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I’ve never been a big fan of the small slates with 3-4 games.  DraftKings calls them “turbos”, I call them, “no-gos”.  In a game with so much variance, I don’t need to mess around with rosters with 75% overlap.  Therefore, we’ll be taking a look at the night slate on this Wednesday.  The full day contests aren’t really much more enticing.  I have a hard enough time setting aside the time to research for my lineups, get them built, check the weather, and monitor things up until 7:05.  Adding in more random start times throughout the day just doesn’t do much for me.  So, during this night slate we have some interesting pitching choices.  Max Scherzer is the (very) good, then there’s some “meh” and finally, there’s a whole lot of ugly.  We all know Scherzer’s upside.  Even his last time out when he gave up 5 runs before Nats fans even got settled into their seats, he still settled down to go 7 IP with 6 Ks and turn a negative 12 point outing into 13+ points.  He’s a horse and against the Phillies and their third worst team OPS, he’s the #1 cash game option of the night.  That’s a no brainer.  Maneuvering through the uglies is where things will get tricky tonight.  Let’s do some digging and see if we can find a 10 hidden among the slew of ugly:

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Felix Hernandez, SP: $11,000 – I’m a Coors stacker whenever possible, so I could absolutely see taking the discount on your top pitcher if it meant rostering Arenado and CarGo vs. David Freese and Jason Heyward.  The Padres are always a target and despite a lower K-rate and higher BB-rate than years past, he’s still a vet that knows how to pitch against a bad team.  Felix and the Mariners are still decent favorites on the road (-170) and the over/under for this game is only 7.  I would be completely comfortable with a Felix/Lester one, two punch for cash games with the standard sprinkling of Coors plays.

Mike Fiers, SP: $6,200 – I told you it was going to get ugly.  This one is putting a lot of faith in Vegas (who has the Astros as -160 favorites vs. Arizona at home) and the SON (who has Fiers as a $16.8 play tonight).  I can’t say I totally understand it, but I’ll trust the SON for a GPP play at the risk of it doing the naughty with my dishwasher.

Williams Perez, SP: $4,900 – For this price, if Perez gets you 12 or more points, you have to be positively giddy.  While the Williamses won’t wow you with strikeout stuff, they also don’t tend to walk themselves into trouble either.  With Matt Cain hitting the DL, it will be Albert Suarez and the Giants bullpen handling pitching duties, which means the Braves might, actually, maybe have a shot at winning a game.  When trying to cram in those high upside Coors plays, Perez is the perfect salary cap relief option.

Dustin Garneau, C: $2,900 – Cheap catcher, in Coors, with the platoon advantage.  That pretty much checks all the boxes for me.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $4,400 – Don’t go getting complacent because of Rizzo’s recent struggles.  The heart of the Cubs order can and will break out of his funk eventually.  If you’re not stacking Coors (Mark Reynolds – $4,400) then I’d recommend taking a shot on what should be a very low-owned Rizzo.

Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,000 – If the Braves are actually going to put up a fight against the Giants, it will have to be Freeman hitting 4 solo HRs.  Freeman is as low as I would go tonight in the first base field.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $4,700 – I have to be honest, it takes every ounce of my willpower to not just fill this article with Coors plays.  DraftKings usually does a pretty good job with their “dynamic pricing” of jacking up the salaries of the Coors field crew so you can’t stack them all up.  Something seems to have gotten soft today though and LeMahieu ($3,900) and Phillips ($3,600) are priced quite nicely.  If I had to avoid Coors, I’d default to mighty mouse, Dustin Pedroia.  Petey has double digit points in 3 of his last 4 games and Mike Wright hasn’t been very intimidating.

Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,300 – “Corey gets all the hype.”  That’s Kyle at the Thanksgiving Day table later this year.  While true, Kyle gets all the production right now.  Kyle makes for an interesting play tonight.  He’s likely to be very low owned given the Petco factor and the lefty/lefty match-up. Surprisingly, Kyle has gotten the better of Friedrich in their limited meetings, taking him deep twice in 6 ABs.

Jung Ho Kang, 3B: $3,900 – I went with Kang over Freese Monday night and it cost me dearly.  I’ll go back to that well though and know in my heart that Kang is a better hitter than David Freese.  Kang always occupies prime lineup real estate (typically clean-up spot) and even in Crayola Canyon has the muscle to put the ball out of the park.

Carlos Correa, SS: $3,600 – Correa, Correa…nope, doesn’t ring a bell.  After an offseason filled with talk of not if but where in the first round he should be drafted, the buzz has seemed to wear off of Correa.  He’s still on pace for a 25/25 season and is a hot streak away from making that a 30/30 season.  While Robbie Ray has been a favorite of mine for his strikeout potential this year, he’s still hittable.  I’d much rather bet on Correa at a depressed price.

George Springer, OF: $4,500 – A triple shy of the cycle last night and a 3 for 4 night before that, Springer has been on a roll.  With Fiers being a big favorite and the over/under on this game set at 9 I have to believe Vegas sees HOU putting up some big time runs on Robbie Ray.  Give me Springer in that onslaught all day.

Ryan Raburn, OF: $3,600 – More cheap Coors exposure.  With the lefty Lamb on the mound for the Reds, look for Walt Weiss to mix in Ryan Raburn and get CarGo or Parra the night off.

Trayce Thompson, OF: $2,900 – Power is the name of the game and with Puig out nursing a sore hammy, Trayce will have a clear shot at a start and a chance to show off that power stroke.  Sure, Jon Lester can be stingy, but if we’re concerned with upside potential for a GPP lineup, Trayce fits the bill.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

My favorite kind of night, the kind where the only rain concern is over a stadium with a retractable roof.  God bless the inventor of the retractable stadium roof.

Doing Lines In Vegas

I already mentioned that King Felix is the biggest favorite of the night.  That game also features the lowest over/under of the night (7).  Coors field is, as always the highest over/under at 11 runs, however Boston at Baltimore is giving it a run for it’s money with a 9.5 run total.  Joe Kelly is awful and mark my words, it will only be a matter of time until he’s in the bullpen.  In the meantime, load up on Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado to your heart’s content.

   
  1. I was looking at Perez as well for the sneaky play…

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Yes, but which one?

  2. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    I was staring at Williams Perez and wondering if I should take the plung in order to fund my coors stack… I’m going to Truss you and just go for it.

    Funny Clay Buchholz says the same thing about Joe Kelly.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      I’m all aboard, Coors stack paid off pretty well last night, we’ll see if it can again.

      Buchholz, man, what a disaster he’s been. Still, I think Kelly is better suited for the ‘pen.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @MattTruss: Yeah I honestly don’t understand the struggle to keep him in the rotation. The fastball is live, let him use it to his advantage in the pen. Particularly with Carson Smith out for 18 months.

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
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          I agree, he’s got two good pitches, one of which pushes upper 90s, the other is an OK slider. His curve and change are pretty “meh”. It’s like someone is bound and determined to prove he’s a starter to show trading Lackey away wasn’t a colossal waste…Oh, hi Allen Craig, how’s Pawtucket?

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @MattTruss: Yeah it’s almost as if the Craig thing hasn’t been magnified because of Shaw’s emergence. What a garbage trade, but if Kelly becomes a solid pen piece it redeems it quite a bit.

            BTW can you please go on a run in Razznasty? I need to title a post “Can’t Truss It” as soon as possible.

            • MattTruss

              MattTruss says:
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              Tell me about it! Speaking of Clay, he’s almost single handily destroyed my ERA/WHIP there. OK, him and Keuchel, boy that blew up in my face (was happy to trade him for Dansby though). Oh and Cody Anderson was horrendous…OK, maybe it wasn’t just Clay, my pitching has been very, very bad.

  3. Scott says:
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    Got anything cheaper?

    – Skinflint Scott

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Well, sure, we’ve got this John Lamb that’s been sitting out in the sun for 5 days, in Coors field for $4,700. There’s also some Mike Wright, but he’s past his expiration date. We could dust off this $4,100 Adam Morgan facing the Nationals. That won’t go down easy. If I had to sell you something, it’d be at MOST 5 IP from $4,000 Albert Suarez, facing the Braves, who are miserable. You’re at risk of a 3 IP outing there though, so food poisoning or about 6 points from your SP look like your options in the discount bin. Your call.

      • Scott says:
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        @MattTruss: Very interesting. You drive a hard bargain Mister Truss!

  4. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
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    Felix to the DL….Boooooo

  5. J-FOH says:
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    Felix to the DL

    and dont these posts come after or around the time the morning set has started so its probably best not to write about anything for the morning games….IMHO

    Either way, great work as usual

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
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      Yea, 1 o’clock, so you can occasionally have ~5 mins to make a lineup. Thanks FOH!

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