This was supposed to be a day filled with Clayton Kershaw against the Rockies. That was the de facto cash game play, who you paired with him was a game of “Don’t Break The Ice”. Now, with Kershaw down and out with an apparent childbirth (epidural), it’s more like a game of russian roulette picking your starters. So, let’s close up, give it a spin and in chamber one, we’ve got Jaime Garcia vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. I always like to lean towards a pitcher who’s at home, check one in the positive column for Garcia. Another positive is the Brew Crew’s strikeout rate. They currently have the second most strikeouts in all of baseball. Generally, the Brewer’s offense is a bit scary (top 10 home OPS), but get them away from Miller Park and the bats go quiet (5th worst away OPS). Jaime has been a bit all over the map this year, but his 3.54 FIP and 3.74 xFIP (compared to 4.09 ERA) suggest he’s been getting a tad unlucky. For the low price of $7,900, Jaime will be my staff anchor on a night where the options are far from safe. Here’s what else is loaded in our DraftKings six shooter tonight:
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Steven Wright, SP: $10,100 – My love for Steven Wright is well documented. I swear, he pitches every time I’m due to write, and I don’t care. I will continue to sing his name from the rooftops until everyone is on board…or until the knuckleball goes dead and he turns into RA Dickey. For now, though, his numbers are on par with Dickey’s Cy Young season. Don’t laugh, crazier things have happened. Wright hit a hiccup last time out but saved the night from being a total loss thanks to some unearned runs. The Angels come to town next and while they don’t strikeout very much (fewest in baseball), the offense is sub par and they don’t face knuckleballs every night. It should also be noted that the knuckleball really dances in humid air. With a late night thundershower expected in Beantown tonight, the humidity will be alive and well. Take the ace discount and enjoy.
Ian Kennedy, SP: $8,800 – I’ve got issues with all the top tier names tonight. Cueto is in Coors South (Arizona) tonight, and as Big Magoo just mentioned (and I agree), no. Teheran was great when he was priced at $9,000, but at $11,700, I just don’t see the upside. Fulmer’s FIP and walk rate suggest a visit from the regression fairies is on the way. Finally, deGrom has been uber boring and is facing the best team in baseball. Hence why we’re digging for values tonight. Kennedy has to be the biggest risk/reward play of the night. I always love to target the Phils and their second worst team OPS but Kennedy has been totally bipolar. He could strikeout eleven again, or he could give up eleven runs. I like Kennedy/Garcia as a nice GPP base tonight though.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $5,400 – If you want to really start dumpster diving, Eovaldi is your man. After a fantastic May, June has been a horror show for Eovaldi. Maybe July will help him cure his woes. The Padres and the NL certainly won’t hurt matters any. If you’re looking to stack a team like the Sawx and need some upside salary relief, Eovaldi is the stuff GPP dreams are made of.
Nick Hundley, C: $2,000 – Just a heads up to all you DFSers out there: I think the DK pricing on Rockies hitters may have been set as if Kershaw were pitching and it doesn’t appear to have been adjusted for Bud Norris. Nick Hundley is much better than a min price player and Bud Norris is much worse than Clayton Kershaw.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,400 – You have to love one of the best hitters in all of baseball, in his hitter-friendly home park checking in as the 9th priced first baseman. As described above, Cueto doesn’t scare me, but Goldy should scare Cueto.
Byung Ho Park, 1B: $3,100 – Park is always a guy I look to when he has the platoon advantage. Such is the case tonight against lefty, Martin Perez. Park has all or nothing game, but at this price, you’re just hoping he runs into one.
Derek Dietrich, 2B: $3,000 – I’m all about those cheap middle infielders and Dietrich fits the bill. He’s got the platoon advantage on Teheran, who I doubt keeps up his current pace, and has taken him deep in the past. Cheap out on middle infielders so you can load up where it counts.
Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $4,800 – Or, better yet, you could spend that money on one of these two faux short stops. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Machado at SS is just not fair. Machado against Wade LeBlanc is also very unfair.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: $4,300 – Our BvP special of the night! How about this for a sample size? Adrian Beltre is 15/60 with 5 HRs and 2 SBs against Ervin Santana. Couple that with the fact that Beltre is molten hot right now and I’m liking how this is shaping up for Beltre.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $3,400 – See my note in the Hundley blurb if you skipped catcher (I don’t blame you). There’s hardly a hitter hotter than CarGo right now and I highly doubt Bud Norris stymies him.
Jarrett Parker, OF: $3,900 – Shelby Miller? More like SHELLby Miller, am I right? Things don’t look to be improving for Miller. Parker is a threat to put one in the seats at any time and this match-up doesn’t get much juicier. It still seems like Parker is a bit unknown to the masses as well, so he could be a very nice under the radar play tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,400 – I just want to make sure you all remember to look all the way down here. I can’t quit Giancarlo, no matter how bad the slump, he’s still hitting bombs and I can’t bring myself to bet against him at this price. I’m on autopilot rostering him unless he’s above $4,000.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather is some kind of ugly on the east coast tonight, let’s have a look:
KC @ PHI – Chance of thunderstorms around game time, but look to be clearing out late. Late start, but hopefully it plays. Keep an eye on this one.
CHC @ NYM – Lots of storms lurking and they don’t look to be clearing until later than the Philly storms. If there’s any game with potential of a rainout, it’s this one.
LAA @ BOS – Those storms will be moving east and into Boston later in the night. A lot can change, so keep an eye out for how fast these storms are moving. If they blow in too soon, we’re hosed.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Steven Wright and the Sawx are the biggest favorite tonight, -220. Imagine that. I do think that has more to do with the impending damage the Sawx are going to put on Chacin, but still. The largest over/under can be found in that same game, 10 runs, which isn’t ideal. I admit, this makes me a little nervous for our boy Wright. Not enough for me to move off him though. Next up is the Rangers at the Twins, which features a 9.5 run total. Maybe my stacking of Twins isn’t such an insane idea. The lowest run total of the night belongs to the Cubs (Hammel) and Mets (deGrom) at 7 runs.