On a day where pitching isn’t deep and very top-heavy, it gets really hard to look past the tops of the charts.  Clayton Kershaw you say?  Don’t mind if I do.  Jacob deGrom?  Yes please may I have some more.  For me, I’m looking at a guy who gets to face the Atlanta Braves.  Said Atlanta Braves sit tied for last in wRC+ since the start of the second half.  Also, said Atlanta Braves are missing their best bat in Freeman and have so much scrub in the lineup I’m about to start calling them the Scotch-Brites.  Guaranteed to keep the scoreboards clean!  But the biggest thing Jake Odorizzi has going for him isn’t even the opponent.  Actually, it’s where he’s pitching.  Jake is a home schooler.  Through 51 innings at the Trop, Jake owns a 1.41 ERA.  Sure, he’s a little lucky in that regards as his xFIP is more than double that at 3.44 but you know what helps you luck out?  How about a 9.12 K/9 rate and a 20.2% K%-BB%.  Overall, given the higher end options, many may find it hard to look Odorizzi’s way.  Don’t be one of those people who says Odor’in ain’t easy Izzi and go with Jake.  But enough about my strange rap and hip hop references, here we go.  Let’s look at my it’s getting hot in here takes for this Wednesday DK slate…

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Danny Salazar, SP: $10,500 – The epitome of tourney play, Salazar gets the Yankees at home.  Will he give up none and K 10 or give up 10 and K none?  There’s your range.  At 10.5K, I’m staying away in cash but all about it in GPP.

Jason Hammel, SP: $8,500 – Priced a tad higher than what his risk entails in my book but at the same time, he gets a Brewers squad that’s been depleted by trades and it wasn’t very good even before that.  A 25 point performance is possible here which may be all you need from your SP2 on a day like this.

R.A. Dickey, SP: $7,800 – So, what’s up DK?  Ya just gonna lie to me and tell me Mark Buehrle is starting all morning?  Yeah, doing a mad scramble swap right now.  The price is more than I’d like but the numbers suggest the A’s don’t know how to handle a good Dickey and that’s just what R.A. is right now.

Jorge de la Rosa, SP: $6,600 – Last night, Chris Rusin held the Mets to one run on 8 hits over 6 innings, striking out 5.  What does that have to do with George of the Rose?  Rusin is a lefty and lefties are the Mets kryptonite this year.  This is a tourney only call and one simply to try and get priced up bats in with.  There’s no loan program at DK to afford Josh Donaldson at $6,100, fam.  Gotta cut corners somewhere.

John Jaso, C: $3,100 – I’m looking to pay down at catcher today if at all possible.  Jaso makes for a great cash game play but it’s gonna be one of those days where I wait until lineups come out to see what near 2K schlub is in the lineup and probably go with them.

Prince Fielder, 1B: $4,800 – So we all know Mike Pelfrey is no good but he’s really no good vs lefties.  I mean, he walks them more often than he K’s them.  You’re not hoping for a HR here as Mike has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park but Fielder has been getting ground ball singles like he’s Ichiro all year.  A Rangers stack makes a lot of sense but unless Pelfrey gets removed early, it could be unsatisfying.

C.J. Cron, 1B: $2,900 – If you’re trying to pay down at 1B…heck if you’re trying to pay down everywhere so you can afford Kershaw, Cron is hitting .313 off of lefties this year with a 120 wRC+.  It’s nothing to go crazy over but with John Danks on the mound, it’s hard not to like rostering a few righty bats from the Angels.  I’d obviously consider Mike Trout but also even Shane Victorino here.

Wilmer Flores, 2B/SS: $3,200 – As I mentioned yesterday, the only Met that actually hits lefties well which says a lot about how good the Mets have been vs lefties this year.  Anyhoo, I’d expect him to bat no lower than 5th and with his doubles and HRs pop, could be a good get.

Miguel Sano, 3B: $4,200 – Nick Martinez’ reverse splits this year have been well documented.  Sano’s power potential is enticing as is Brian Dozier’s in this matchup.  The Power Twins!  I’m sorry, I’ll leave now…

Danny Valencia, 3B/OF: $3,400 – I’ll remove Valencia from my suggestions when he stops hitting and batting cleanup, m’kay?

Jose Ramirez, 2B/SS: $2,800 – Still batting lead off, still dirt cheap.  When he starts poking above the 3K range, I’ll have to reconsider but until then, this little Indian stays in my cupboard.

Gregory Polanco, OF: 3,800 – Has been toasty warm of late (read: not hot but getting there) and I don’t have as much faith in Wacha as others do.  I’ll take a chance on getting in on the Polanco action at this price.

Chris Colabello, OF: $3,700 – Notice I haven’t talked much about the Blue Jays?  They are waaaaay overpriced.  If you’re paying up at pitching today, you aren’t getting them but you know they’re all in play.  But, if you’re looking for a cheap way to get in, Chris has been batting no lower than 5th of late and has been hitting the ball well.  There’s no reason not to pop the cap on this Cola at this price.

Andre Ethier, OF: $2,800 – Um, 2.8K?  Yeah, Ethier has been batting 5th or 6th for the Dodgers and on a night where Kershaw is on the mound, I always like to try and roster the bats behind the ace in at least one tourney but at the very least, Ethier at this price point is just worth it.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

There should be no moisture problems for the evening or the overall slate today.  So set your rosters, put out your slip ‘n’ slide, and go enjoy what remains of summer!  Yes, that means go outside.  Yes, you have to unlock the door to do it.  You’re worrying me here…

Doing Lines In Vegas

Lots of heavy favorites today with Kershaw, deGrom, Dickey, and Odorizzi all coming it at -200 or better.  It’s gonna be hard to avoid the chalk plays at pitching with lines like that.  It gets even harder when your other options are Edinson Volquez at -185 being the runner up.  A lot of run lines adjusting down from their open today, so the Vegas peeps think a lot of games will be pitching heavy with the exception of TORvsOAK which bumped from 8.5 to 9.  This further pushes the notion to get in where/when you can on Jays bats to me.  Also with an 8 o/u, it would be wise to consider some bats from at least the KC side today in the KCvsDET tilt.  It’s all about being frugal with your DK lineups according to Sin City.

 
  1. CL (UncleCos) says:
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    Here’s a first; started Martinez & Walker in my lineup yesterday and proceeded to get 3 points out of all of my bats. 3 points from Forsythe actually.

    I cannot win as of late.

    Thoughts on Wacha / Cole matchup tonight?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Wow, that’s tough to do but trust me, I’ve been there. Just gotta keep grindin…

      I don’t roster Wacha, he just doesn’t last long enough in a game to make it fruitful. I’m fine with Cole, just not a guy I’m targeting tonight.

  2. Trader says:
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    I know this is a bit off topic for this thread, but long-term keeper: Pederson or Springer?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Tough, similar talents in my book. I’ll say Springer; it looks like Pederson’s baserunning is suspect and not going to lead to the SB totals everyone was talking about.

      • Trader says:
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        @Sky: thanks Sky!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          No worries

  3. Teddy Heater says:
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    Sky,
    I hit the books this morning on the early games, so I’m curious to see how those play out. I was looking up HR’s per park and boy was I in the dark. Petco (2.09 per game) & Safeco 2.16 are in the top 5 for HR’s in their respective leagues and Citi field 1.97 is 6th in HR’s in the NL. Bal 2.92 & NYY 2.68 are better than Coors at 2.5 with Miller park coming in right behind at 2.45. It was eye opening to say the least.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Weather has been a bigger factor than people have recognized. Coors was a weather-laden mess until late May so I expect to see some changes in numbers over the remainder of the year. San Diego usually still has think air to start the year but this year that sea layer burned off early. I can vouch for the Northwest being way warmer than its been in years in early April/May so that can affect those SEA numbers. Cursed El Nino! Nice find overall, though.

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