Jasson Dominguez has started his Major League career with a bang, smacking two homers and a double over his first four games.
His one issue has been his strikeouts, but I like his chances to make contact against Matt Manning, who has struck out just 11% of the left-handed bats he’s faced this season.
Batting third at just $3,100, the Yankee outfielder will be a fixture in my DraftKings lineups. Let’s see what else we can pin down for tonight’s 6-game Main Slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m ET:
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The Core:
Spencer Strider, P: $12,300 – This slate is pretty straightforward as far as optimal pitching goes. Strider is crazy expensive today, but nobody comes close to his combination of safety and ceiling. Strider has racked up nine or more strikeouts in 11 of his past 13 games.
Clarke Schmidt, P: $7,100 – Streamonator loves this matchup and it’s easy to see why. Schmidt is too cheap here. He’s done a good job of suppressing walks (6%) and runs (4.12 xFIP) this season. The Tigers have a high 25% K rate and just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The obvious SP2 to go along with the obvious stack, which is…
Pete Alonso, 1B: $4,700 – and the Mets stack, which carries a 5.44 implied run total into a matchup with Joan Adon and the Nationals. Alonso has three bombs in his last two games.
Ronny Mauricio, 2B/SS: $3,100 – Amazingly, it’s possible to full stack the cheaper Mets with Strider and any pitcher you choose. Mauricio is a premier prospect who managed an .867 OPS in Triple-A along with 23 HR and 24 SB.
DJ Stewart, OF: $2,900 – Another Met, Stewart went 0-4 with three strikeouts last night but had four home runs over his three games prior.
MJ Melendez, OF: $3,500 – Touki Toussaint’s 30% K rate versus right handed hitters has me off the Royals as a stack, but Toussaint has managed only a 16% K rate against lefties. Enter Melendez, with home runs in two of his last four, as a one-off.
The Fades:
Matt Manning, P: $6,700 – Manning and Schmidt faced off last week, and it went Manning’s way, as he rode his excellent slider to 19 DraftKings points. He’s actually riding a streak of four straight 15+ point performances. The issue with Manning is that he isn’t missing many bats, and his 5.36 xFIP suggests there may be some smoke and mirrors behind his success (3.62 ERA).
The Pivots:
Max Scherzer, P: $11,000 or Justin Verlander, P: $10,200 – Tonight we’re treated to a premier pitching matchup thanks to the recent Mets fallout.
Neither has a good matchup but both should be fired up for this one. I’ll have a few lineups that combine Strider with one of these guys and a Mets stack. I’ll also have a few in which I pair one of these two with Schmidt, as both have the ability to outscore Strider on a single night.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $4,500 – and the Yankees. Price-considered, they’re my second-favorite stack. As I mentioned, Manning shut them down last time out, but he did so with just four strikeouts. If they manage to chase Manning out they’ll get into a terrible Tigers’ bullpen. Torres has just a 14% K rate against right-handed pitching and seven extra base hits over his last six games.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B: $4,700 – another offense facing a decent starter backed by a poor bullpen, the Orioles are super-sneaky tonight. Mountcastle, with his .344 ISO and .459 wOBA against left-handed pitching, makes for a great tournament one-off as well.
Mitch Garver, C: $4,200 – and other one-offs from the Astros/Rangers game. While the field might be hesitant to use Scherzer and Verlander, they’ll also shy away from targeting them. Both of these guys can be had for home runs, and both of these lineups have power guys up and down.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No risk of rain on the Main Slate.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’ll take the Padres, who are slight home underdogs, against the Phillies. Padres starter, Michael Wacha, has been in good form lately.
I like the Orioles tonight. They’re a moderate favorite on the moneyline, but I think they have the better starter, far better bullpen and much better lineup (absent Ohtani).
