We have eight games to consider today when playing the FanDuel Main Slate. When looking over the options it seems we can find all kinds of creative ways to avoid paying up and starting Justin Verlander, SP: $11,900. Darvish is pitching with the wind blowing in to a fairly beat up Brewers team. Corbin is facing the terrible Marlins lineup. Morton is pitching at home. But there are times when overthinking the best option is detrimental, and this is likely one of those times. We just need to not over think it, and do the obvious. Start Justin Verlander.
Verlander faces a strikeout-prone Blue Jays team. That point potential is too much to resist. What we do need to be concerned with is the park factor and Verlander’s season long struggle with the long ball. If things click today, he’ll put up 60. If not, rostering him could look like a very bad idea because of just one or two mistake pitches. It is risky on that level, but worth the risk because of his upside.
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Danny Duffy, SP: $7,400. Duffy is in a great spot today coming back from his hamstring injury. The main concern is whether he will be allowed a full workload, or if the five innings in his most recent rehab start are indicative of his expected limit today. If we hear anything about a pitchcount or innings limit we want to reevaluate, but as of now Duffy is looking like our best value option of the slate for SP. He faces an Orioles team that strikes out at a well above average rate and walks at a well below average rate, all with a low team ISO. It’s a great combination for opposing pitching. We just hope Duffy gets to take full advantage.
Here is a stack of stacks for you:
Tampa Bay Rays – Stacking the Rays today is mostly a response to their value, as we are preferring some expensive SP options, not the raw expected output of their lineup. They are in the lower half of expected run totals, and are facing a very decent pitcher in Adam Plutko. Plutko has faced the Rays once this year and given up seven runs, but that was way back in early April, so it should not count for much of our analysis. However, it does count for something, and if the Rays can jump on him again they can provide us with the value we need to take down a GPP. Order of preference:
Austin Meadows, OF: $3,500
Tommy Pham, OF: $3,400
Kevin Kiermaier, OF: $2,500
Eric Sogard, 2B: $2,600
Ji-Man Choi, C/1B: $2,600
Avisail Garcia, OF: $2,900
Willy Adames, SS: $2,300
Joey Wendle, 3B: $2,100
Travis d’Arnaud, C/1B: $2,900
Milwaukee Brewers – Picking the Brewers today vs. Darvish, wind blowing in, on the cooler side for early September, is a contrarian play. This is not a stack to trot out in a large chunk of your lineups, but on days like today it makes sense to own some. Darvish is looking like a world beater, but he can have control issues. The weather conditions look favorable for pitching, but not that favorable. The Brewers have the offensive potential to put up numbers with the best of them. Go against the grain here, just not too much:
Trent Grisham, OF: $2,600
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,600
Travis Shaw, 3B: $2,200
Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,100
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $2,800
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,200
Ryan Braun, OF: $2,900
Hernan Perez, 3B: $2,100
Houston Astros – Houston has the highest implied run total of the slate, at just under six runs. While they are an expensive stack, there are still some value pieces here depending on who they start today vs. Wilmer Font and Zach Godley, and Godley’s ungodly 6.17 ERA. Stack the Astros:
Alex Bregman, SS: $4,100
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $4,100
George Springer, OF: $4,200
Michael Brantley, OF: $4,000
Josh Reddick, OF: $2,600
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,300
Aledmys Diaz, 2B: $2,800
Yuli Gurriel, C/1B: $3,700
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No great risk of PPD today. Detroit is the one potential area of concern with rain moving through this morning, but there should be enough of a gap to get in a full game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There is no over/under in Chicago right now, but the wind blowing in coupled with occassional lingering showers could make this more of a pitchers’ game than early September typically provides. Given there is no option of a choice there, let’s instead go back, once again, to St. Louis. Here we have an over/under of 8.5 with Mahle and Mikolas on the mound for the early game. Let’s take the over.
