FAAB Week 7: Highway To The Shadow Zone

All of the buzz in the baseball blogosphere this week has been over the strike zone adjustments that were revealed in this report from The Athletic in which the league is dealing with the fallout of how umpires are being graded on zone calls. And hello to the future Havard Business Review piece on the breakdown of the change management communication (yeah, I hate myself too for busting out a sentence like that) between MLB and the teams as the league says it shared all of this info while front offices and players have been flummoxed.

The report kicked off fantastic analysis from Davy Andrews at FanGraphs (who spread it across two pieces) and Patrick Dubuque at Baseball Prospectus (link to his article that might be sub only?). If you don’t have the time to sort through all of those articles, the TLDR is that the “shadow zone” on the outer edges has shrunk to favor those pitches being called balls. Umps are afraid of the consequences of calling a strike on a pitch that is a ball in the system, so they’ve erred towards pronouncing more of them balls. The biggest impact by far has been at the top of the zone (the chart is from the ump’s view behind the plate), evident, clear as day, in this chart from Patrick’s piece:

One of the hallmarks of being a better fantasy player is reacting quickly to leaguewide trends to find an edge. Every time there’s a new bouncy ball or rule surrounding pickoff moves, small ripples that reverberate throughout our game are made. Usually around these parts, I’ve been calling it out in stadium changes and weather patterns that have been swaying approaches. Hell, it’s impossible to capture them all, that’s why I rely on the expertise of our Streamonator and Hittertron tools, both of which pick up these changes quicker than most. But there is an obvious impact on pitchers with this shift of the strike zone – high-spin, high-rise fastball guys that pound the top of the zone have been in a world of pain.

Three players come to mind immediately, as this zone shift has clearly impacted their performance in 2025 so far, which can be seen in their walk rates pretty easily:

• Gavin Williams – 13.0% BB-rate, 5.01 FIP in 2025 compared to 10.2% and 3.86 for his career previously (the heatmap on his fastball)
• Bryce Miller – 12.8% BB-rate, 4.15 ERA in 2025 compared to 5.7% and 3.52 for his career previously (the heatmap on his fastball)
• Dylan Cease – 9.6% BB-rate, 4.91 ERA in 2025 compared to 8.5% and 3.47 in 2024, his first year with San Diego (the heatmap on his fastball)

You have to fade the above three guys (RIP to my hot, hot Bryce Miller for the Cy Young Award takes) because the approach they used for success previously isn’t going to work as well. They’ll have to change on the fly during the year, including suffering the consequences of bringing down those fastballs that played well at the top of the zone and being closer to the heart of it.

What can you do with this info for other pitchers? Certainly check those heatmaps on future pitching targets to see how much the player is relying on upper-zone fastballs. The more reliant they are on that pitch, the less sharp their rest-of-season projections are likely to be.

Alright, back to my wheelhouse around here for those pickups…

The stats and roster rates below are updated as of noon central time on 5/9.

As always, if you want advice on specific roster decisions you might have, feel free to leave a comment. You can also find me on BlueSky (@mcouill7.bsky.social).

CATCHERS

10/12 Team Adds

Jonah Heim (TEX, 29% CBS Rostership) – Heim has been a bright spot in a Rangers offense that struggled so mightily, it got the offensive coordinator canned. The Texas backstop is slashing .333/.396/.417 (138+ wRC) over his last 13 games. The DH opportunities are drying up a bit as Joc Pederson finally gets warm, but Heim remains the best widely available catching option. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Ryan Jeffers (MIN, 46% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Gabriel Moreno (ARI, 40% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Joey Bart (PIT, 34% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Alejandro Kirk (TOR, 23% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Dillon Dingler (DET, 21% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Edgar Quero (CHW, 18% CBS Rostership) – Another repeat suggestion here – those catcher situations have really crystallized in leagues out there, huh? Or are we starting to enter the malaise when some that drafted in March realize that fantasy baseball is a six-month commitment? Quero looks legit, up to a .293/.397/.345 slash line over 68 plate appearances. He has yet to crack a barrel or a homer, but if you can secure a .280 batting average from a starting catcher, you can find the power elsewhere. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Connor Wong (BOS, 17% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Drake Baldwin (ATL, 15% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

10/12 Team Adds

Gabriel Arias (2B/3B/SS, CLE, 39% CBS Rostership) – In another fantastic piece at Baseball Prospectus this week, Matthew Trueblood outlined the changes Cleveland has made across the board for its team plate approach (sub only, but honestly, a BP sub is well worth the price). TLDR: The Guardians are encouraging hitters to get out ahead on pitches a la Justin Turner. Arias has been one of the main beneficiaries, and yes, the approach of getting out front will lead to more whiffs. But given his positional eligibilities along with a summer lined up to hit against AL Central opponents, he’s a great fantasy piece that might run into 20+ homers. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B, SDP, 49% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Luisangel Acuna (2B/SS, NYM, 36% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Connor Norby (3B, MIA, 37% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA, 37% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA, 35% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Jose Caballero (2B/3B/SS/OF, TBR, 34% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN, 34% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Colt Keith (1B/2B, DET, 31% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Ty France (1B, MIN, 30% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Caleb Durbin (2B/3B, MIL, 30% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT, 22% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Brooks Lee (2B/3B/SS, MIN, 21% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Carlos Santana (1B, CLE, 16% CBS Rostership) – Whatever Black Magic Woman has shown this 39-year-old the fountain of youth, it’s working. He’s playing every day at the cold corner in Cleveland (with a few DH starts to bless us all with Kyle Manzardo 1B eligibility) and is on fire over his last 10 games with a .324/.439/.529 (181 wRC+) slash. The Hittertron loves him next week thanks to a soft seven-game schedule home against Milwaukee and at Cincy, making him rosterable as a 12-team streamer too. (3-5% FAAB in 15-teamers, 1-3% FAAB in 12-teamers)

QUICK HITS: Daniel Schneemann (2B/SS/OF, CLE, 16% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Trey Sweeney (SS, DET, 11% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Luis Urias (2B/3B, ATH, 10% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Lenyn Sosa (1B/2B/3B, CHW, 4% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Eric Wagaman (1B/3B/OF, MIA, 16% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Chase Meidroth (2B/SS, CHW, 16% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Zach Dezenzo (1B/OF, HOU, 11% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, PIT, 11% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Brooks Baldwin (2B/SS/OF, CHW, 9% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jon Berti (2B/3B, CHC, 6% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Santiago Espinal (2B/3B/OF, CIN, 5% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Josh Rojas (3B, CHW, 1% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Otto Kemp (3B, PHI, 4% CBS Rostership) – Those footsteps are getting louder and louder behind you, Alec Bohm (62 wRC+, -2 OAA, -0.2 fWAR). Kemp is up to a .331/.423/.662 (184 wRC+) slash with 10 homers and five steals at Triple-A now. (3-5% FAAB)

Tim Elko (1B, CHW, 2% CBS Rostership) – Another repeat from last week as Andrew Vaughn continues to be a dog (derogatory) with a 42 wRC+, -2 OAA, and -1.0 fWAR. Elko is just about a mirror-image of Kemp, sans the steals, with a .348/.431/.670 (182 wRC+) slash with 10 taters. (3-5% FAAB)

OUTFIELDERS

10/12 Team Adds

Pavin Smith (ARI, 46% CBS Rostership) – A tough stretch that saw the D-backs face a fair number of southpaws along with the typical ups-and-downs of baseball have brought our man Pavin back to this realm. His Savant page is not quite as glowing as previous but still looks solid. The kicker here is that Smith gets a three-game series next weekend at home against the Rockies, who should throw three right-hander starters. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Jorge Soler (LAA, 46% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), JJ Bleday (ATH, 45% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Max Kepler (PHI, 30% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Trevor Larnach (MIN, 27% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Daulton Varsho (TOR, 27% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jake Meyers (HOU, 22% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Joc Pederson (UT, TEX, 15% CBS Rostership) – I hinted above that Joc has started looking better of late, producing a .259/.355/.444 (128 wRC+) slash line over his last 10 games. It has come with a 12.9% BB-rate, making him a solid play in OBP leagues. This is a great week for him to really bury those early-season demons with a full seven game slate that includes three against Colorado and four against Houston with just one southpaw (Kyle Freeland, who is so poor, Bruce Bochy might let Pederson start) on the schedule. (3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Dane Myers (MIA, 19% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Harrison Bader (MIN, 13% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Brandon Marsh (PHI, 13% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jesus Sanchez (MIA, 12% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Alek Thomas (ARI, 10% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Miguel Andujar (3B/OF, ATH, 9% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jacob Young (WSN, 8% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Drew Waters (KCR, 4% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Isaac Collins (MIL, 1% CBS Rostership) – Thanks to Garrett Mitchell’s recent oblique injury and Sal Frelick’s knee issue, Collins has been getting full run in Milwaukee. He’s a classic under-tooled fourth outfielder/Quad-A guy that pops when they get a bit of playing time. Last year, Collins put up a .273/.386/.475 line with 14 slams and 24 legs at Triple-A as a 26-year-old. He’s probably something like a .230-.240 bat with 8-12 homers and 15-20 steals in a full season. Useful if hard up for an OF. (3-5% FAAB)

Mike Tauchman (CHW, 1% CBS Rostership) – Tauchman is out on a rehab assignment this weekend. After completing it, he should walk right into a full-time, or at least strong-side, role at the top of the Sox lineup. For Only leagues, we need to invent PTAGNOF (Playing Time Ain’t Got No Face) around these parts. (5% FAAB)

STARTING PITCHERS

10/12 Team Adds

Hayden Wesneski (HOU, 48% CBS Rostership) Due to a 5.14 ERA and 5.1 K/9 over his last three starts, Wesneski has started to slip to some waiver wires, especially given his 4.79 FIP on the season. He’s also a tweak away from more success, as he’s throwing his best pitch (a 117 Stuff+ slider) just 24.6% of the time compared to 37.2% with the Cubs because the ‘Stros have mixed in a mediocre 95 Stuff+ cutter 9.3 % of the time. At some point, it almost seems too easy of a fix or maybe Houston is trying to play the long game and will flip the switch back soon. Wesneski also has a juicy two-start week set up with vs. KCR and at TEX. Well, maybe Wesneski was throwing fewer sliders cause his elbow was barking. Spend this FAAB budget on Ryan Gusto instead. (5% FAAB)

Colin Rea (CHC, 44% CBS Rostership) – Rea has a two-start week with home matchups against the Marlins and White Sox. ‘Nuff said. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Gunnar Hoglund (ATH, 45% CBS Rostership, 3-5% FAAB), Cade Horton (CHC, 39% CBS Rostership, 3-5% FAAB), Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL, 49% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Tobias Myers (MIL, 36% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Nick Martinez (CIN, 37% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Ben Brown (CHC, 32% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Ryan Weathers (MIA, 32% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN, 13% CBS Rostership) – Woods Richardson has been relatively sharp of late, pitching to a 3.38 ERA over 24 innings with 20 Ks and seven walks across five outings (four starts). The FIP was brutal (5.27) because his groundball-light approach (26.3% GB-rate on the season) leaves him vulnerable to a homer. But the stars align for him this week with a two road starts at Baltimore and Milwaukee, neither offense I’ve afraid of, making Woods Richardson a solid choice if chasing wins and Ks volume and can risk the ratios a smidge. Because, yikes, the options out there in deeper leagues have dried up. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Sean Burke (CHW, 20% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Mike Soroka (WSN, 19% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Ben Lively (CLE, 17% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Chad Patrick (MIL, 12% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)

Only Team Adds

Nathan Wiles (ATL, 0% CBS Rostership) – Dart throws don’t get much deeper than this, but Wiles has been a revelation for the Braves this season after acquiring him from the Rays in March. The 26-year-old has been their best arm at Triple-A, outpitching Hurston Waldrep, with a 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 26.8% K-BB over 25 innings. With Grant Holmes unraveling further every start and Atlanta’s playoff hopes looking back up, don’t be surprised to see Wiles get his shot in the rotation soon. (1% FAAB)

Jake Bloss (TOR, 3% CBS Rostership) – Before floundering in his latest outing at Iowa, Bloss had been on a roll, firing nine innings of no-earned-run ball with 12 Ks and a walk. The pitching rotation situation has gotten so dire in Toronto that they’ve resorted to adding Jose Urena, which is the last option before going with a position-player pitcher every fifth day. The Blue Jays have to be seeing Bloss and his talent marinating across the border in Buffalo and telling him to make the last few tweaks because he’s coming back to the big leagues soon. (3% FAAB)

RELIEVERS

10/12 Team Adds

David Bednar (PIT, 42% CBS Rostership) – As evidenced by his loss last Saturday that included a now-patented Bednar wild pitch, he’s not fully back to his old All-Star self. Combined with the Pirates starting to show signs they are like White Sox and Rockies-level bad, proceed with trepidation with Bednar if he’s your only available choice. (3-5% FAAB)

Porter Hodge (CHC, 30% CBS Rostership) – If Ryan Pressly’s historic nine-run (eight earned), no-out appearance this week didn’t convince you the end is nigh for him, I don’t know what will. Hodge is the logical next man up in the Cubs’ closer chair as he occupied it plenty in 2024. (7-9% FAAB)

Shelby Miller (ARI, 29% CBS Rostership) – Despite allowing his first two runs in a blown save this week, Miller is still sporting a great pitch mix and sits in the driver’s seat for now. Justin Martinez is already on his way back, but shoulder injuries like his are notoriously fickle. (3-5% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Tommy Kahnle (DET, 42% CBS Rostership, 3% FAAB), Kirby Yates (LAD, 40% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jason Adam (SDP, 39% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Will Vest (DET, 34% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB, Lucas Erceg (KCR, 33% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Chris Martin (TEX, 26% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB)

15 Team Adds

Zach Agnos (COL, 8% CBS Rostership) – He has a 2.9 K/9 as a closer!! Haha, we are so desperate for saves! But all road games for the Rox this week mitigates a sliver of that risk. (1-3% FAAB)

QUICK HITS: Bryan Abreu (HOU, 20% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Calvin Faucher (MIA, 13% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Matt Strahm (PHI, 10% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Yimi Garcia (TOR, 11% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Reed Garrett (NYM, 9% CBS Rostership, 1-3% FAAB), Jesus Tinoco (MIA, 6% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Phil Maton (STL, 4% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Jordan Leasure (CHW, 2% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB), Jalen Beeks (ARI, 2% CBS Rostership, 1% FAAB)