I was having an identity crisis, so I went to talk to my therapist. I told him that one day I felt like a teepee and the next day I felt like a wigwam. I said I don’t know which one is really me. I go back and forth–teepee, wigwam, teepee, wigwam. The psychiatrist finally told me he knew what my issue was: I’m just too tense.
Speaking of identity issues, that made-up story with a punny punchline leads me to our guy Luis Garcia (DK: $7,400). No, not that one–he’s an infielder in the Philadelphia minor league system. No, not that one, either–he’s an infielder currently smoking AAA pitching in another attempt to convince the Nationals to sit down whatever craptacular Escobar or Hernandez they’re trotting out to the middle of the diamond each day and give him another chance. The Luis Garcia we’re looking at today is the pitcher in Houston with the rock-a-bye-baby windup that is looking to take advantage of some awfully sleepy Detroit Tiger bats.
Garcia currently sports a meh ERA of 4,15, but his WHIP is sub-1.00. What about his pitches? I’m glad you asked, Italicized Alter Ego. Garcia’s 94 mph fastball plays decently enough, with him throwing it nearly 57% of the time and it gets a 25% CSW% and opponents only hit .261 against it so far. But look under the hood at two lesser-thrown pitches–his curve and changeup. He throws them a combined 12% of the time, but they return a 30% CSW% (the change) and a whopping 55% CSW% (the curve). Is he a small pitch-mix change away from really going to work on the league? Even if he doesn’t, I’m willing to bet on Garcia vs. Detroit and its 26th-ranked .599 OPS vs RHPs. You could go a little more chalky with Cole, Scherzer or Darvish, but why not save some money here with the guy Streamonator likes the same as Logan Gilbert and more than Shane Bieber, Cy Gausman, Nathan Eovaldi, Sandy Alcantara, and everybody else not mentioned already?
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Gerrit Cole, SP: DK $9,700 – Streamonator’s top choice, as he’s got the highest win percentage of any of the starters, and the highest projected Ks today. He’s still just the fourth-priciest pitcher on DraftKings, so he’s chalky *and* reasonably cheap.
Jared Walsh, C/1B: $3,700 – When I’m looking for reasonably-priced 1B who have homered in back-to-back days and collected 8 RBI in that time, I go to Jared. A diamond isn’t the hardest thing in the stadium when Walsh steps in the batter’s box, looks at the mound, and sees Joan Adon and his almost 20% career HR/FB%.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: DK $5,000- Hittertron loves Albies, even though he’s going against breakout LHP Eric Lauer today. But the key to the computer’s love may be the fact that Lauer is a lefty. In his career, Albies hits almost 100 points higher against lefties and has an OPS almost 200 points higher. Lauer may be having a great year, but I haven’t seen an Ozzie this good with a bat since that Black Sabbath concert in 1982.
Rafael Devers, 3B: DK $5,400 – Devers is the 6th ranked hitter according to Hittertron, and he’s facing Vince Velasquez. While Devers is 2nd in MLB in HC% at 44%, Vince Vasquez is *checks notes* Vince Velasquez. This is the kind of analysis you come to Razzball for.
Bo Bichette, SS: DK $4,500 – Bichette has 11 hits in his last six games and is atop arguably the best offense in baseball. His price hasn’t caught up with him yet, so take the discount and enjoy the hot streak.
Kyle Tucker, OF: DK $4,400 – Hittertron has Tucker 13th overall, and DraftKings has Tucker as the 28th rated OF. Take advantage of the DFS Discount as Tucker doesn’t look too risky against Briske.
Ronald Acuna Jr, OF: $5,500 – Not that you ever need to find a reason to play Tildaddy, but Hittertron has him ranked 2nd overall today. If you’re looking for something that resembles analysis, Lauer’s most-thrown pitch is his four-seamer, and Acuna’s career slugging percentage vs four seamers is over .600. Lauer’s second most-thrown pitch is his slider, and last year Acuna slugged .775 in 63 PAs vs. sliders.
Michael Brantley, OF: DK $3,900 – Looking to get in on the Houston vs. Beau Briske action without paying top dollar for Yordan? Look at Michael Brantley, who is doing Michael Brantley things like hitting for a high average, not striking out, having the 32nd best Hard Contact % in baseball, and being 9th in Ideal Plate Appearance %. I’m an English teacher, not a mathematician, so I’m not going to try to break down the formula for you…but Brantley being 9th there is good.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Weather could factor into some games today, as the KC @ BAL tilt has an 80% chance of rain, while the TX @ NYY game has a 75% chance of rain. Be careful on the Cole pick above, as you could get washed out.
Winds could be a factor at the LAD @ CHC game, with 15 mph winds blowing in from all fields. KC @ BAL could see 14 mph wind blowing in from RF, making the only playable dimension for hitters in that park a little less playable. On the flipside, hitters in the MIL @ ATL and STL @ SFG slates could enjoy a little extra oomph as 10+ mph winds will be blowing out in those parks.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We’re going to take the under of 8 runs in the COL @ ARZ game. Both pitchers (Merrill Kelly and Chad Kuhl have had terrific seasons so far, and both offenses are kind of impotent in their own way (Arizona in general, and Colorado on the road).