Congratulations, you made it to the weekend. This time next week, the NFL will have kicked off and the MLB will be an afterthought to all but the most hardcore of MLB DFS degenerates. So, let’s enjoy the final weekend of pools filled with fish before they all start throwing their money at NFL contests. We’re going to kick this weekend off with some Tyler Mahle ($9,600). Mahle gets to take on the terrible Tigers, they of the bottom ten team OPS and top five in team strikeouts. Mahle, meanwhile, has been incredibly useful rocking a 10.6 K/9 and a 3.64 ERA. The Reds shouldn’t have any trouble knocking Matthew Boyd around to get Mahle a win either. I’ll be locking Mahle into a good portion of lineups tonight and hoping to make some cash before contests start shrinking.
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Reynaldo Lopez, SP: $8,100 – Mahle is the clear choice for cash games, so we’re going to get wild with these other picks. We’re going for broke. Yes, I shat all over Reynaldo two weeks ago and all he did was throw five scoreless. This one will probably blow up in my face, but I think Reynaldo can handle KC. With these cheap options, we can really load up on those primo Coors bats. We just need Reynaldo to not implode.
Humberto Castellanos, SP: $5,500 – Now we’re really getting wild. Castellanos is a complete unknown, you could get 30 points, you could get bupkis. His last two outings of 18 and 22 FanDuel points show that what could be possible and at $5,500, he’s almost a free space at pitcher. We’re really rolling the dice here, but the Mariners are awful, a bottom-five in team OPS and a top-five in team strikeouts. Castellanos could have a surprisingly fruitful outing on the cheap, hitting 30 points would be huge while allowing us to load up on hitters.
Travis d’Arnaud, C/1B: $3,400 – The old, catcher in the first-base slot trick strikes again! I’m a big fan of this when there’s a game at Coors. Everyone will have Freddie here, or be fading this game, you can zig that zag and roll with d’Arnaud, who is no slouch.
Jose Abreu, C/1B: $4,100 – I’m too chicken to fade Coors, and for $100 more you can grab Freddie, but if you want to try fading, I’d look to Abreu as my top option.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $4,000 – It sure didn’t take Ozzie long to recover from that foul ball to the knee and he came back with a bang last night!
Tommy Edman, 2B/OF: $3,200 – Edman has been scorching the past two weeks, with over 18 points in six of his last eight games. The price hasn’t adjusted for his current heater, so ride the wave.
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,800 – Steady, reliable, boring, Turner is the perfect safe play, a cash game staple if you will.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,300 – Seager on the other hand, provides some potential upside. Let’s say you aren’t a crazy person and don’t play Humberto Castellanos, I won’t blame you. Seager could blow up here, he’s one of the few Mariners that can and I could see taking a shot on him or his teammate, Abraham Toro ($2,800) who you can also fit at 2B.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $3,600 – I know Dansby doesn’t have massive power, but only being priced $200 above d’Arnaud seems like a crime. I would take advantage of this pricing mismatch and hope most people go with Story instead.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS: $3,500 – You could even get a little slicker and drop down to Mondesi who popped off the IL to deliver a slam and legs. Scoring points in multiple ways is something we love to see.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $3,600 – I love LouBob and Eloy here, but Eloy is priced much better. Daniel Lynch shouldn’t provide much resistance to these studs.
Eddie Rosario, OF: $3,400 – I guess Rosario makes more sense leading off than Joc, but I still don’t really know what teams are doing these days. If Rosario is at the top of the Braves lineup tonight though, it’ll be hard to pass that up.
Raimel Tapia, OF: $2,800 – Speaking of the top of the lineup, where did Connor Joe go? Well, he pulled a hammy, which means Tapia should find himself back atop the lineup, the place he hit from most before hitting the IL.
Jo Adell, OF: $2,500 – I was really hoping Adell would be lighting it up by now, but the fireworks haven’t come just yet. I’m still willing to take a cheap shot on him here against Kolby Allard and his 5+ ERA.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Of course, the only weather concerns are in the game with the best pitcher on the slate. As of this writing (Friday night), the weather looks like it will hold off until after the game in Cincy, but these things tend to move up as we get closer and we’ll have to watch this closely as we approach lock. If it gets washed, I guess I’ll pivot to Framber, but I’m not happy about it.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Mahle and the Reds are the big favorites tonight (-200), no surprise. We should have plenty of offense, we don’t have a single game total under 8 runs and [email protected] is the only game at 8 runs. Coors is our highest total, but only 10.5. The Braves are surprisingly only -110 favorites in this one. I know Marquez is good, but I really like the Braves to win this one.
Don’t start Mahle at home. Ever.
lesson laerned….maybe