Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, and I’m here to keep your Monday nice and green. We have a five-game main slate on FanDuel tonight with first pitch for at 7:07 PM ET. There are two other games today that DraftKings has included on their main slate while FanDuel has split them into an early slate. I’ll be covering the five games on the main slate.
It’s ACE time in the rotation for most of the 10 teams playing today and Max Scherzer is at the top of the list coming in at $10,800, the highest priced pitcher on the slate. His stats are hard to pass up, 3-0, 23 strikeouts and only 4 ER in 18 innings. Scherzer should have some solid ownership on him tonight. His opponent, the Cardinals have the lowest K% in the league (19%) are swinging a hot bat behind Nolan Arenado, who leads the league with a 237 WRC+. Play Scherzer at your own risk tonight because I won’t be. Ready to find out who I’m playing instead? Let’s get this money.
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Buehler has had a slow start to the season with 6 BBs and 7 ER in 15.2 innings. His K% currently sits at 16%, a big drop from the 26% he put up in 2021. It’s early and Buehler has the skills to dominate. We should see that K% climb along with his 26% CSW, and no better night to start than tonight against Arizona. The D-Backs have a .190 batting average and a 25.5% K rate (26th). This is the perfect spot for Buehler to get back to last year’s form. The Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the slate tonight (-195) so Walker should have a good chance to get those extra points for the W
If you’re looking to save some money on the mound tonight there are not many options, but I like Eovaldi a bit behind Buehler. He’s always been a solid strikeout guy and has shown that in his first three starts with a 29.2 K% and a 30.5 CSW%. The Blue Jays arguably have the best lineup in the league but do have some free swingers like Bichette, Chapman, Springer, and Biggio, all with a K% above 25%. Eovaldi just pitched against the same Jays last week and was pulled after 95 pitches in 4.2 innings. No QS or W for Nate but he still recorded 29 FanDuel points. The Jays are missing Teoscar Hernandez and have been batting catcher, Zack Collins fourth in the order. Even if the Jays manage three runs off him, Eovaldi has a good chance for 35+ points tonight.
I have high hopes for Smith this season in terms of home runs. Merrill Kelly has pitched extremely well so far and I think he’s due for some regression to the mean and the Dodgers lineup is the team to take him there. Smith is 6 for 11 with a HR off Kelly and is the perfect low owned piece of a Dodgers stack to get us in the green tonight.
The Astros have the best matchup today vs. Dane Dunning who has 7 BB in 13.2 innings. The Rangers have a bottom five bullpen in the league. Yuli has a three-game hit-streak, going 5 for 13 with 2 doubles. He’s yet to hit a homer and at this price, he’s a steal, but likely won’t steal a base.
Do you need some value in your lineup? Here it is. I was pumped about Gimenez last season but he failed to get out of the gate hot and ended up back in AAA. Looks like I was a year to early because Gimenez has been raking so far. He has a four-game hit-streak going with six hits, a triple, and a stolen base in that span. Cleveland has started the season as one of the best hitting teams in the league. Yes, they got mowed down by Gerrit Cole yesterday but their .342 wOBA and 128 WRC+ both stand second best so far. Jimenez is a cheap piece I want in my Cleveland stacks.
The X-Man comes in as the hottest hitting SS over the past week. He’s hitting .440 with 4 doubles and a 45% hard contact rate. Jose Berrios has skills but is an up and down pitcher so we never really know what we’re going to get, right Forrest? Well, tonight we could get the so-s0 Jose and I’m banking on Xander’s hot streak continuing in Canada.
Another hot hitter is Alex Bregman. A .444 wOBA with 2 BB and 4 RBI in his last 20 PA, Bregman is picking up the slack for injured Jose Altuve. I mentioned the matchup for Yuli, this is the same matchup vs Dunning and the bad Texas bullpen.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are great plays today but they are so good that they are playable almost any day so I’m going to tell you about Chas. Batted in the lead-off spot on Sunday and should be there again today. We need to complete our Astros stack with some outfielders and McCormick, because of his price, is one guy I want. With 13 HR in 273 ABs in 2021, Chas has some pop. I rostered him a bunch in DFS last year and I plan to do it again this season, starting tonight. Well, I played him yesterday too and it paid off!
After tweaking with his swing so many times it seems he found one that works. Lots of people were worried about all the strikeouts in spring training but not Cody. We might get some high ownership on Bellinger today because of the recency bias of the two home runs he smashed on Sunday but that’s ok. I like the Dodgers stack, but I’m cool with Cody as a one-off for his power potential. Bellinger already has two home runs off Kelly in his career so why not add to that total tonight. He has a 40% hard contact rate and a 30.8% FB/HR rate this season.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I like the Dodgers Money line vs. Arizona (-195) and Yordan Alvarez to record a hit at +110. You can bet these lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!