Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunday!
Just like always, we’ve got a very hearty 11-game slate on our hands today, with a number of stud SP’s set to take the mound, 5 of which are priced above $10k, which begs the question of which high-priced stud we want.
There’s a couple of issues that I have with each “ace” that we have on our hands today with the exception being Noah Syndergaard.
Max Scherzer: We’ve seen the 20-strikeout performance, and we know the upside that he brings to the table with his high K%, but he brings serious blowout potential with his 21.30% HR/FB rate, his low GB-rate, and the fact that he doesn’t do well against lefties is cause for concern.
Jordan Zimmermann: His 2.45 ERA makes it seem that he is playing at a good level, but that is not true. He lacks the ability to strike guys out with his stuff, with a 16.40 K% and a 7.40 SwK%, and I prefer the likes of Danny Salazar for less.
Cole Hamels: Yes, Houston strikes out a bunch, causing for opposing pitchers to get a price bumb, yet I don’t think anyone should pay up for Hamels when you can get other, better pitchers for less. Hamels has serious blowup potential with a daunting 25.0% HR/FB rate, and while he has been solid this year, he isn’t doing that well for me to want to use him, yet we can’t really pick on him that much with our bats.
With that being said, I don’t think there are any cheap/value options on the slate that we should use, as most of the lower-priced guys are the ones we want to pick on. Especially Alfredo Simon and Phil Hughes.
You ready? Let’s break it down.
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Noah Syndergaard, SP: $13,300 – $13k certainly is pricey, and he should come with high ownership levels, but I believe it’s worth it. He has the highest upside on the slate out of any SP’s simply due to his tremendous ability to get out guys with his stuff, sporting a 31.60 K%, and a 14.70 SwK% so far in 2016. His matchup against Milwaukee is certainly a good one, and the fact that combining the matchup, park factors, and weather has resulted in a -235 ML according to Vegas should tell you all that you should need to know. Fade at your own risk in cash.
Danny Salazar, SP: $9,100 – I love Salazar today. For those of you that read any of the DFS NFL articles last year on the football site, he’s reaching the Carson Palmer level. You know what I’m talking about. Somewhere in Salazar is the $10,700-$11,000 ace we saw at the beginning of the year, but now we see his salary at $9.1k. Here’s what we got with Salazar: He’s not favorited, and he’s going against a Red Sox team that is in tip-top form right now, which, by itself, would lead to low ownership levels, but when you throw in so many other high-priced SP’s into the mix, Salazar’s ownership levels will be really low. Even with a somewhat daunting opponent, we can’t ignore his 31.00 K%, 13.20 SwK%, 51% GB rate, and his extremely low 4.90 HR/FB rate, showing us that he doesn’t have a blowup potential, yet high upside to carry us to the top of a leaderboard. I’m all in.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $7,800 – If you cannot fit Syndergaard and Salazar in, then Rodon should make a fine salary relief play, although I much rather just use those guys and have to use more value bats, than the other way around, as there aren’t many spots you can take a value guy at. Here’s what Rodon has going for him today: He’s favorited, Yordano Ventura is not that good at all, and Rodon is absolutely lights-out against lefties (something Kansas City has 5 of) to the tune of a 1.94 xFIP, 32.00 K%, and a 2.00 BB%. Like I said before, if you must use a salary relief SP because you can’t fit in Salazar or Syndergaard, or even Chris Archer, who can be used as well, then look to Rodon.
Yadier Molina, C: $3,100 – Zack Greinke has been very disappointing this year, and has another big test against the Cardinals today. His 5.08 ERA isn’t the whole truth, has his more-realistic 3.7 SIERA should indicate that he isn’t as bad as his ERA indicates. However it should be noted that he is struggling to get guys out with his stuff with a low K% at 20.9%, something we should expect to be higher from Greinke. He also has blowup potential with a 13.8 HR/FB rate. Molina is doing very well against RHP’s so far in 2016 to the tune of a 10.9 BB%, a very low 8.4 K%, with a .394 wOBA and a 147 wRC+.
Russell Martin, C: $3,100 – The biggest knack on Martin is the fact that he strikes out too much, and with the fact that he is the same price has Molina, he should see lower ownership. Phil Hughes is going to be blown up by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Martin should benefit with the platoon advantage, and is significantly cheaper than the other guys on his team. Hughes has struggled to get guys out with his stuff in 2016 so far, with a 15.10 K% and a 6.10 SwK%, with blowup potential, with a 37.50 Hard%, and a 13.00% HR/FB rate. Good thing for us, Hughes does the worst against righties, with a 4.46 xFIP, a low 14.2 K%, and a .320 wOBA allowed. Martin has done fairly well against RHP’s in his career, and if he keeps his strikeouts down, it should be noted that he sports a 10.3 BB%, .733 OPS, and a 100 wRC+.
Mitch Moreland, 1B: $2,800 – Like Greinke, Dallas Keuchel has had a very disappointing 2016 campaign so far, and Moreland can continue to benefit off of Keuchel’s struggles today. Keuchel has not been very hot against lefties this year, as he has a 4.05 xFIP and a very low 11.5 K%, to go along with a general low K% and a very high Hard% of 30.0%. Moreland has done well against righties this year to the tune of a .739 OPS, to go along with a 10.5 BB% and a .158 ISO. At $2,800, he should save you some salary space.
Justin Smoak, 1B: $3,500 – Not as expensive as the other Toronto bats, yet he is just as lethal against RHP’s than his fellow teammates. As I mentioned above with Martin, Phil Hughes is going to be blown up by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Smoak should benefit with the platoon advantage, and is significantly cheaper than the other guys on his team. Hughes has struggled to get guys out with his stuff in 2016 so far, with a 15.10 K% and a 6.10 SwK%, with blowup potential, with a 37.50 Hard%, and a 13.00% HR/FB rate. Good thing for us, Hughes does the worst against righties, with a 4.46 xFIP, a low 14.2 K%, and a .320 wOBA allowed. Smoak has been beasting and feasting on RHP’s so far in 2016 to the tune of a 18.5 BB%, .200 ISO, a .413 wOBA and a 166 wRC+.
Daniel Murphy, 2B: $3,600 – Here’s what we know about Adam Conley: he has a semi-weak GB% at 38.10%, a 31.60 Hard%, and is absolutely terrible against lefties, to the tune of a 5.11 xFIP, 11.80 K%, and a .420 wOBA allowed. All of this sets up for the only two lefties that should be featured today, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. Murphy has done well against southpaws in 2016 so far to the tune of a .170 ISO, .424 BABIP, a .373 wOBA and a 131 wRC+.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,700 – First off, what a punch. Second off, as I mentioned with Mitch Moreland, Dallas Keuchel has not been very hot against lefties this year, as he has a 4.05 xFIP and a very low 11.5 K%, to go along with a general low K% and a very high Hard% of 30.0%. Odor has been absolutely demolishing RHP’s so far in 2016 to the tune of a .239 ISO, a .338 wOBA and a 108 wRC+. As those stats can indicate, he mostly brings power to the table, and I am expecting at least one HR today.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $5,100 – He’s the chalk play, just like always. Like I mentioned above with Smoak, Phil Hughes is going to be blown up by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Donaldson should benefit with the platoon advantage, Hughes has struggled to get guys out with his stuff in 2016 so far, with a 15.10 K% and a 6.10 SwK%, with blowup potential, with a 37.50 Hard%, and a 13.00% HR/FB rate. Good thing for us, Hughes does the worst against righties, with a 4.46 xFIP, a low 14.2 K%, and a .320 wOBA allowed. Donaldson has done really well against RHP’s so far in 2016 to the tune of an 11.1 BB%, .230 ISO, .330 wOBA and a 107 wRC+. Like Odor, we’re mostly expecting dingers. I couldn’t find any other 3B’s that get the job done like Donaldson does today. He’s a must-play.
Aledmys Diaz, SS: $3,300 – As I mentioned above with Molina, Zack Greinke has been very disappointing this year, and has another big test against the Cardinals today. His 5.08 ERA isn’t the whole truth, has his more-realistic 3.7 SIERA should indicate that he isn’t as bad as his ERA indicates. However it should be noted that he is struggling to get guys out with his stuff with a low K% at 20.9%, something we should expect to be higher from Greinke. He also has blowup potential with a 13.8 HR/FB rate. Diaz has been crushing it so far against RHP’s in 2016 to the tune of a very low 9.1 K%, .297 ISO, a .462 wOBA, a .400 BABIP and a 193 wRC+. It will most likely not continue for the rest of 2016, but through 99 AB’s, that should give you an idea of how good he has been so far.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $4,200 – You can see that a Toronto Stack is in order. Like I mentioned above with Donaldson, Phil Hughes is going to be blown up by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Tulowitzki should benefit with the platoon advantage, and Hughes has struggled to get guys out with his stuff in 2016 so far, especially righties. Tulowitzki has done fairly well against RHP’s in 2016 so far with a .250 ISO, .328 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He should bring immense power to our lineups.
Bryce Harper, OF: $4,800 – Let’s just hope he doesn’t get walked 8 billion times. Like I mentioned above with Murphy, Adam Conley owns a semi-weak GB% at 38.10%, a 31.60 Hard%, and is absolutely terrible against lefties, to the tune of a 5.11 xFIP, 11.80 K%, and a .420 wOBA allowed. Harper has demolished southpaws in 2016 to the tune of a 16.7 BB%, .333 ISO, .417 wOBA and a 161 wRC+. Fade at your own risk.
Melky Cabrera, OF: $3,100 – Yordano Ventura has not done very so far this year, with a 5.65 SIERA, and a 16% K% to prove it, and has done even worse against lefties to the tune of a horrible 6.80 xFIP, a 10.8 K%, and a 18.60 BB%. Cabrera has done well against RHP’s in 2016 with a .790 OPS, .333 BABIP, a .347 wOBA and a 120 wRC+. Although he don’t see the power we would like to from him in DFS, he still gets on base at a high level, and should pay off his $3.1k price without a HR.
Randal Grichuck, OF: $3,200 – You can see by now that a Cardinals stack is definitely in play. As I mentioned with Molina, Zack Greinke has been very disappointing this year, and has another big test against the Cardinals today. His 5.08 ERA isn’t the whole truth, has his more-realistic 3.7 SIERA should indicate that he isn’t as bad as his ERA indicates. However it should be noted that he is struggling to get guys out with his stuff with a low K% at 20.9%, something we should expect to be higher from Greinke. He also has blowup potential with a 13.8 HR/FB rate. Grichuck has done very well against RHP’s in 2016 so far to the tune of a .214 ISO, a .330 wOBA and a 103 wRC+.
Honorary Mention for Tournaments- Desmond Jennings, OF: $2,900
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Only two issues today, and it comes in the Houston and Pittsburgh games. At Houston, it should be some thunderstorms and rain to follow all throughout the day, but due to them using a retractable roof to neutralize the conditions, it shouldn’t be a cause for concern. At PNC Park, there’s some concern to the point that I would avoid it. The issue in Pittsburgh is that there are little to no weather concerns prior to the scheduled 1:35 pm EST first pitch, but there is a 65% chance of precipitation to go along with thunderstorms from 2pm-6pm. The most likely situation is that they try to start the game, but will end up having to cancel it, maybe even after waiting it out. I would avoid the game, unless you strongly believe this will drive ownership levels for the Pittsburgh/Colorado bats.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Syndergaard is the favorited pitcher for today, with the highest, or lowest ML at -235 against Milwaukee, deeming him the title of the safest pick for today. Most of the games can be labeled as a “pick-em” game, as any team could come out on top, and we see that in the DET-TB game, BOS-CLE game, and the CWS-KC game. The highest O/U of the day comes at the CIN-SEA game at 9 total runs, and there should be plenty of offense to be had in that game with the very weak pitchers featured.
Alright guys, thanks for sticking around, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday night!
Go read a book.
You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @ohuhave12
