What’s going on everyone, welcome back. This is our 5th installment of FanDuel DFS Sundays. I’ll eventually lose count and stop saying this. Until then welcome to #5. If you tuned into our 4th article last week, and made some of the plays I suggested, you might be richer today then you were last Sunday. I hope that is the case, this is why we do what we do. Don’t get me wrong, playing fantasy is fun, but DFS is more about grinding that ROI (return on investment) then it is about having a good time. Lets get back at it this week and try to win some more money. There are 2 pitchers I will be fading and 1 I will be targeting. What do you say we skip the small talk and get to it? Cool…
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Max Scherzer, SP: $12,00 This price is more then deGrom was in his 2nd to last start. deGrom has been virtually unhittable for years, Mad Max, while still dominate at times, is on a steady decline. He struggled last time out only scoring 15 fantasy points but 2 times before that he had 55. 55, a huge number. In his 2 previous starts, however, he has had less then 35. That is less then 3x value. If you have read my articles this year you know I like to go cheap at starting pitcher, if I can, so we can load up on bats. Today is no different. There are generally 3 layers to winning at MLB DFS. 1 rostering the right guys, 2 fading the right guys, and 3 (technically 3 A/B) rostering and fading the right guys based on ownership percentages. So you usually want the #2 SP performer on a given slate, but if you can get #3 much cheaper at a lower ownership percentage then you are sitting pretty. For reasons just stated we are going to fade Mad Max.
Tyler Mahle, SP: $9,300 There are a few players I have a soft spot for this year. They are either guys that I have invested in for cards, or guys that I targeted in my 30 team dynasty. I’ll typically know more about these guys then their own teams front offices. Tyler Mahle (did you know its pronounced like Mali and not Mall? Ok I said I know their baseball profile not how to say their names) is one of those guys. I inherited a bottom 5 team in a 30 man dynasty the night of restricted free agency. So I have had to make some moves based off of undervalued talent. Mahle was an easy one for me, but apparently not for my league.
Anyway, he has been dominating this year with a 35% K rate and a 1.75 ERA. In advanced stats that’s still a 2.80 FIP. It’s still early but that tells me he wont have a sub-2 ERA all year. He will keep his K rate over 30% and facing the Cubs today which are 4th in baseball with a 27% K rate he is set up for more success. I told you last week to fade the pitcher going against the Cubs as they were in the midst of a hot streak. Turns out that only lasted as long as the series with my Mets. Feel totally comfortable rostering Mahle in cash game and GPP lineups today. Since this is only a 10 game main slate I will be pumping out 1 cash lineup and just a few for GPPs. Its still early but I might have Mahle as the SP in every lineup I put out. There aren’t any great super cheap options and I feel like the field will be overweight on guys like Scherzer, Javier and Berrios. I feel really good about this matchup today, if you are reading this article you should too.
Cristian Javier, SP: $9,300 Javier’s price hasn’t quite caught up with his production yet. In his past 3 starts he has 49, 48 and 42. In a game vs the struggling Rays today who are in the bottom half in K% and BB% (meaning they strikeout a lot and aren’t walking as much). Javier has been great so far with a .87 ERA (1.75 FIP) he is striking out 33% of all batters faced while walking less then 8%. This is the Christian Javier the Astros hoped for. So why roster Mahle over Javier? Good question. There are really only 2 reasons. First is that Javier will be chalk. He will be very highly owned. If he is great, but 35% of a particular contest roster him, it doesn’t separate you. If he stinks it up though and 35% own him that puts you in a great spot because you differentiated your lineup. That’s really always the case, you could say don’t roster deGrom ever because he might have a bad start. The difference is track record. Javier is erratic, always has been. I don’t see many markers that would lead me to believe today is the day he will implode, trust me I looked. This ain’t last years Rays, not yet at least. That said I know Mahle, I have seen him pitch and I trust his stuff. Most importantly though he will be much lower owned. If you prefer the upside of Javier and want to go with him I do not blame you, only do it in cash games though as GPPs are all about getting the guys with low ownership.
There are a lot of other interesting options in todays slate at starting pitcher. Unfortunately, each one comes with something that scares me. Berrios hasn’t gotten out of the 5th inning since opening day and his strikeout numbers are down. He is facing Kansas City which knows how to work a pitcher deep in counts. He’s a fade for me. Jose Urena doesn’t strike out enough hitters. Ian Anderson is worth a look but he is facing the Blue Jays. His last 2 good starts came against the Cubs and a struggling Yankees team. Anderson is someone worth diving deeper on. I did and came away with Mahle and Javier ranked far above him. He walked 8 guys in 2 games before only walking 1 last start, but the Jays can work a pitcher, get a couple walks then smash a 3 run home run. For me, I’ll be fading Anderson.
Pitchers to stack against
There are 2 lineups I like today. 1 is going to be fairly chalky and the other should not. Whenever Corey Kluber is on the mound this year I am rostering the opposing team. Today that team is the Detroit Tigers. Kluber actually had a solid start last time out but that only strengthens our play today. A few casuals will pull up the game log and see he pitched well, then fade. Even some more skilled players will see Kluber’s last start and see it as him finally coming around. I watched that game vs Baltimore and I was not impressed. He managed to get out of a few jams and had some good defense behind him. I did not see a pitcher that was in the beginning of a nice run.
We all know the phrase good pitching beats good hitting. Well in this matchup we say subpar hitting beats bad pitching. The Tigers aren’t much this year offensively. They are super cheap though. We will be able to stack 4 Tigers and then come back with either anther stack or we can fill in individual studs with good matchups. Lets start off with Robbie Grossman. Mike Trout he is not but he has had a hit in 4 of his last 6 games while also drawing a bunch of walks and even stealing a few bases. We don’t need much from these Tigers hitters to reach value. Next up are Akil Baddoo and Renato Nunez. $2,900 and $2,800. Baddoo has cooled down but what better way to heat back up then going against an old soft throwing pitcher on his last legs. Nunez is a lesser known quantity this year but he has pop and 1 home run is all we need to exceed value.
Since we saved money rostering Tigers here is where we go ham using that leftover salary cap. Mike Foltynewicz is on the mound for the Rangers today facing the Boston Red Sox. Folty has given up 22 hits in his past 3 starts. For the most part he has pitched out of jams. Today though he faces one of the best offenses in baseball. The Sox are loaded this year. They alternate right and left, have pop and hitting prowess as well as being good situationally. Speaking of lefties I will have these Sox left handed hitters in every single lineup I put out today. Folty is giving up a .449 wOBA in the early season vs southpaws. This is a bit surprising as Mike has generally been just as good if not better throwing to lefties. This is a strange year though coming off of last year which was even stranger. I say ride the wave until Foltynewicz rights himself.
Honestly, that was a lot of words to say roster Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers (lefties) when in actuality, no matter what, I’ll be rostering all the good hitters from Boston today, as should you. One important thing for you to know is that you should not be rostering Bobby Dalbec or Hunter Renfroe in cash games. They are boom or bust type hitters and we want them in GPP lineups. Everyone else is in play with a premium being put on the aforementioned Verdugo and Devers, but also JD Martinez, Bogaerts and even Vazquez and Arroyo.
That about wraps it up folks. Fire up Mahle or Javier at the top, then fill it in with Tigers and Red Sox. I’m thinking next week I will start breaking down how my touts did, what I got right and/or wrong. Come on back next week, its means a lot. If you have any questions or concerns or random comments feel free to ask. I can answer questions about season long, betting and DFS. Good luck!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Looking pretty good today. Decent weather in baseball cities around the country. Maybe a small issue in Minnesota
Doing Lines in Vegas
The Yankees are the favorites today. Casuals love to bet the Yanks so that drives up the money. Well, we aren’t casuals are we?! Nope. As of last check the Tigers are +220 on Fanduel to win outright. I love that bet. With Urena on the mound going against Kluber this seems like a great spot. Urena isn’t a good fantasy pitcher per se but he has been a good real pitcher so far this year. Give me the Tigers to win with the plus money.
If you want to get frisky, I’d parley the Tigers straight with the Reds -1.5. The Reds have been in a prolonged slump but with Mahle on the mound facing the Cubbies I see this as an opportunity to get back on track. With double plus money in a 2 team parlay you can risk very little and still win enough to feel good about yourself.
