Dane Dunning loves cream puffs.
Dunning (P: $7,200) struggled in July against a run of tough offenses which included the Dodgers, Padres and Rays. His last start against the White Sox went well (39 DK points), and he has a 37-point outing against the Tigers. Dunning looks like a guy we can trust with the cream-puff offenses, and today he gets to munch on the Oakland A’s.
Let’s see what else looks tasty on today’s 8-game DraftKings slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m. ET:
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I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We’re mixing the sections up today as rain is going to be a big factor. It’s very likely that we lose both the Braves/Pirates and Cubs/Mets games, which would turn this 8-game slate into six.
This would boot Spencer Strider and the Braves offense, both of which are strong (and chalky) plays should this game go. We would also lose a solid pitching alternative in Kodai Senga.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Cole Ragans, P: $5,200 – Ragans is one of the big decision points of the slate. He looked terrific in his last start, tossing six shutout innings against the Mets, striking out 10. He was also strong in his previous matchup against the Rays. In that context he’s a bargain, and one that opens up a ton of bats for our DFS lineups.
I still see a rookie pitcher with good, but not elite, stuff who has shown more struggle than brilliance. There’s no way I’m using him against the Red Sox in Fenway (116 wRC+) on a slate where he’ll be highly-owned.
Spencer Strider, P: $12,800 – This blurb assumes the Braves/Pirates game plays cleanly, in which case a large chunk of the field will look to pair Ragans with this guy. Strider would have to absolutely smash to justify his price tag. He has a good enough matchup to get there, as the Pirates have just an 88 wRC+ and 24% K rate against right-handed starters, but I’ll bet on him having less than his 90th percentile outing, which he’ll need in order to bury me.
The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Gerrit Cole, P: $11,300 – The White Sox are near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching (83 wRC+). Cole’s weakness, if he has one, is left-handed power, and the White Sox have virtually none of that. Cole should roll here.
Freddy Peralta, P: $9,600 – If I can’t afford Cole, I’m fine dropping down to Freddy. The Rockies are straight-up bad away from Coors, carrying an 83 wRC+ and 27% K rate. Peralta has been more consistent than spectacular, posting 20+ DK points in four of his past five starts, but he could certainly spike a good number in this spot.
Mitch Garver, C: $3,500 – With Jonah Heim on the shelf, Garver is getting near-everyday plating time and he’s making the most of it, riding a 7-game hitting streak that includes two home runs.
Marcus Semien, 2B: $6,100 – Semien is also on a 7-game hitting streak, but he’s got three home runs in that stretch.
Ezequiel Duran, SS/OF: $3,700 – Okay, let’s sum it up: Waldichuk has been bad, the Oakland bullpen is worse, Rangers are the chalk stack and deserve to be.
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF: $2,700 – Probably leads off for the Yankees against Dylan Cease, who has been more vulnerable against left-handed hitters (.181 ISO and 23% K rate).
Christian Yelich, OF: $5,600 – Rockies starter Peter Lambert has just an 18% K rate against left-handed hitters this season, along with a high 13% BB rate and .185 ISO. Yelich is in good form of late and the Brewers stack is also firmly in play.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Justin Turner, 1B/2B: $4,600 – By not playing Ragans, I’m assuming the Red Sox get to him, in which case they’ll get deep into MLB’s second-worst bullpen. This is exactly the situation we’re looking for with our stacks and I’ll be all over this one. Don’t be afraid to include lefty hitters Rafael Devers (3B, $5,200) and/or Masataka Yoshida (OF, $4,700) as both handle southpaws quite well.
Dylan Cease, P: $8,500 – It’s okay to get a bit weird on a six-game slate. Cease got obliterated by the Rangers in his last outing, and he’s had an overall disappointing season. However, this is still a pitcher with a 32% K rate and 45% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. The Yankees offense has plenty of strikeout-prone righties, and hasn’t exactly been a world-beater. There’s a path where Cease breaks this slate, and I’ll follow it with at least one of my lineups.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There’s not a lot I like from a betting standpoint today, but if I’m forced to pick something – which I kind of am – I’ll pair the Yankees runline (-1.5) and moneyline (currently -1.70ish) and be done with it.
Good luck everyone! I’ll try and check in later with an update. In the meantime, watch the weather reports and whatever you decide to do, make contingency plans!
