Hard to believe we’re already ~60% of the way through the MLB season. I hope you all enjoyed hitting the reset button and the All-Star festivities. It’s back to the grind though and we should have a full 8-game slate. There is a ton of bad pitching to go around tonight. The Phillies are in good stacking spot and almost everyone in their lineup is viable. The Marlins are a sneaky stack in my opinion. They’re on the road in a hitters park against a mediocre pitcher. Their lack of offensive notoriety will keep ownership down. They’d make a good secondary stack to pair with the Phillies if you can manage it.
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Adam Wainwright, SP: $8,800 – The Cubs are 21st in wRC+ on the season and since June 1st, they are dead last. They also lead the in strikeouts over that time. Waino is not one he once was but he can still get it done. In his last start against the Cubs, he went 8 shutout innings with 7 k’s. That’ll do
Lance McCullers Jr., SP: $10,200 – Cleveland’s offense has been mediocre at best. They’re 21st in wRC+ and are last in the walks since June 1st. McCullers has the best combo of talent and matchup on the slate but you’re going to pay for it. His price is fine but I don’t think he will be that much better than Wainwright for the price difference.
Rhys Hoskins / J.T. Realmuto / Brad Miller, C/1B: $3,500 / $3,400 / $2,400- This will be the debut of Asher Wojciechowski for the Yankees. Asher’s best season was in 2019 where posted a 4.92 ERA in 82.1 IP. His career ERA is just shy of 6. He doesn’t strike a lot of guys out and his 28.9% career groundball rate isn’t going to get it done in Yankee Stadium.
Nate Lowe, C/1B: $2,500 – Matt Manning has really struggled this year, both in AAA and the majors. He has 8.07 ERA in 32.1 in AAA, and holds a 6.95 ERA in his young 22 IP MLB career. That’s not great Bob.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $3,800 – Eli Morgan is on the mound for Cleveland in this one. He is 26.1 IP into his MLB career and is currently sporting a 7.86 ERA. Small sample size? Sure, but there isn’t much in his minor league numbers that should make us think he’ll ever have an ERA below 4.
Isan Diaz, 2B: $2,000 – Erick Fedde is on the mound for the Nationals tonight. Fedde might be one of the most inconsistent players in MLB. After post 3 straight scoreless outings, he’s given up 20 ERs in his last 14.2 IP. Ultimately, he’s just not any good. Diaz isn’t much better, he’s struggled over his ~350 MLB plate appearances. He does have plenty of power though and offers a high risk, high reward play at very limited ownership.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $3,100 – He has 2 homers since the All-Star break and looks to build a strong first half. Dylan Cease seems to have found something in this 3rd season but is still prone to blow ups. He has 4 starts with at least 5 ERs including one against Donaldson’s Twins.
Jean Segura, 3B: $2,900 – Segura doesn’t have much power, which limits his DFS appeal. Leading off in what should be a high score game should give him the bump he needs.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $2,800 – He has been on a run of good form of late, knocking 3 homers in his last 7 games. Cease has erratic command at times and as I mentioned he is prone to blow ups.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,500 – At 24 years old he already finds himself among the games best hitters. His $3,500 price tag boarders on an insult, especially with a home matchup against a struggling rookie.
Adam Duvall, OF: $3,100 – Riding a 3 game hitting streak into this one. Duvall has been hitting in the clean up spot. A nice place to be for $3,100 against a meager starter in a hitters park.
Adolis Garcia, OF: $3,100 – He’s been slow out the gate since the All-Star break. He’ll get Matt Manning on the mound tonight. He’s been overmatched at the big league level. Exactly what the doctor ordered to get back on track.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,500 – The Phillies are putting Cristopher Sanchez on the bump to start this one. Sanchez has been good in his 4.1 IP, with his longest start being 3. The Phillies pen is atrocious and this one could get out of hand fast if Sanchez struggles.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
All clear on the weather front. Houston has the highest chance of rain at 15% but they do have a roof just in case.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Miami (TBA) vs Washington (Erick Fedde) O/U 7.5 runs scored- take the over. Miami has yet to announce to a starter but it will most likely be a spot start or a bullpen day. Fedde has given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his last four starts. 7.5 is far too low for this one.