Pacific Northwest siiiiide! Ouch! My fingers aren’t limber enough for a PNW gang sign. Gonna have to start that Phalanges yoga I’ve been meaning to do…but hey, that’s my problem. Wanna know what else my problem is? Bad beer. I’m a beer snob, proud of it. The history of drinking bad beer started when the US government put the smack down on home brewing. You know, that whole ‘prohibition’ thing that went over so well. Take note, War on Drugs! But my point is, don’t bring your watered down swill up north here, we’re doing just fine with our micro brews, thanks. With all that said, in comes the Colorado Rockies to Safeco Field. Yeah, the Rockies have played like their stadium name this year: bland, tasteless and lacking substance. This not so perfect analogy is a great way to look at the Rockies as a whole, especially when you take them out of their friendly Coors confines and throw in a lefty starter to boot. The numbers ain’t pretty, folks. The Rockies are bottom of the wRC+ barrel against lefties on the year at 66 and the next closest team – the White Sox – ain’t even close at 75. Factor in the 23% K rate and you’ve got one good reason to start Roenis Elias today. The other? Those road stats, bro. Rockies are barely 2nd worst carrying a 79 wRC+ – just ahead of the Twins wRC+ of 78 – while K’ing 23.9% of the time. All this lines up just fine for starting Elias in the friendly confines of Safeco. Starting opposite Yohan Flande, Elias not only has a great chance for high K potential but also the win and maybe a beer shower afterwards…ok, I lied, I don’t mind Coors for once. No IPA baths needed, break out that crappy six-pack! And then finish your night with a tasty cold one when you’re done. But enough about me not so silently judging you, let’s move on. Here’s my Chipotle Ale hot takes for this Saturday DK slate…
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Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12,200 – It’s not a pretty slate and me talking about the highest priced pitcher is pretty much proof. I’m a little worried about Madison based on how well the Padres have played of late but I don’t see a lot to love behind this Bum today.
Dan Haren, SP: $7,000 – Ask me how much confidence I have in this pick…go on, ask me! Yeah, zilch. All I can say is he has a strong chance for a win and with the Phillies K’ing so much of late, he has the potential to rack those up as well. All that said, a 5 IP, 4 ER outing with 4 K doesn’t seem too far fetched to me either. Tourney play only, much like most of these arms on this slate. You may be wondering why I’m skipping over Jose Fernandez. Well, he’s only pitched a simulated game since coming off the DL. What will his pitch count be? Will he even go 5 or get a chance for the win anyway? Eh, I guess you can call him a tourney play but I’m just not feeling it. Ian Kennedy? You’re just staring at the O/U and a spacious park. Giants don’t K a lot, it’s hard to get behind Ian for that reason. Lance McCullers? Major home/road splits, bro. Noah Syndergaard? Same issue. In the end, my hands feel tied today unless I’m just punting SP2 so I’m naming the one upside name I feel not even remotely confident about and moving on with my day.
Miguel Montero, C: $3,400 – Yup, I just gave this pitching slate the nah wave. It’s ugly, wasn’t lyin’. Obviously, would love to make this Kyle Schwarber and I will if I can afford it but Montero is an excellent plan B. Jerad Eickhoff can’t strike guys out and gives up plenty of fly balls. You can’t hit a groundball homerun so I like this very much. I’m all about the Cubbies today, especially the lefties. Chris Coghlan, Anthony Rizzo, and Dexter Fowler are definitely in play here.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF: $4,300 – With Rizzo up in the nose bleed sections of the pricing range, it’s nice to see a moderately priced 1B who has been hitting well of late and gets the splits advantage. As a Mariners fan, Trumbo has disappointed up to this point in the season as he’s merely sparked a late season rally to get out of the cellar. But he hasn’t disappointed me in DFS as he’s tallied some nice numbers of late and traditionally rakes against lefties. Yohan is about as good as Sandler’s Zohan movie so consider this a reason to start Nelson Cruz as well and perhaps Kyle Seager since no one seems to be able to stop him right now. If Franklin Gutierrez is back? ….sorry, passed out from the vapors. Yeah, he’s def in play.
Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B: $3,900 – If I’m not punting 2B – and I still might, TBD – I’m looking to take advantage of lefty splits vs Williams Perez. I mean, it’s only a .383 wOBA vs LHHs for him to go with a 1.51 HR/9 and a 5.10 xFIP. You know, NO BIGS. Curtis Granderson and Kelly Johnson are intriguing options today and I’m not opposed to sprinkling your lineup with Mets as you go period, FWIW.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: $3,600 – Who is Sean Nolin? It’s not a philosophical question, I’m really asking. Beltre has finally shown his age this year after his glorious offensive binge since leaving the Mariners. Yes, that still chaps my ass. Chaps it so much I even spelled out ‘ass’ rather than using characters. Overall, Nolin and the Athletics bullpen are something to attack and exploit. I’m intrigued by Mike Napoli here as well.
Jean Segura, SS: $3,500 – No, Segura has not lived up to what he was in 2013 but he’s been better than what he was in 2014 and has been batting leadoff for the Brewers when a lefty is on the mound. Said lefty isn’t a stud lefty, he’s Jeff Locke. I’m open to picking on all things Lost-related and even semi-Lost-related.
Corey Seager, SS: $3,400 – It’s only been eight games, but Seager has been solid and gets Rubby De La Rosa. Rubby has pitched better in the second half but the Dodgers can get left-handed up and down the lineup which is no bueno for this jewel in the desert. You don’t give up 2.02 HR/9 to LHHs without a little bad luck but the xFIP against lefties is still 4.95 on the year. The Dodgers have been middling on offense of late so I’m not huge on an LAD stack but there’s merit. Consider Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez intriguing options but I’m probably looking to stack Seagers today before I stack Los Doyers.
Anthony Gose, OF: $2,900 – Before the game was rained out yesterday, Gose was set to bat lead off for the Tigers and has been hitting the ball well overall of late. With a pitch to contact guy on the mound like Cody Anderson, I don’t worry as much about Anthony’s contact problems and at this price, I’m hoping to get a contact high from the Gose that lays the golden egg. Yeah, it’s not just you, that last line made no sense.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Wetness abounds on the East Coast today as NYYvsTOR, BALvsKC, and PHIvsCHI all look like they could have some precipitation problems while Ohio looks to be struggling with mother nature as well for the CLEvsDET and CINvsSTL tilts. But I mean, what’s a dome gonna do to prevent these problems, am I right? I’m giving you the side eye Chloe, @MLB.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Remember when I said that pitching looks like icky poo-poo today? Ok, not in those exact words but Vegas tends to agree. They’ve given us only 4 games with an o/8 below 8 today. There’s a double header today so that means 75% of games today are expected to have reasonable offensive outputs. Pitching is a landmine on this slate, my friends. Unlike yesterday’s Duffy call, I don’t see many places to get cute. Speaking of cute, Dan Haren and the Cubs have a decent edge at -180 but their o/u is tied for tops today with TEXvsOAK at 9 o/u. Not even joking, I’m probably rotating through MadBum/Elias and maybe swapping in Kennedy with Elias here and there today and building lineups accordingly. An oddity for today is the CLEvsDET game which sits at 7.5 and actually has Cody Anderson with the slightest of edges over Justin Verlander. So Vegas suggests pitch to contact Cody to be an intriguing GPP option…yeah, Vegas and I ain’t friends at the moment. I don’t care how bad the El Tigre offense has been, there are certain levels even I can’t stoop to. Noah and the Mets have the heaviest advantage on the day at -200 but with an 8 o/u and Synder’s road woes, I just can’t pull the trigger in his price range.