The break is over! How long was that?10 Days? It’s never a good day when there is no baseball. But we’re back, so let’s get into the picks. Marcus Stroman had a less than stellar start to his season. He will be looking to lower his 4.89 ERA in the second half of the season. After slightly tweaking his mechanics, his last two starts resembled the heroic Stroman of 2015. In his last two starts, he has thrown 14.2 innings where he has gave up only 3 runs on 8 hits, and issuing 6 K with only 1 BB. As the season wears on, Stroman has thrown harder. He started the year off throwing around 92 mph, and his his last two starts he has averaged over 94 mph. Not only is he throwing harder, he has also been utilising his slider. He increased his slider percentage to 38% in his last two starts, and has generated a 25% whiff percentage from it. Stroman has seen success when throwing less of a variety of pitches. He is unlikely to rack up 10+ K, but I can see him pitching 7 innings with 6 K. He should provide value at his price of $7,500. The only issue I have with Stro is that he might be hungover from his trip to Cabo during the break. And with that, I give you the rest of my picks for this Friday DFS slate…
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Madison Bumgarner, SP: $11,100 – Rich Hill has been good, but he should not be more expensive than MadBum. Rich Hill may be in Oakland, but he is facing the Jays. MadBum gets the Padres… the Padres! The Padres have been good against LHP, but you know who else has…the Diamondbacks. Against the Diamondbacks, MadBum pitched a complete game, giving up only 1 hit and 1 walk, along with 14 strikeouts! Plus the Padres have a higher K% than the Diamondbacks.
James Paxton, SP: $7,800 – He has only managed 2 K in each of his last 2 starts, but today gets the Astros. The Astros have an 87 wRC+ and a 23.8% K% vs LHP. He is still lighting up the radar gun, and should be able to sit down batters this evening.
Jorge De La Rosa, SP: $7,300 – Another lefty! Jorge has thrown 4 straight quality starts against 4 quality teams. Those starts came against the Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Marlins, where he averaged 15.9 fantasy points. Today he is facing off against the Braves, who have a 21% K% and a 71 wRC+ vs LHP. He will have a much better chance for the win against the Braves and should be able to manage at least 15 points. He has shown issues with his command and has gave up several walks, but the Braves are only walking 6.1% of the time vs LHP.
Yasmani Grandal, C: $4,200 – With 6 homers (3 in one game) in his last 10 games, Grandal has been HOT! Playing in the desert against Patrick Corbin, he should stay hot. This switch hitting catcher has been better from the right side of plate throughout his career. Since 2015 he has a 128 wRC+ vs LHP. He also owns the highest OBP among catchers, in that span, with a .411 OBP. That OBP should grow vs Corbin, as he has gave up 12 BB and only 7 K in his last 3 starts.
Salvador Perez, C: $3,500 – The World Series MVP was close to winning the All-Star MVP with a 2 run bomb. More bombs may being coming today off Verlander. In 49 PA against Verlander, Perez has a 1.230 OPS with 2 bombs. This season Verlander has been giving up more homers to RHB. In that past two and half seasons Perez has 30 homers off RHP to only 12 off LHP.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $4,100 – Ian Kennedy has been pitching pretty good, but he has been giving up a ton of homers. He has gave up 13 bombs in his last 7 starts. 16 of 18 Miggy’s homers have came off RHP. Miggy is also batting .322 with a 149 wRC+ vs RHP.
Logan Morrison, 1B: $3,300 – As much as I am not a fan of him, I’m even less of a fan of Yovani Gallardo. But, he’s a cheap power option at first base. In his limited starts this season, Gallardo has been getting drilled by lefties. LoMo is often finding his way into my tournament lineups.
Robinson Cano, 2B: $4,400 – With a .374 wOBA against, it’s safe to say Fister has been dominated by LHB this season. Cano may not have done well in the HR Derby, but that won’t get to his head. He’s batting .322 with 17 HR vs RHP this season.
Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF: $3,400 – Looking to win in DFS … this is howie do it! He was lights out heading into the break. He has hits in 9 of his last 10 games, and averaged 8.8 fantasy points over that span.
Maikel Franco, 3B: $4,400 – Franco is riding a 10 game hit streak and has hits in 15 of his last 16 games. Franco has shown reverse splits this season, with a 14 homers and 115 wRC+ vs RHP. Colon’s age may be affecting his ability to deceive batters. He has the second worst swing strike %, the second worst zone contact %, and his worst hard-hit% of his career.
Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $4,200 – Archer has gave up 3+ runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. $4,200 seems a little cheap for a someone batting .318 with a .392 wOBA. Machado was struggling going into the break, with a .560 OPS in his last 10 games. With a couple days off regular season action and trip to San Diego, I think Manny can back to being him old self against a pitcher he has seen success with in the past.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,100 – One of my favorite cash plays of any player at any position. He’s been a .300 batter from both side of the plate in his career so far and will not blow your bank. It is pretty rare to end up with a 0 from your SS position with Lindor in your lineup.
Carlos Beltran, OF: $4,200 – After an impressive debut last season, things haven’t been good for Eduardo Rodriguez this season. This season he owns a 8.59 ERA and a .421 wOBA to RHB. At 39 years old, Carlos is still slugging away. Against LHP he is batting .330 with a 1.017 OPS. All of Eduardo’s homers have been from RHP and Beltran has slugged 12 homers at home so far.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: $3,900 – You take Charlie out of Coors, but you take Coors out of Charlie. Obviously his numbers are better at home, but they are still impressive on the road. On the road vs RHP Blackmon is batting .324 with a .901 OPS. During the second half of last season, Blackmon tore up the base-paths with a league leading 20 SB. This season, the Braves have allowed 66 SB and have only caught 13% of runners attempting to steal (worst in the MLB).
Tommy Pham, OF: $3,400 – Need a cheap and low owned play? I got you Pham! With a LHP Chen on the mound and Carpenter still on the DL, Pham may get the opportunity to bat lead off. Make sure to check the lineups before game time.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
PLAY BALL! All games look clear and should be playable. The only game with heavy winds are in Oakland. The wind should die down throughout the game from 13 – 8 mph.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There on not a lot of big favorites on todays slate. As with most of his matchups, MadBum and the Gaints are at the top at -200. A few teams get the edge at -150 favorites, who are Cleveland (Carrasco), and St. Louis (Garcia), and Detriot (Verlander). The highest total of the day is in Yankee Stadium featuring Rodrigues (BOS) and Pineda (NYY). NYM/PHI and MIL/CIN are right behind them with a total of 9.