What’s up everybody? Final FanDuel Friday before the AS Break :*(, and we’ve got a massive 15 game slate on FanDuel. I’ll lead with the most boring of hot-takes ever; Alex Cobb is not an ace. Please, please, put down your pitchforks and hear me out. Back in his glory days Cobb threw a power change that was so good it earned itself the nickname “The Thing”. Sadly, The Thing has disappeared and Cobb has struggled to the tune of a 6.67 ERA this year. SIERA says he hasn’t been THAT bad (4.58), but, spoiler alert, that’s not ideal either. So why then, are the Rangers‘ bats priced as though they’re facing Chris Sale?? You can go straight down the lineup, starting with Shin-Soo Choo leading off for $3,300 being the most expensive. Both sides of the plate have hit Cobb hard this year, but the Rangers lefties of Choo, Nomar Mazara ($3,100), Rougned Odor ($3,000), and Joey Gallo ($2,800) have a nice combination of floor and super upside pop. This might be a super duper chalky stack, but the combo of not too high priced pitching and Rangers’ prices makes it possible to fit in some fun high priced bats. Let’s take a look at some other plays that caught my eye.
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Rick Porcello, SP: $9,600 – Pitching is not as fun as yesterday’s Ace Day, but we’ll get through this together. Porcello definitely lacks the K upside, but I really like what he’s done to fuel his rebound from a down 2017. He’s increased his slider usage from 16% last year to a career high 25% this year. But wait, there’s more! The Blue Jays have struggled this year vs pitchers that throw a high percentage of quality slide pieces. Anyone know where I can get a note to Porcello?
Madison Bumgarner, SP: $9,400 – Bumgarner hasn’t been in tip-top shape yet this year, but I think this is a sneaky nice spot to close out the first half on a high note. Oakland is bottom 10 in K’s vs LHP and just middle of the pack in wOBA and WRC+. The only hitters who stand out are lefty specialists Mark Cahna and Josh Phegley, so I’ll put my jellybeans on MadBum to take care of business at home.
Dallas Keuchel, SP: $9,000 – Keuchel rounds out our 2015 MLB All Star roster. This is all about the matchup, as he faces the Tigers. Detroit is bottom 3 in the league in wOBA and WRC+ vs RHPs for the season, and that includes when they had Miggy and Leonys Martin in the lineup. Those guys are gone, so I think Keuchel is a really nice Cash game play.
Jose Martinez, C/1B: $3,100 – The Cardinals will face Matt Harvey, who I will admit had been a lot better since getting out of New York. But the skills haven’t changed much and I really like the price of the Cardinals’ bats.
Ryon Healy, C/1B: $3,200 – Cheap 1B with pop. Healy’s struggled some, but what better way to bust out of a slump than a trip to Coors?
Yoan Moncada, 2B: $3,300 – There are times when Moncada’s 34% K-rate scares me off, despite his potential. Today vs Brad Keller, and his 13% K-rate, is not one of those days.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,300 – Facing James Shields, I love getting this kind of pop at this price.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: $3,300 – Harvey allows 40% hard contact and over .2oo ISO vs LHBs for the year. Carpenter has shrugged his early season struggled and is back to mashing.
Maikel Franco, 3B: $2,800 – Franco’s a super streaky player, but guess what? He’s hot. And cheap. And facing Wei-Yin Chen. Sign me up.
Charlie Blackmon, OF – $4,200 – It’s a Coors day and he’s facing a mediocre RHP. Frankly, I’m not sure why he’s not more expensive.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $3,400 – Christian Bergman on the mound for the Mariners in Coors and that strikes fear into no one. I’m not sure why CarGo is priced down, but I’ll take it.
Rhys Hoskins, OF: $3,500 – Power righty facing the Anti-Stud, Wei-Yin Chen.
Tommy Pham, OF: $3,000 – Should be leading off for the Cardinals. Combining him, with Carpenter, Martinez, and one other Cardinals’ bat (Ozuna), makes for a nice cheap stack that might be a pivot from the Rangers.
Aaron Altherr, OF: $2,000 – If you need that value bat, Altherr’s your boy. Lefty specialist, but make sure you check the lineup to make sure he’s starting.
Andrew Toles, OF: $2,000 – One of the Dodgers’ top hitting prospects, Toles doesn’t strike out a lot, which means he’s putting the ball in play. Good things happen when you put the ball in play. Same as Altherr, just check the lineup before lock.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Only rain on the slate is a chance of storms later in the Braves/Diamondbacks game. Nothing extreme in terms of temperature or wind. The temperature in the Royals/White Sox and Reds/Cardinals games will the high at 90 degrees.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are the highest favorite at -250, with the next highest being Porcello and the Red Sox at -190. No line in the Colorado/Mariners game as of this writing, but I’ll be surprised if the total isn’t at least 11. That would be the highest on the slate, with Toronto/Boston, Texas/Baltimore, and Yankees/Indians coming in at 9.5.
