Do you trust Yu? Should you? Let’s find out.
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Razzball DFS. We have ourselves a juicy 9 game slate with what seems to be a perfect combo of aces and dumpster fires. It’s a far cry from yesterday’s Jacob deGrom slate (or Trevor Williams), as this slate has 4 ‘aces’ and Coors (YAY!). Did you catch my sarcasm?
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Let me start by saying, since this is my inaugural writeup here on Razzball, I believe it’s beneficial to get as creative as possible with Coors (yay!) slates. Our goal is to get the most bang for our buck, and like fellow Razzball newbie MikeJacob711 pointed out on Sunday, the expected boost in production for players in Coors Field is already baked into each player’s FanDuel price, therefore, it’s not always going to be beneficial to load up on Coors bats. Having said that (Curb; Season 7 Ep. 10; hilarious), some days there’s plenty of +EV (plus expected value) to be had .
Okay, let’s boogie. I LOVE this Road Warriors (Blue Jays) @ Rangers game. It’s possible I like it too much, but I’m willing to die on this hill tonight. Usually, I trust nobody in the Rangers lineup, yet my mouth waters when I see these prices on both sides of this matchup.
This slate has a nice top 4 on the mound with Tyler Glasnow ($10,700 vs BOS), Yu Darvish ($10,200 vs SFG), Lucas Giolito ($9,600 vs SEA), and Clayton Kershaw ($9,000 vs OAK). Out of this group I’m going full on Yu Darvish, followed by Lucas Giolito.
Before we start, I just want to say that I’m a fan of a Padres stack if you’re fading Coors. I’m not going to mention the San Diego hitters below, but that’s only because a Padres stack vs Aaron Sanchez should always be considered even with Tatis out.
Starting Pitcher to Target:
Yu Darvish, SP: ($10,200) – As a Cubs fan, I watched this guy settle into an absolute dominant 26 game stretch, beginning post all-star break in 2019 through 2020. In those 26 games he had a 211/21 K/BB. Yes, that’s right! 2nd only to Gerrit Cole in K/BB%. Now, the reason I bring this up is Darvish seemed to finally figure out that his stuff is so good that he doesn’t need to make guys chase. He never had a K/BB% below 2.8%. In that 26 game stretch it was 1.2%. I think he needed that game to get his legs under him in a new environment. Fire him up with run support and a game under his belt.
Lucas Giolito, SP ($9,600) – I like Glasnow because he’s the most expensive on a Coors slate and will be low owned vs Boston, but Giolito is $1,100 cheaper vs a weaker lineup (on paper) and looks like a man on a mission and good for 6 innings with 7 Ks. Who knows what to expect from Paxton? But he is a Lefty and we know by now that the White Sox like facing southpaws. Expect some run support and Giolito to put his big boy pants on to lead them to a W.
*Starting Pitcher: Dart Throw
Freddy Peralta, SP: ($6,400) – Peralta strikes guys out. The Cubs strike out a lot (26.1% VS RHP in 2020). If you wanna take a gamble to fit in the beloved Coors bats (or Padres, or Mets), this is the place to go. If he can limit the walks, Peralta could be a 5 inning, 8 K guy. Again, this is a gamble that could be tough if the Cubs show patience, but if you’re a GPP guy… He (most likely) won’t go too deep, but 35+ FanDuel point upside isn’t out of the question.
Nate Lowe, C/1B: ($3,300) – Lowe looks pretty locked in and as you’ll gather, I’m on this Blue Jays @ Rangers matchup as a place to get some mega points away from Colorado. Tanner Roark’s fly ball % (FB%) jumped up last season, as has his hard hit percentage (HARD%) the past two seasons. I like Lowe as part of a Rangers stack that could be low owned.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., C/1B: ($3,000) – This dude is ready to pop. Dane Dunning isn’t the worst pitcher in the world, he’s actually got potential, but Vlad can hit anyone and I’m ready for that first 3 hit, 2 xBH game where he sends one 450 feet into the stands with a couple guys on. If you have the chance, watch him hit, it’s fun.
Marcus Semien, 2B (SS): ($3,100) – Get em while they’re hot. Love this game; love Semien leading off. If you want to save $1,000 at prime position, Semien is your man.
- Bichette should be low owned, so if you really want to differentiate, pop him in there while everyone is off him.
Josh Rojas, 2B(SS): ($3,000) – Oh how short the fantasy baseball memory is. This guy raked in the minors in 2019, like, super raked. He had an OPS over 1.000 through 105 games with 23 HR and 33 SB at AA and AAA prior to being called up.In the lost season of 2020 we have to realize he wasn’t just sitting on his hands all year. At 26 years old he is now off the radar of many. That might be a mistake. The dude is a ball player. Look at the lineup today and if he’s hitting at the top, PLUG & PLAY.
Cavan Biggio, 2B: ($2,700) – Another part of a nice Blue Jays stack. He bopped yesterday and I think this game might be the place to cash. There’s a lot of plays here, but Biggio should be part of it.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B: ($2,900) – I honestly can’t believe I’m writing this. I’m not a fan, I don’t believe he is in the midst of a breakout, however, he’s squaring up the ball, getting on base, and should be at the top of a lineup with power behind him vs Tanner Roark. Like I said, I like this game a lot from a hitter perspective.
Mike Brosseau, 3B(2B): ($2,100) – .313/.350/.589 slash line career vs Lefties. Martin Perez isn’t the scariest lefty out there, and if Kevin Cash is still being Kevin Cash, Brosseau could be hitting in the middle of the lineup. He’s basically free, making him a great guy to use as a one off, or a Rays stack that shouldn’t be too highly owned.
Trevor Story, SS: ($4,100) – I had to do a double take when I saw Story as the 3rd highest priced SS. Yes, there’s Seager and Tatis, but It’s Coors, it’s a good matchup and if he sees this same matchup in July, he’ll probably be $5,000. Story is a baller, he’s going to ball out sooner or later. It’s early in the season but he could start one of his streaks at any time. I think that time is tonight.
Francisco Lindor, SS: ($3,800) – Obviously Seager is a great play any day of the week, but today, Lindor will be low owned and it’ll be hard to get him cheaper than this from here on out. I love a Mets play, which is why it’s okay to fade Coors if you tend to do so. There’s many places to go and Lindor got that first game out of the way. Fire it up.
Ketel Marte, OF(2B): ($4,500) – He’s expensive, but the guy hits the ball so hard and is not the player we saw in 2020. He’s back and should’ve been a 3rd round pick in seasonal leagues in my opinion. The price is high, but so is the potential. If you play Marte, play the guys around him and differentiate elsewhere.
Joey Gallo, OF: ($4,100) – If Tanner Roark’s rising fly ball rate is real, this guy is the main benefactor. He’s been in 70% of my main cashing lineups the first weekend (Fri/Sat) and I’m not fading him until he forces me to.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: ($3,300) – Anyone see the hanging slider Gerrit Cole threw him on Opening Day? No? Word on the street is it was just spotted over Hartford, Connecticut. This dude has mad power and he’ll be a great addition to the Blue Jays stack. I can’t believe this game has a 9.5 Vegas total.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: ($2,300) – Check the lineup, he was out on Monday. It seems to just be a day off and a guy who can hit like this at this price is almost a plug & play in my opinion. He’s the perfect guy to throw in the OF on a day like today when you need to spend elsewhere. He’s too cheap.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing to fear, the baseball gods are here. I feel like we’re all being rewarded for last season because I don’t recall 3 straight days of perfect weather like this in early April. Enjoy and rest easy.
Doing Lines In Vegas
If I’m a betting man (which I am), I’m taking the over on the Blue Jays @ Rangers game. Right now it’s 9.5. I’d take the over if it were 11 runs. I feel like I’m missing something, the wind will be piping out and there’s a ton of power in this game. Bet the over.
Stacks & Fades