bottom of the barrell for pitchers today, so an Indians stack could be sneaky value. I imagine a lot of folks will be on the Sox, which may leave some Indians underowned. Alonso boasts the power and the platoon advantage to make a very nice play today.
Miguel Sano, IF/OF: $7,200 – Speaking of power, Sano has it in bunches and he’s priced very cheaply. He’s even cheaper than Yolmer Sanchez! Skaggs has been pretty decent so far this year, but it only takes one mistake to Sano for him to payoff at this price.
Michael Brantley, OF: $8,900 – Again about that Indians stack, besides Jose Ramirez and Lindor, everyone seems very reasonably priced. As hot as Brantley has been I expected him to be priced higher.
Justin Upton, OF: $8,100 – Here’s another player I expected to be priced higher, I would think low $9k anyway. The average could be a little higher, sure, but 14 dongs is nothing to shake a stick at. Kyle Gibson has come back to earth a bit and may have another visit from the regression fairies on the horizon.
Marcell Ozuna, OF: $7,700 – Ozuna get hot? Eh, maybe, maybe not, but he is facing Luis Castillo, the human BP machine. He’s been so bad, even Ozuna should be able to do something against him.
Starling Marte, OF: $7,300 – Um, does FantasyDraft still think Marte is on the DL? Did they just forget about him? This is an insane discount and makes Marte basically an auto start. Plug and play!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The early games look pretty clear with only a chance for rain in Chicago for the Cubbies game, but it looks like it should play.
Doing Lines In Vegas
David Price and the Red Sox are the biggest favorites on the early slate at -235. Trevor Cahill and the As are close behind at -190 though. Don’t sleep on Cahill. The SEA/TB game and SD/MIA game each have the lowest over/under at 7.5 runs. Snell, Straily and Ross are all in play there. The highest over/under is in the LAA/MIN game at 9 runs.
