It happens all the time. You love Player A, but he’s on a slate you’re not playing, but you love him in a tasty matchup the next day. Not many people know about him except for sharp daily players and you’re all set to roster him and count some cash. Then, disaster strikes. In that early slate, in a not-so-good matchup, the most non-profitable thing happens: He plays well. Not just well, though, but look-at-me well.
The next day you roster him anyway, hoping everyone won’t be on him but there it goes, his ownership well into double digits. Player exposed, and value play ruined. Cash harder to come by.
I’ll walk through an example about this phenomenon later in the article, when I highlight David Peralta, who people know but had slid back under the radar and hadn’t been rostered a heck of a lot by my count lately in GPPs. That situation is no Dan Uggla situation, who came from the dead Tuesday in a DFS REVENGE game against the Braves, but Peralta should have been a solid recommendation that now looks like recency bias and chasing. Se la.
Tell me about when this happened to you in the comments area and good luck on a very top heavy pitching day.
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Felix Hernandez, SP: $10,600 – Between he and Zack Greinke, we’re riding with the King against the Rangers. Both teams should win, and neither opponent is strikeout crazy, but the Giants may just hit well enough against Greinke to tilt the scales to Felix. In deeper analysis, Felix is good.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $7,700 – He’s thrown at least six innings in his last three starts, going seven his last time out, so he’s stretching just fine as a starter this season. In those games, Martinez has fanned eight, four and eight so he has the goods even beyond relief stints. Vegas has him as the highest favorite to win, tied with Greinke and Hernandez.
Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $3,700 – Sorry, I am not quite ready to quit Stephen Vogt. Sure, he only got two hits and a run scored against Jered Weaver last night but I don’t hate, I appreciate. Vogt goes back in against Matt Shoemaker, who has surprisingly struggled so far this season against lefties, rolling over a 1000 OPS early on this year.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,000 – Freeman is the only player to be in the top 20 in the hard hit balls, hard hit fly balls + line drives and fly ball rate categories. He’s killing it, folks, and his price on DraftKings is this reasonable because the Braves have conspired to try and ensure nobody is on base ahead of him.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $4,900 – Of the higher priced fellows, Gonzalez is hitting almost as well as Freeman and he gets Ryan Vogelsong, who is wearing the struggle-face so much in April his face may just stay that way, or so my mom always said.
Howie Kendrick, 2B: $4,200 – I thought that Howie Kendrick batting cleanup for LA was odd, but all he’s done is crush in that spot, and it doesn’t matter if it’s lefties or righties coming at him. He’s popping and in a game that should feature a high team total for the Dodgers, he’s all set.
DJ LeMahieu, 2B: $3,800 – The Rockies/Diamondbacks series has been pretty good for ol’ stat lines so D.J., who could be the sneaky play in a Rockies stack, can pad his league leading .406 average one more game. Then you can go back to ignoring him until he gets back to Coors.
Alex Guerrero, 2B/SS: $3,400 – Oh, he went 0-3 Tuesday night! It’s all over! The novelty of Alex Guerrero has worn off and a bottoming out should follow! That’s what you should be selling to everyone else while you can sneak this power-punch dude in at shortstop against Vogelsong.
Marcus Semien, 3B/SS: $3,700 – If Guerrero gets Mattingly’d again, you can shift over to Semien, who continues to produce out of the second spot in a still-potent A’s lineup.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,400 – Elite hitting Rockies player in a good matchup against questionable pitching talent available as the third highest salaried third baseman. OK, I’ll take it.
David Peralta, OF: $3,900 – I had this recommendation all planned out. I’d go with Peralta against Jordan Lyles because Peralta smashes righties and has above average power metrics to boot. I’d snicker a bit because he’s been sitting a little bit in Arizona, but he’d be in, likely batting fifth and I’d high-five myself and cash in. Then he homered and doubled Tuesday night, setting off Peralta alarms. Sure, you would’ve rostered him anyway, but recency bias will pull in even more owners. All that said, I’m still in.
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,000 – Seems the only guy who can’t figure out that Joc Pederson is crushing is Don Mattingly. However, with Puig and Crawford out and the Dodgers facing a weak righty, sure Pederson can get in the lineup and bat sixth, right? Seventh? Come on, Donny Baseball.
Charlie Blackmon, OF: $4,600 – Leading off against Collmenter in a likely high scoring game seems right. He’s not a fluke, having above average power metrics to piggy-back on last year’s breakout season.
Josh Reddick, OF: $4,200 – An old DFS friend, I was happy to see Reddick move up to sixth in the lineup for Oakland. Next stop, Ike Davis’ fifth slot. Reddick has always crushed the ball and is a solid play against Shoemaker.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
All evening games look good to go with the only bad weather looking like it will be in Miami, where they can simply zip up their roof and play ball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Not surprisingly the Colorado @ Arizona game has the early highest total at 9. The game stands out as most of the other evening offerings are in the seven range.
