As we start to wind down the season, it will important to recognize teams and players who are still pushing for the playoffs or single season awards. Teams with nothing to play for will start to rest guys and remove them late in games. We don’t want to be sacrificing precious ABs because of oversight. There should be plenty of offense to go around tonight. There is an abundance of mediocre pitching tonight and many of them find themselves in hitters parks.
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Starting Pitcher
Julio Urias, SP: $10,300 – The kid gloves are finally off for Urias and he is enjoying a break out season. He has a 2.98 ERA to go along with a 26.7% k-rate while walking 5% of batters. Arizona is 27th in wRC+ and has racked up the 6th highest k-rate as a team since August 1st.
Tylor Megill, SP: $7,800– Megill has a .226 wOBA allowed vs RHH, and short of two switch hitters, the Cardinals lineup is all right-handed. The red birds are also 20th in wRC+ at 95 this season.
Catcher / First Base
Brad Miller, C/1B: $2,400 – Alec Mills has .374 wOBA against LHH vs a .268 wOBA against RHH in his career. Similar numbers in 2021 as that number slightly rises to .381. Miller has excelled in his platoon role this season, swatting 18 homers with a .780 OPS across 329 plate appearances. He’ll be at home tonight and Citizens Bank Park is the 5th best park for left-handed power.
Pete Alonso, C/1B: $3,800 – Alonso is having one of the quieter 30 homer seasons that I can remember. Likely due to his rookie campaign where he hit 53 and his expectations are high. However, he’ll get Jon Lester tonight. Lester is in the twilight of his career and has allowed a .510 slug and .376 wOBA against RHH.
Second Base
Max Muncy, 2B: $4,000 – Muncy during his career has reverse splits (140 wRC+ against LHP vs 129 against RHP). Madison Bumgarner has continued his struggles this year despite his 7-inning no-hitter. He has 4.66 ERA across 129.1 IP with an uninspiring 13.9 K-BB.
Ramon Urias, 2B: $2,200 – Urias has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles. The 27-year-old rookie has a 10%-barrel rate, 41.1% hard hit rate, and has slashed .275/.359/.410. He has hit 5 of 7 home runs against LHP this year. He’ll get a lefty tonight in the launching pad of Camden Yards.
Third Base
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,700 – This season, at age 36, Turner already his 2nd most PA in his career and it’s been a good one. He has .837 OPS with 25 homers and 157 R+RBI, all despite his BABIP being 23 pts lower than his career average.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,400 – Mike Minor has given up at least 3 ERs in his 5 of his last 7 starts. Chapman has struggled this season, but since August 1st he’s racked up a 143 wRC+. He is dealing with a leg injury sure he’s in the lineup.
Short Stop
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $4,400 – Scott Kazmir is back in MLB after a 4-year hiatus. He’s only thrown 7 innings so far, so we don’t have much to work with. However, he’s struggled at AAA this season and has had a bumpy ride in his 7 MLB innings. It’s unclear how long he’ll go in this one as he last pitched in the bigs on June 4th. Even if it turns into a bullpen game, those tend to be higher scoring.
Didi Gregorius, SS: $2,500 – See Brad Miller above about Alec Mills’ struggles against lefties. Didi has had dreadful injury filled season but his pull happy approach plays well at Citizens bank.
Outfield
Aaron Judge / Joey Gallo / Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $4,300 / $3,000 / $4,000– John Means has the 2nd highest HR/9 of regular starters since the beginning of 2019 at 1.7. Camden Yards is one the best hitting parks in the game. Gallo in his career has the same wRC+ vs LHP as RHP, so don’t be scared off with facing a lefty.
Kyle Tucker / Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,400 / $3,600 – Kohei Arihara has been brutal in his first 36.2 IP. Batters have made contact 92.5% of the time in the strike zone. He owns a 5.89 ERA (6.33 FIP) and his barrel rate is almost as high as high K rate (14.3 vs 14.6). Woof.
Ryan Mountcastle / Trey Mancini, OF: $3,400 / $3,100 – It will be a hot and humid night in Baltimore. The ball will be flying and Nestor Cortes is giving up fly balls as a 49.2% this season.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Rain is forecasted in Atlanta during pregame with lessening chance thought game time. Be careful here and Atlanta has a quick trigger on postponing games. No other games should be affected.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Yankees (Nestor Cortes) at Orioles (John Means) O/U 8.5 runs scored – take the over. Current forecast is for hot and humid weather, perfect for scoring runs. The running dad joke is, “John Means home runs”. His career HR/9 is 1.67 over 328 IP, his 2021 mark is 1.78. He gives up a lot of fly balls (48.5%) and pitches in the 2nd best home run park over the last 3 seasons. Cortes, also gives a lot of fly balls (49.2%) with a career HR/9 of 2.01. Cortes and Means both have respectable overall numbers but with their profiles they give up runs in bunches. This has the makings of a high scoring night.
