What’s up, everybody? Happy Friday and welcome to the first full slate Friday. FanDuel has us set up for a 12 game slate and there’s a lot to like. Overall, I’m not a big batter vs pitcher historical data guy. Don’t get me wrong, I still skim the data to see if anything jumps off the page, but usually, the sample size is too small to take anything away. However, I’m throwing all that out the window on Friday and jumping on the Freddie Freeman ($4,600) train because of what he’s done against Zack Wheeler. In 30 plate appearances versus Wheeler, Freeman is 10/19, with 3 doubles, 2 homers, and 10 walks for a triple slash of .526/.667/1.000. I really liked Zack Wheeler coming into the year, but so far the fastball command that I fell in love with in 2018 has disappeared. The walk rate on his fastball is up to 17.9% from 7.9% in 2018, albeit in a small sample. Let’s take a look at the rest of FanDuel’s Friday slate.
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Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,500 – The slate’s highest price pitcher, Carrasco, gets a nice matchup against the Royals. It’ll be on the cool side down at Kaufman Stadium, with temperatures just hitting the high 50s. Over the last three years, Carrasco’s done a decent job of controlling the running game, allowing just 37 stolen bases.
Patrick Corbin, SP: $10,000 – Corbin gets a matchup against the Pirates, where no one in the projected lineup has greater than a .181 ISO versus left-handed pitchers. Every batter also has a K% greater than 20%.
Chris Paddack, SP: $8,100 – Paddack is my favorite upside pitcher on this slate and he gets a nice matchup in Arizona and the humidor versus the Diamondbacks.
Brad Keller, SP: $7,800 – Keller faces the Cleveland Indians, and while they seem to have started coming out of their early slump, Keller looks like another nice priced down option if you’re looking to pay up for bats.
Trey Mancini, 1B: $4,100 – One of the few bright spots in the Orioles lineup, Mancini currently has a .412 ISO versus left-handed pitching (small sample), and gets a matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez who currently has a 13% BB% to go with his 15.2% K%.
Luke Voit, 1B: $4,100 – The Yankees get a matchup against Lucas Giolito, and Vegas has them at an implied team total of 5.8 runs. All Voit does is hit homers and trust me, that’s not a slight to him.
Brandon Belt, 1B: $3,000 – Going back to BvP here, where Belt is 9/25 versus Chad Bettis, who only strikes out 15% of the batters he faces. Belt should go relatively unowned, making him a decent GPP play.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,300 – Altuve and the Astros will face lefty Wade LeBlanc on Friday. The Astros overall should make for a nice little stack as they’re projected to have 8 right-handed batters in the lineup.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $2,800 – The Athletics/Rangers game has the highest game total on the slate, and while the Athletics prices are pretty high, the Rangers are on the lower end, making a game stack completely viable. Mike Fiers is on the mound for the Athletics, do I need to say anything more?
Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,300 – The Athletics have been en fuego and now head to Texas for a matchup with the Rangers and lefty Drew Smyly. While I’m happy to see Smyly finally healthy again, his 6.00 SIERA combined with the Rangers bullpen’s .364 wOBA allowed tells me to stack up the Athletics. My only complaint would be 5 of the guys projected to be in the lineup at OF only on FanDuel.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 3B: $2,900 – Cabrera is part of the cheap Rangers stack, but offers pop to boot having a .231 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2018.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,800 – This slate is such a good combination of pitchers that I like with decent matchups and bats I want to stack up with good matchups. Here we have the Red Sox facing David Hess. Hess hasn’t disappointed as bad as he did last year so far, but facing the Red Sox should help that out some.
Freddy Galvis, SS: $3,400 – Galvis has been one of the few bright spots for the Blue Jays’ offense so far, smacking three homers in the early going.
Khris Davis, OF: $4,600 – He’s mashing the ball right now with 9 homers in 16 games. He’s a must play.
Joey Gallo, OF: $4,200 – Power vs power in this game where Khris Davis faces Joey Gallo. You get a bomb! You get a bomb!
Andrew Benintendi, OF: $3,600 – Benintendi faces David Hess and will lead off for the potent Red Sox.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,300 – Choo will lead off for the Rangers against a bad righty in Fiers.
Chad Pinder, OF: $3,200 – Pinder should bat 5th for the Athletics today and if you’re stacking them up, he’s a must use. It helps that he’s hot batting .315 in the early going.
Ender Inciarte, OF: $2,900 – Inciarte is just too cheap as the leadoff man for the Braves.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The Tigers/Twins game was PPD on Thursday, and while we could have light rain in the Nationals/Pirates game, everywhere else looks like a go. Keep an eye on the wind direction in the Yankees/White Sox game. Currently, it’s forecasted at 15 mph blowing slightly out to left field, but if it shifts some it could just be a right to left wind that doesn’t aid homers.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Two big favorites tonight in the Red Sox -250 vs Orioles and Yankees -235 vs White Sox. We also have a couple of big totals on the slate with Athletics/Rangers at 10 runs and Red Sox/Orioles at 9.5. Nothing really stands out to be betting-wise, but if you’re going to force me to make a pick, I’ll take the under on 8 runs in the Indians/Royals game.
