Hello fellow DFS degens and welcome to my weekly baseball DFS space. Here we will talk about daily fantasy strategy, players to target, Matchups, my top picks on the FanDuel sportsbook (starting next week) and baseball in general. Though not so much the latter. They tell me only the really good writers get to do straight baseball articles. ? For now though I will guide my fellow gamblers (skill based based of course) into the world of +EV. For any newbs that may be gracing these pages +EV simply means plus expected value. Basically you want all of your plays whether they be bets, draft picks in season long fantasy or what contests/players you should play in DFS to bring you the most bang for your buck. That’s put very simply but you just get the gist. Joining a $1000 head to head football contest hosted by Jonathan Bales would be an example of -EV.
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That brings me to the point of todays article, when and how to target players at Coors field. Today being Easter Sunday and a day of rest for many, I am going to spend less time going over particular players and their corresponding matchups. This article will cover some players but more so overall strategy, while I get my feet wet here at Razzball.
Its no secret that more runs are scored at Coors then anywhere else. This FantasyPros article shows how much more fantasy goodness you can expect compared to other ballparks. Since the extra production is baked into the price its not always +EV to load up on Rockies and their opponents, in this case the Dodgers. Lets dig in.
The Dodgers will be facing lefty Austin Gomber. Gomber will be a full time starter for the Rockies this year after having a good year as part time starter and reliever last year in St. Louis. Looking at his numbers from last year you might think that LA would be a fade. Though we have to to keep in mind that Gomber only went 4 max innings in the spring and only had 4 starts last year. Chances are LA batters will have 2 at bats against the Rockies bullpen, which is horrible. Even with that said, Gomber’s 1.89 ERA is a bit misleading. He had a 3.54 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and a 4.87 xFIP which takes ballpark and other factors into account. Feel free to load up on Dodgers, all studs being matchup neutral. Gomber had similar numbers against lefties and righties so I would look to roster the usual suspects. Mookie Betts who is $4,800, Cody Bellinger is $4,600 and Corey Seager at $4,500. In order to get at least 2 of these guys in your lineup I will give you some value down below.
The Dodgers staff is loaded this year and today is no different. Leftie prospect Júlio Urias will get the ball. I have rostered CJ Cron in every DFS lineup I played this weekend and today will be no different. In the off-season Derek Carty’s BatX projected Cron to hit 31 HRs and a .363 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and his price has not caught up to his expected production for this season. C.J. Cron is $3,800, which is 1k less then Bellinger and might be a good GPP pivot. I also like Ryan McMahon in cash games, he comes in at $3,200. Ryan hit a homer yesterday and has good bat discipline. Even if he gets you a walk and a run scored that’s pretty close to value.
Lets look at some value at pitcher.
Michael Pineda, SP: $7,300 FD Pineda has dealt with a ton of injuries over the years but he had a pretty healthy and productive season last year. With about 1K/IP, facing a Brewers team that was second in the league in Ks per game as a team last year. They whiffed almost 10 times a game in 2020. Facing Pineda’s Twins is Adrian Houser, not who was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA in 2020. There is a good chance that beside strikeout upside Pineda may also get the win. Which that extra 6 points, especially on FD with only 1 pitcher can really make the difference between a cash or goose egg.
Chris Paddack, SP: $7,800 – I absolutely love Chris Paddack to have a huge bounce back this year. Besides DFS player/writer I am also a sports card collector. After Paddack’s struggles the past 2 years he has come down in value in DFS and the card world. I will have shares of Paddack tomorrow in DFS just as I’ve been buying up his rookie cards. If you saw the quotes in the off-season Chris basically discovered a thing called analytics for the first time last year. With all the down time combined with him struggling for probably the first time in his life, he took to understanding things like spin rate. That, combined with his natural cannon of an arm, has me seeing dollar signs. Facing the D-backs, who are not breaking any offensive records this year at home which is a solid pitchers park I’d say you can safely fire up Paddack. Buy some of his rookie autos too and thank me in 5 months.
I will close out my first article here at Razzball with some bargain bin value plays to help you, along with the pitchers I mentioned, to fit in those LA Dodger star hitters. Thank you if you made it to the the end. Next week I plan on digging into more +EV plays and matchups, but with the holiday tomorrow I thought it be best to do a more generalized article. So cheers to you, and happy Easter. Or happy 1st MLB Sunday if you don’t celebrate.
Nate Lowe, 1B: $2,800 – Lowe with 6 RBI already this season! Look for that to continue against the righty prospect Singer.
Marcus Semien, SS: $2,700 – He had a HR and 2 steals yesterday, 2.7k is too cheap for the veteran who is again in a contract year.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,000 – A leftie slugger facing Carlos Martinez in his opening start in a tiny ballpark.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $3,000 – Cutch going against the rookie Anderson, look for the crafty vet to find an advantage.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $2,800 – (GPP only) Renfroe can poke one out at anytime, he is worth rostering in a few lineups against Zimmerman today. Good Luck!
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
It looks to be a beautiful day across baseball today. What else should you expect from the Lords birthday? Wait, that’s Christmas. What’s today again? *note to self, limit the religious jokes going forward…
Doing Lines in Vegas
With Carlos Martinez on the mound today for the Cardinals, I fully expect the Reds to go off again offensively. The Reds at -110 should be a pretty safe play.
