On the surface, the pitching side of this slate looks pretty trashy. But once you dive a little deeper you’ll find… Ewwwwww! Gross! Yu Darvish is the only legit ace on tonight’s slate and he’s in Coors. On such a massive 15 game slate you’d expect to have at least a handful of solid places to turn for pitching. Tonight, however, that’s not quite the case. Trevor Rogers ($10,000) is the most expensive pitcher and should be a semi-solid option tonight in St. Louis.
On such a large slate with a lack of solid pitching options, I expect offense will be potent tonight. Vegas thinks so as well judging by the fact that only 2 of the 30 teams (Marlins and Cardinals) have an implied run total under 4. Last night, we saw no real stacks that paid off as offense was down across the land. Tonight, I expect some teams to go off and the key is going to be getting some leverage by plugging in the correct lower owned stacks and pairing them with the right guy(s) on the mound. I guess that’s the goal every night, but, ya know.
The way to go yesterday was to fade the highly owned Padres vs Austin Gomber. Tonight, that’s going to be very hard to do. The Padres have a 6.9 implied run total (my lord) and face Chi Chi Gonzalez on a mid 90 degree day in Coors Field. So make sure if you’re going the Padres route you differentiate as much as possible in your other 5 or 6 lineup spots.
Good luck tonight, and remember to stay positive and visualize that bank roll spiking like Bitcoin in April. Visualize your success! You HAVE to believe it to be true before it can happen. Go with your gut and do it with confidence. Let’s go!
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Starting Pitcher Targets
Trevor Rogers, SP: ($10,000) – He’s the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and has earned that honor, especially compared to the rest of the options tonight. Rogers’ 15% swinging-strike rate and 69.9% contact rate are 12th and 13th among SP this season. However, the Cardinals are a top 5 team in baseball vs LHP in terms of K%, BB%, OBP, SLG, Runs, ISO, and wOBA. I don’t think Rogers is a threat to get blown up, but I do believe this could be a spot where the Cardinals make him throw enough pitches to prevent him from going deep into the ball game. That, along with a possible limited K upside makes Rogers a play, but not the top play on tonight’s slate.
Yu Darvish, SP: ($9,000) – A hot day in Coors is not ideal for a starting pitcher. Darvish has faced the Rockies twice this season, once at home and the other in Coors. The Coors game was his shortest outing of the season due to pitch count though he didn’t give up a run. At home vs the Rockies he went 7 strong with 10 Ks. Darvish is close to as steady as they come and if his ownership is going to be way down, sign me up for a high risk / high reward matchup.
Mike Minor, SP: ($8,800) – Minor’s expected numbers are better than his ERA shows. He currently sits at the best K% of his career and has the ability to put together quality outings. Minor has 17 Ks in 11.2 innings vs the Tigers this year, who are the worst run-producing team in baseball vs LHP while striking out at the highest rate 29.9%. It’s hard to trust him, but on a night like tonight with a very solid matchup, he might be 1 of 5 guys you feel comfortable plugging into your lineups.
Dart Throw
Lance McCullers, SP ($7,500) – Coming back from a shoulder issue, McCullers threw 64 pitches in his rehab outing. He will obviously be limited in this one. However, he gets a high K upside matchup with the Rangers at home, and his price allows you to do pretty much whatever you want with your lineup. If he can get through 5 strong with 7ish Ks, will that mid-30s FanDuel points be enough on a slate-like tonight? It could be.
- I’m not mentioning any Padres below as they have an implied total to almost 7 and don’t need mentioning. Just be aware they will be very highly owned and you’re going to have to find some low-owned stacks and/or one-offs (some of whom will be mentioned) to gain back the leverage lost from the ownership of the Padres.
- The players below are guys I think (not entirely sure but going off of multiple different sources) who should be below 10% owned and should be top 5 plays at their position (top 15 for OF).
First Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., C/1B (3B): ($4,700) – I don’t think much needs to be said.
Bobby Bradley, C/1B: ($3,400) – His price has risen immensely this past week which should keep his ownership way down vs Matt Harvey. The Indians as a whole will be highly owned, but with the other options at C/1B today, Bradley should be a nice leverage piece of the stack.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies, 2B: ($3,300) – Albies has been pretty awesome the past month and has 8 extra-base hits in 12 June games. He’s a better overall hitter vs Lefties, especially at home, and Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t been himself since the start of May.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: ($2,700) – Another gut who thrives vs Lefties and faces a guy in Mike Minor who gives up tons of fly balls as well as 11 homers vs righties this season. Schoop is hot and should look to keep it going tonight.
Third Base
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: (3,400) – Coming off a night where his ownership was high vs Lester, Hayes should be back down below 8-10% and gets possibly an even better upside matchup vs Patrick Corbin. The struggle is real vs RHH for Corbin. As a whole, righties are slashing .312/.380/.550 with 12 homers against him. Ke’Bryan is a great one-off or tonight.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: ($3,300) – Rogers is prone to fly balls and hard contact vs righties. Arenado will be a forgotten man tonight with Machado, Jose Ramirez at the top of the 3B board. Another great one-off, Arenado could get you that leverage out of the UTIL spot or if you fade Ramirez / Machado who will both be very highly owned.
Short Stop
Bo Bichette, SS: ($4,100) – This team scores plenty of runs and Montgomery gives up above average fly balls and hard contact to righties. Both Bo and Vlad should be lower owned than most days, tonight you can take advantage of that.
Eugenio Suarez, SS (3B): ($3,100) – Anderson limits fly balls but when hitters elevate the ball they do it hard. His 42.1% hard-hit rate vs Righties is mouth-watering. Cincinnati as a whole is going to be lower owned than they probably should be. Get Suarez in there with some other Reds and see if we can’t make this one of our best bet leverage stacks tonight in Milwaukee.
Outfield
Nick Castellanos, OF: ($4,300) – Read Eugenio Suarez.
Christian Yelich, OF: ($3,900) – I can’t get a grasp on where his ownership will be but he stole a base yesterday which is a great sign in terms of health. Castillo has looked a bit better his last two times out but I think there’s going to be plenty of runs in this game and Yelich is long overdue for one of those classic Yelich games.
Tyler O’Neill, OF: ($3,000) – Another forgotten bat tonight due to the matchup and so many other options. It’s hard to plug a guy like him in when there’s plenty of other hitters in what seem to be better matchups. However, on a night like tonight where leverage is key, a mini-stack of O’Neill / Arenado might just pay off.
Favorite Stacks: Padres (very highly owned), Reds, Red Sox, Blue Jays
Fades: (Any team I put here goes nuts but we’ll try again) Nationals, Royals
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Seems to be clear across the land with no real concerns. Wind might be a factor today. There seems to be a pretty heavy wind blowing out in the Yankees @ Blue Jays game. Wind blowing in from center at 12-16 mph in the Orioles @ Indians game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
BOS at ATL: o/u 9 – OVER
