Welcome back friends. You are either lost or you loved my 1st installment of “DFS Sunday Musings” (I just made that name up). There is no in between. If you are lost take a seat anyway and get ready for some top of the line tout work. Lets win some money, shall we?
If we were playing baseball karma fantasy, Marcus Stroman would be justified as the highest priced play. He is the top pitcher on the main slate today on FanDuel at $9,400. He is $900 more then the next pitcher. Since this is baseball and not feel good DFS I am automatically fading him, as the title suggests. Don’t get me wrong Stroman helps the Mets win, but he will not help us win money today. He lacks strikeout potential. The first thing I learned about MLB DFS is to pay up for K’s. That has held true since I heard it and might be the truest thing in any DFS. At 3 points a K (only 6 for a win and 3 per inning pitched) nothing helps you rack up points quickly more then a pitcher missing bats. Okay so don’t play Stro you say, fine, who should we play? I was about to get to that…
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As with QB in NFL DFS, if I can, I like to pay down for pitcher, so I can pay up for bats. A solid starting pitching performance gets you between 21 and 27 points on average. A solo home run gives you 18.7 points, with at least 2 more opportunities for more. I am not saying top shelf starting pitching isn’t important, its wildly important. Just not on a day like today with Stroman and Jordan Montgomery as our 2 “top” pitchers. I still haven’t told you who to play have I? I do that, and I am working on it. Okay here it is. I am firing up in most of my lineups Logan Allen. Allen is the least expensive SP on the main slate at $5,900. That is almost how expensive Mike Trout gets when he’s on a massive heater. In other words it is dirt cheap for a SP. Will Allen give you 7 shutout innings with 10 Ks? No, he probably wont. But if he gives us 5-6 innings with at least 1K/9IP, and his team scores runs we can hit value at SP and then go ham rostering the best position players with the best matchups.
There is no bevy of advanced stats that say Allen is the play. He has good stuff, he’s a bulldog on the mound, he’s cheap and he is facing the Tigers. It doesn’t always have to be super complex. Now to the Bats…
Since we rostered Allen we have a lot of flexibility with our bats. We can almost do anything. It wont be hard for you to click on matchup on FD and see X great right handed hitter is facing a weak throwing lefty and roster him. For that reason I am going to give you a sneaky GPP stack today that I think will perform and should be under owned.
Brent Honeywell Jr., who was once a top prospect, has dealt with a ton of injuries over the past 4 years. Today he is back and pitching as the opener vs the Yankees. Last night 6 pitchers combined to shut out the Yanks. I can tell you, as a Mets fan, that unlike the Mets, the Yanks aren’t going to just lay down and be shutout or shutdown again. I think they will take advantage of Honeywell early and then get at bats against Michael Wacha. Wacha was teed up to a 75% hard hit rate last start. His best FIP is 5.25 and has given up at least 10.2 HRs per 9 innings since 2019. The Yankees are in a great spot to take advantage of sub standard Ray’s pitching. Lets do a straight 1-4 starting with,
DJ LeMahieu, 2B: $3,500 – DJ is doing his normal thing to start the year and is in a great spot to table set for the bigger Yankee bats.
Aaron Judge, OF: $4,000 – Judge, after struggling early and worrying all of Yankee social media, is now hitting almost .350 with 2 homers. I think everyday and every AB Judge is primed to reestablish himself as the top 5 hitter he was when he first came up. Why not today against a guy throwing for the first time in years.
Aaron Hicks, OF: $2,900 – Hicks who is a starting OF on my 30 team dynasty finally broke out with a home run the other day. He always gets on base via the walk so look for him to do so against an adrenalin fueled pitcher who may just overthrow. Hicks may also hit one out for us. I hope so…I’m only up 1 category in my H2H dynasty matchup and need runs to pull ahead.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,700 – Stanton is 1 of those players that I don’t normally like in real life, but in DFS GPPs he is exactly who we like. He has just a good a chance to hit 1 or 2 homers then anyone else in baseball. He is hitting right above the Mendoza line early in the year but he has 7 RBI, look for him to build on that.
Gary Sanchez, C/1B: $3,300, Gleyber Torres, SS/2B: $2,800 and Clint Frazier, OF: $2,700 are all viable today as well. If you create a lot of lineups I would sprinkle them in to a few. More so Sanchez and less Frazier who has struggled so far, especially with the strikeout.
BARGIN BIN
Here are some cheaper options in case you either do not go with Allen or if you skip Hicks and go for someone like Trout (which is in play, these are suggestions to help shape roster construction. Always go with the guys you think have the best matchup with the best price.).
Luis Robert, OF: $3,200 – Robert has hit lefties well in his young career knocking a home run once every 20 ABs. Albeit in only 60 ABs. Robert can also sneak you a stolen base and is at the top of a potent offense.
Tommy Edman, 2B/OF: $3,000 – The Cardinals are my 2nd favorite stack of the day. Going up against lefty Brett Anderson, who wouldn’t be an elite pitcher in the Bulgarian national league. He struggled in his first start and I look for that to continue today. Edman has stated slow but he is good vs lefties and leading off. He should get at least 4 chances to score us fantasy points.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B: $2,500 – I LOVE Jesus today. Well I love Jesus everyday but I love Jesus Aguilar today! (*did’nt you say no more religious jokes?) At 2.5 K Aguilar is a plug and play type on FD today. Facing Stroman who wont blow anyone away plays in Aguilars hand. He has trouble catching up to the high fastball but he can sit dead red vs Stro and lay off his breaking stuff. All it takes is one swing from that massive and powerful frame for Jesus to far outpace his value.
That should get you started in building those winning lineups today. Let me know in the comments what you think! Just know, I am very sensitive and do not react well to criticism. Just kidding, tell me how bad I suck, I can take it.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are a bunch of weather situations to watch today. The Blue Jays and Mets will probably be postponed if not canceled outright. You will see, I did not suggest taking any of those players. Gain a slight edge by being up on the weather every day before rostering players, especially pitchers. The White Sox are also in danger of a stoppage playing the Royals today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
1-0 on the early season
As you may or may not have seen I am 1 and 0 on the early season. I told you the Reds would crush Carlos Martinez last Sunday and I was right. Hopefully you took that bet. Today I will give you 2 and if you are feeling lucky I would put them into a parley. As I told you above, I think the Yankees are primed for a big day. Apparently Vegas agrees because he Yanks are favored on the road in the midst of a slump. On FanDuel Sportsbook they are giving the normal 1.5 runs with a 9.5 over/under. I feel good that they will score runs and win. I can’t say how confident I am that the Rays will score. Lets just take the Yankees straight.
Bet number 2 is the Cardinals facing Brett Anderson. Again, I am putting my money where my mouth is. Giving 1.5 runs with a 8.5 over/under I’d say feel good about going with the Cardinals to cover the spread and the game to hit the over. With Ponce De Leon pitching for St. Louis this shouldn’t be a pitchers duel.
So parlay the Yanks and Cards to cover and buy me a beer if we are ever in the same city. If you lose I don’t know you and don’t drink beer.
