My friends, welcome back from your DFS break if you didn’t play last Friday, Saturday, or Sunday…oh who are we kidding, you’ve been tying off and tapping that fantasy vein so much since the second half started, we should probably get you checked for infection. Well, I’ve seen Trainspotting so let’s avoid that come down process that leads to creepy babies crawling along the ceiling for you and keep you DFS juiced. Today’s third most expensive pitcher is Adam Wainwright, so the world is trying to tell you something: start Adam Wainwright. Wait, no! The world is trying to tell you it’s a tourney play kinda day. I’d avoid cash play today and stay in the warm GPP waters. But of course, that’s not what my title is about. My title is pointing you to Josh Tomlin. Tomlin’s a control freak with a minute 1.06 BB/9 with an alright K rate of 6.77 per 9. His big issue is the long ball as he has HR/FB rates of someone pitching BP for the Home Run Derby. Thankfully he gets to pitch against the Giants tonight in AT&T Park, a stadium that ranks last for HR factor. Speaking of, Giants, you might wanna tap Cleveland’s shoulder about a trade or something here…anyhoo, enough of me playing GM, let’s play DFS. Here’s my hot summer taeks for this Monday FD slate…
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Jon Lester, SP: $18,800 – Things that are hard to quantify: how many licks it takes to get to the center of a tootsie-pop, how much my wife actually likes me from minute to minute, and momentum in baseball. The Cubs bats just clobbered the Orioles after management traded for Jose Quintana and the pitching followed. I see a rejuvenated team that sees management wanting them to make another push and a vet pitcher like Lester can ride that as well. He’s my top arm for tonight and I don’t mind pairing him and Tomlin. McCullers is great, but he’s been shake of late and the Mariners have too many good bats for me to go all in.
Brent Suter, SP: $12,400 – He’s not this good, but when a pitcher is on a good streak, you don’t fight him to stop it. When he’s locating, he’s money. When he’s not, well…he’s whatever he is that’s kept him out of the majors until last year as he’s nearing 28.
Anthony Rizzo, IF: $9,200 – The Cubs are gonna be a popular stack, especially the lefties. I’ll just mention Rizzo along with Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Ian Happ here and be on my way. You know what to do against Julio Teheran (6.02 xFIP vs LHHs this year).
Adrian Beltre, IF: $8,100 – Firstly and foremostly, it’s a Coors day. Secondly and next up after foremostly, you don’t need to play Coors to have a good day. As I said, it’s a tourney day and that’s for the simple reasoning that BALvsTEX has the same O/U as COLvsSD. But of course, that’s what happens when Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman are the dueling dumpster fires for the game. All your Ranger and Oriole belong to us. Gimme Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, and Shin-Soo Choo at the very least and feel free to sprinkle in Manny Machado, Adam Jones, and Jonathan Schoop from the birds.
Steve Pearce, IF: $6,800 – Cheap power for a guy that loves hitting lefties for his career. Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start in over 6 weeks, I’ll take the under on 5 innings from him on the day and lots of rust while he is in. Get you some, Pearce.
George Springer, OF: $10,800 – On a day like today, you’ll likely be able to afford him if you wanna and that goes for all Astros. Again, major tourney day here and it’s not news that the Astros are in a good matchup, but I’d feel silly at least not mentioning their existence.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $8,000 – I’m not big on going all in on the Tigers today, but Martinez has too much power. I’m not missing out when he gets to face a lefty.
Khris Davis, OF: $7,600 – Odorizzi has had relatively severe reverse splits for most of his career and he’s homer prone to begin with this year. I’ll take my shot with Khrush riding one out today.
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $7,200 – Hasn’t been a great play much this year but with Jordan Zimmermann in town, that’s about to change. Jordan has been a mess against both sides of the plate this year, but Cain is my bae from this game today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We have a few spots with a chance for pop-up thunderstorms, because, summer. MIL@PIT could see some showers as could CHC@ATL. Miami could see some sprinkles as well, but you know, they can just close the roof. Deity of choice bless the invention of retractable roofs! None of these showers should do anything but cause a minor delay.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas is taking this whole juiced ball thing to heart. There isn’t a single game with an over/under of less than 8.5 runs. The Indians playing in San Francisco have the honor of lowest total with that mark. Vegas even has the TEX@BAL game with an 11 run total, the same as the Coors field game! That game might make for a nice pivot stack in GPPs. Lance McCullers and the ‘Stros are the day’s biggest favorite at -230. Vegas expects them to spank Ariel and the Mariners. The Rockies are the second biggest favorites today as they face off at home against Perdomo and the Pads. Sounds like a nice lounge band name if I ever heard one.
