Leave It to Beaver was on from the late 50’s to early 60’s, a time where an 83 MPH fastball may have been useful. I have never seen the show, but from what I know/Wikipedia told me is that mischief-maker “The Beaver” found several ways to get himself into trouble. Like Beaver, Weaver occasionally does good things. For example, Weaver hasn’t allowed more than 2 walks in game this season and has been finding success in his change-up, which is holding hitters to a .170 batting average and a .277 slugging. However, that seems to be his only good pitch, as the rest of his pitch repertoire is getting hit over .333 and slugged over .580. The bad news for him is that the Houston Astros have the 7th highest slugging against changeups at .435. The Astros will punish the Angels for allowing Weaver to take mound, and may we all reap the benefits. Now, lets move on to my favorite Astros and other picks for today.
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Zack Greinke, SP: $ 11,100 – It’s that time again! Pick a RHP against the Padres, who have a 25% K rate, and a league worst .610 OPS. The Padres have two player with a wRC+ over 100 vs RHP. Those players are Melvin Upton Jr and Brett Wallace. Melvin has 38 plate appearance against Greinke, and only has a 443 OPS. Greinke has been finding success with his slider. His slider is generating 25% swing and misses, and opponents are only hitting .210 off it. Meanwhile, the Padres have .183 batting average off slider from RHP. If Zack can command the zone with his fastball, he should be able to get them chasing with his slider and make for an excellent cash play.
Danny Salazar, SP: $10,600 – Strikeouts are where the money is in DFS. And in case you missed it, the Orioles set the record for most strikeouts in a series with 52. Now the Orioles get to face Salazar, who owns a 13% swinging strike rate. 13% is good for 8th highest among qualified starters. This season, and throughout his career, Salazar has been better at home. In his career at home, opposing hitters have only managed a .288 wOBA, and he has 1.17 WHIP with a 27.5% K rate. In 3 starts at home this season, all these numbers have improved. Walks have been an issue, but at home this season he has only issued 5 walks vs his 24 K. He has averaged nearly 30 DK points at home.
Wade Miley, SP: $9,100 – Mariners and Twins are on completely opposite paths. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10, while the Twins are 2-8 and only have 4 wins on the road this season. The most K’s Miley has in game so far is 7, but now faces a team with a 27% K rate vs LHP. In his home starts this season, Miley has 17 K to 1 BB and .241 BA against. Most of Miley’s swings and misses have came from his change-up and slider. Although on a small sample size of 69, the Twins are only batting .188 off change-ups and sliders from LHP. In 2014, Miley struck out 11 Padres in 7 innings. Now, with the highest swinging strike rate of his career (10.1%), and a high likelihood of a win, let’s hope he can rack up 11 more K’s and earn us points.
Matt Moore, SP: $6,100 – Yankees have 4th worst 78 wRC+ vs LHP and Vegas is giving a slight edge to Moore and the Rays, so I’m not sure why he only has a $6,100 price tag. Sometimes it’s best not to ask questions and just take it. The Yankees have been average vs the fastball from LHP, but Moore has an above average fastball. It sits at 94 MPH, generates 10% whiffs, and a .232 batting average.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4,300 – The Big Pasta is serving up big juicy meatballs across the plate. Lucroy is hungry and has been devouring RHP with a .921 OPS. Pay up today and let the big dog eat!
Jason Castro, C: $3,100 – The first part of today’s Astros stack. He’s pretty much useless against LHP, but against RHP he has a .877 OPS and 145 wRC+.
Chris Carter, 1B: $4,300 – Despite having 13 HRs on the season, 10 of which have been at home, he has seen fairly low ownership percentages in DFS. Miller park is hitter friendly and Chris Carter loves to take advantage of that with a .719 slugging there!
Dae-Ho Lee, 1B: $2,900 – My favorite cheap 1B option. He’s a much better hitter when he starts the game as his pitch hit appearance have brought down his season numbers. If he gets the start today, feel confident putting him in your lineup against the soft throwing righty Phil Hughes.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,700 – He may be batting .190 in his last 10 games, but don’t let that scare you. This is Jose Altuve we’re talking about. All he needs to do is get on base and let his wheels do the work as Weaver is terrible at holding runners on base. He allowed 47 SB in 2014 and 2015 combined. The Angels have already allowed 27 SB this season. Part 2 of your Astros stack.
Chase d’Arnaud, 2B/3B: $3,300 – Since being called up from AAA earlier this month, he is batting .375, with a .993 OPS and .431 wOBA. He currently has higher walk rate (14.9%) than strikeout rate (10.6%), and only a 5.2% swinging strike rate. These numbers will not be maintained all season, but lets ride this hot streak out while it lasts.
Jurickson Profar, 2B/SS: $2,900 – With Odor suspended, the switch hitting prospect is back in the majors and batting lead off. What’s not to like about a cheap leadoff middle infielder?
Luis Valbuena, 3B: $3,500 – Lefty/righty matchup. .363 wOBA in may. 85% of his career HR off RHP. Part 3 of your Astros stack.
Brandon Drury, 3B/OF: $2,700 – This price seems low for a guy who is batting .302 with 7 HR in a game with an over/under total of 8.5. Tonight he gets Cesar Vargas, who has gave up all 4 of his HRs to righties and has only 8 K to 7 BB vs RHB.
Marcus Semien, SS: $3,700 – if you don’t want to add the $4,000 Correa part of your Atros stack, then save $300 and go with Semien. Lefty Matt Boyd has been recalled from AAA, who has struggled in his 62 big league innings with a 6.97 ERA . Semien owns a .298 batting average against LHP in his career.
George Springer, OF: $4,500 – Similar to Altuve, he has the potential to hit one deep and swipe a bag. Springer has been showing improvements at the plate. He has cut down his swinging strike rate down to 12.4%, previously 13.9% in 2015 and 18.6% in 2014. He has also improved his zone contact percentage 10% from his first year in the league. And in case you forgot, Weaver is on the mound! Part 4 of your Astros stack.
Nomar Mazara, OF: $4,100 – He’s moved down to the five spot in the last three games, but that hasn’t slowed down his bat. Besides his monster dong off Santiago, most of his power has came off RHP. He has a .946 OPS off righties. This second highest total game at 9.0, so Mazara has a reasonable chance to cash in some runs.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $3,900 – Lefty on Lefty… Madbum throwing… Am I crazy? Yes, slightly, but hear me out. I don’t often take into account batter vs pitcher stats, but vs Madbum he’s batting .320 with a 1.070 OPS in 54 PA. In his career at home he owns respectable .804 OPS and a .346 wOBA. Not recommended for cash games, but could be a sneaky tournament play.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is nearly a 50% chance of thunder showers in Cleveland. Keep a close eye on the weather reports closer to game time if you were planning on using Salazar. The only other game with weather issues is Milwaukee, but the retracable roof fixes those problems! Heavy wind blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field. Three of Eickoff’s seven HRs have gone to left field and the 17 mph winds may add to that total.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There is baseball in Colorado, you know the drill. SF/COL has a day high total of 10.5. The next highest game of 9 are CIN/MIL and PIT/TEX. With Thor on the bump, it’s no surprise that the LAD/NYM game has total of 7. Maeda is no slouch either! Hendricks and the Cubs are big time favorites at – 260. Hopefully the Cubs can improve upon their 2.88 run support that they have provided Hendricks to help get him the win. Vegas agrees that Greinke is a safe cash play, as Arizona are -200 favorites vs the Padres. Suggested pitchers Miley and Salazar, and their respected teams, both come in at -152 favorites.
