Happy Friday! We’ve got an 11-game slate this evening and lots of interesting, obvious, and NOT so obvious (sneaky?) options. I only play small field tournaments so how I build my stacks are a bit different than with cash games. Fading parts of the ARI/COL is probably a bit risky but not enough for me to look to other teams that I think can exceed expectations.
If I were to stack one of Arizona or Colorado:
- With winds in from center field at 10mph, temp’s in the 50’s, and Colorado’s bats at a putrid wRC+ rating of 50 for the season (72 for the last 30 days), I won’t be stacking the Rockies on this slate. Yes, they getting better but that’s still awful. If you want part of this game, I would stack Arizona and MAYBE a Rockie or two (Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Brenton Doyle).
Who will I be looking at for my Sneaky Stack Attack? The St. Louis Cardinals:
- Dustin May has an ERA of 3.07 for 2023 but an xFIP of 4.89. He’s due some dingers coming his way and the Card’s have the bats to do just that
- St. Louis has a team K% rate of 21.6%, a wRC+ of 116, and ISO of .173. Those are big numbers and I’m expecting their big bats to come through tonight
- This game is a late-night hammer and those are my favorite!
- Oh, and I will be running this game back with a Dodger or two
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SP1 – TB: Zach Eflin $9,000 | No, I didn’t misspell Jacob deGrom. For a tournament player like myself, I just can’t pay $11,500 for him against the Yankees. This is usually a “don’t overthink it” spot but I’m not doing it against New York. Their bats are trending up again and I could see them dinging up deGrom a bit if he has an off day.
SP2 – NYM: David Peterson $7,200 | Those St. Louis bats aren’t cheap so let’s get a bit of value with Peterson.
- NOTE: The NYM/ATL game could be PPD so in that case, another value SP (and tourney pivot) is Merrill Kelly $7,300 (ARI). Yes, Arizona, and yes in Colorado. It’s sneaky and COL has a team K% of 26% so he’s a great tournament play.
C – STL: Willson Contreras $4,400| Low K% and high wRC+. Keep it coming, St. Louis!
1B – STL: Paul Goldschmidt $5,800 | He’s Paul Goldshmidt. That’s it. That’s the tweet.
2B – STL: Nolan Gorman $4,200 | The Card with the most HR’s & RBI’s (yes, RBI’s, not RBI. Don’t @ me!)
3B – ARI Emmanuel Rivera $2,600 | A bit of ARI/COL value
OF – ARI Corbin Carroll $5,300 | He’s on a roll: wRC+ 151 and 10 SB and in COL today. Classic “Don’t Overthink It” spot
Stacks I like not named STL or ARI:
- MIL, LAA, LAD, TB
- BOS – Sneaky? Could be against Shane Bieber: 18.2 K% vs BOS
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Several high-risk spots today: KC/MIN, BAL/DET, ATL/NYM, and PIT/WAS (as I look out my window in Arlington, VA, I’m assuming this game doesn’t happen)
Doing Lines In Vegas
LAA/MIL o9 -115
STL/LAD o8.5 -120