What’s up everybody, welcome back to another episode of Sunday DFS. Hope everyone had a good week, good 2 weeks as I was off last Sunday. I know there is a crossover between the different gambling fields so some of you reading have made good money off AMC, yes? Hopefully, you sold high on all of your TopShot moments because you knew the bubble would burst. Or maybe you really thought a Josh Hart assist highlight would always be worth $300, eck. But I digress. We are here today to win money, and win money we shall.
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Two weeks ago I talked to you about process over results. Hopefully, you took that to heart. We know the 76ers have and it’s working out well for them so far. For me, the idea is to come here to help plug in a few plays that go with your research, ie your process. Let’s get into those plays right now.
There are a few big-time obvious plays in the realm of starting pitcher today. I will break down the top some in contrast to my usual habit of skipping them and giving you less obvious plays. On Fanduel where you can only roster one pitcher the difference between two studs could be the difference between winning money and losing, so let’s take a look at them.
Corbin Burnes, $11,000: SP – Burnes is another one of those guys that stands out to me because I traded for him in my 30 team dynasty. If you have read my articles then you’ve seen me mention my squad a few times. Burnes stands out even more than others because it was my first big trade after I inherited my bottom 5 team. No one paid him much attention until he started dominating. Then it’s hey, I’ll give you this middling SP and a prospect you’ve never heard of for Burnes. Yeah… Okay, guy.
My point here is that Corbin Burnes is the real deal. He’s a top-flight pitcher and I do not see much regression. From start to start is a different matter obviously. Unless your name is Jacob deGrom on any given matchup a pitcher can have a bad day. In this case, Milwaukee is playing against Arizona and they have been playing horribly. Some people thought the little tussle they had with the Mets last series would have given them a jolt, but that was wishful thinking at best.
Specifically looking at this matchup the D’Backs strike out the 11th most in baseball. Vs righties though that moves up to the 2nd most. So pencil Burnes in double-digit strikeouts. If you can bet in your state Id see if they have a prop on Burnes K’s. With decent odds Id go as high as 10.5 Ks.
Trevor Bauer, $10,500: SP – I am fading Bauer in all formats. I don’t like his recent performances combined with the crackdown on substances. Bauer may be subject #1 when it comes to these illegal substances helping his performance. He is going up against the Braves who have been hitting quite well over the past month. They have only scored less than 5 runs 3 times since the middle of May. All these factors and more have me straight up fading Bauer. I should try to get famous by tweeting him and letting him know then engaging in a Twitter beef. Hmm, nah
For this last one, I am going to give you a GPP flyer. Before I do I want to say that I also like Luis Garcia, $9,100: SP. He’s pitched great and has good stuff. His price is getting up there but he could be a good pivot off of Burnes and Bauer. Go up against Toronto is no small order so maybe you play it safe with Burnes. If you are running more than say 10-15 lineups I would definitely have Garcia in 15% or so to diversify your lineups. You don’t want to miss out if he goes off.
That leads me to my GPP flyer. Now, this is a real flyer. If you don’t mind variance then Vince Velasquez, $7,100: SP is basically the definition of a GPP flyer. Kind of like how Oliver Perez used to be. He was capable of dominating but those few starts were mixed in with utter dumpster fires. Velasquez is facing Washington today and their offense is inconsistent. When you have Juan Soto and Trey Turner you always have a shot to score runs. They also don’t strike out much, being top 3 in the league in the fewest K’s. That’s why this is called a deep GPP flyer.
Vince has great stuff. He has a 28% K rate…. and well not much else. One other thing, a nasty curveball. If he gets his fastball over for strikes and can work his curveball in hitters counts this could be a bad day for the Nats. I’ve seen games where Vince is near unhittable. He’s one of those pitchers that I saw a while ago and it just stuck. I root for him and I think he has the parts to be a #3 type starter. He just has to put it together. I am going to bet a few dollars via fantasy that he will put it together today. How risk, high reward.
Hitters – Stacks
Stacks to target. Whenever I look and see Michael Wacha pitching my eyes light up. I know that I will be stacking against whatever team he is pitching for, this year it is the Rays. The Rays can usually work magic with veteran pitchers but so far it hasn’t worked on Wacha. He hasn’t been good and unlike someone like Velasquez, he doesn’t have great stuff with potential for a shutdown game. So let’s roster some Rangers. Wacha being a righty makes this an even juicier matchup for Texas. Their best hitters are lefties and it’s good for us because they are lefties with pop.
Joey Gallo, $3,100: OF Gallo has a new approach this year, and he’s cut down some on his Ks. He has also found his power and can easily knock 1 or 2 out of the park today.
Nate Lowe, $2,900: 1B Lowe has been struggling but that is why he is so cheap. I love him in this matchup so get him your lineups, even in ones where you don’t stack the Rangers.
Willie Calhoun, $2,600: OF Willie is Adrian Beltre reincarnated, just in the OF. I’ve been on Calhoun since he came up, and I won’t be backing off him now, especially in this matchup.
Nick Solak, $2,400 – Adolis Garcia, $3,800 – Isiah Kiner-Falefa, $2,500 are all also in play. Garcia isn’t featured because of his price but he is raking this year and the other 2 are super cheap even though it might not be a great spot. Mix and match if you are running multiple lineups. If not go with the guys I featured. Mix in Garcia if you think he’s better than anyone else mentioned today.
I also like a few right-handed Cardinals going up against Wade Miley and the Reds.
Nolan Arendo, $3,400 – Tommy Edman, $3,000 and Paul Goldschmidt, $3,100 are all good plays. Mix then in with whoever else you like on today’s slate and Good Luck!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Even though some of the forecasts look yucky it doesn’t appear as though we will have any cancelations and can probably avoid delays as well. Keep your eyes on Atlanta, St Louis, and Colorado.
Doing Lines in Vegas
This is one part of my articles where if you have taken my advice each week you are up money, depending on what you bet but all things being equal. This week I think they may continue. I love the 2 dogs today, the Braves +120 and the Mets +115. Stroman has been struggling but that dew-rag comment pissed him off and he’s going to come out strong. You also saw what I think about Bauer today. So parlay them or bet them straight but these are my picks and I like them a lot.