Welcome back to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, and I’m here to keep your Monday nice and green. We have an 11-game main slate on FanDuel tonight with first pitch set for 7:05 PM ET in Baltimore. We have all new series starting today including another round of Coors Field and a fun matchup between Mad Bum and the Dodgers. Will we see a new t-shirt made after this one? I sure hope so. Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
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I do like Mikolas and Syndergaard a bit tonight but the strikeout ceiling for Freddy Peralta is looking pretty good. Much to my surprise, the Braves have the highest K% in the majors at 25.5%. Peralta has a 30.6% K rate and a 31.9% CSW, both top 25 in the majors. My one concern is the short leash on Freddy as 5.2 innings isn’t going to get us the extra QS points on FanDuel. He’s only pitched 6 innings one time in his five starts. Even if he doesn’t pitch deep in the game he should still rack up 7-10 Ks before he exits.
Severino is my favorite option today and likely will be my highest owned pitcher if I’m entering multiple lineups (which I usually do). The Orioles have some good young pieces that I have on my season-long team but those guys are hurt now. Mountcastle is on the IL, Austin Hayes is out for a few more days and Jorge Mateo got hurt in Sunday’s game. I’m going to continue to pick on this lineup for the coming days. The O’s have a 24% K rate on the season. With the exception of Trey Mancini and Cedric Mullins, everyone in today’s lineup is batting below .240. Severino faced the Orioles a few weeks ago and finished with a line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5K. That game was in Yankee Stadium. The game tonight is in Baltimore which has really limited hitters this season with the new park dimensions. Severino had 8K in his last outing vs. Toronto. I think we’ll see big things from Luis tonight.
If you’re looking for value tonight look no further than Yusei Kikuchi. He is coming off back-to-back starts vs the Yankees where he averaged a 33% K rate with a 35% CSW, both elite numbers. He’s only made it to five innings in three of his six starts so getting a QS on FanDuel is in question but if he can mimic those strikeout numbers and get the W, we will get solid value at this price. Seattle has a 26.6% K rate and the worst ISO in the majors over the past week.
Catchers are pretty awful this year, if you’re playing season long you’re lucky to have one who’s batting above the Mendoza line, that’s .200. Joey Bart is one of those guys hitting a mere .194. So why is he on this list? Well, surprisingly Bart has a .210 ISO and a 124 wRC+ on the season which are both top-five for catchers. Tonight he gets the friendly hitting atmosphere of Coors Field and Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela gave up 5 ER on 7 hits vs. the Giants in his last outing and that was in San Francisco. Bart is cheap enough to be in our Giants stack, and we will have a Giants stack tonight.
As much as I want another “Go Get it out of the Water” t-shirt, Goldy is higher on my rankings than Max Muncy tonight. His price is expensive and we need to watch for the weather in New York but I just can’t ignore the tear Goldy is on. He has a .404 wOBA and a .197 ISO on the season and over the past week, he has a .471 OBP. Trevor Williams, who Goldy is batting .318 against, is not the guy to slow him today.
Arrrrgh! Wade Miley better hide his gold tonight because the Pirates are about to ransack his ship. You can pretend you didn’t read that if you want. Anyway, if we are stacking Giants tonight we are going to have to pair them with some value and Chavis gives us that. Wade Miley has only thrown three innings so far, but historically, he’s a dumpster fire. Chavis has a .250 ISO and is hitting .344 vs LHP this season. The Pirates could be a sneaky stack and Chavis in the clean-up spot is ideal for us.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $3,900
Our second highest priced 3B on the slate is Rafael Devers. He’s been smoking the ball with a 58.8% hard contact rate over his last 23 plate appearances, that’s best in the majors. He’s got a .326 average with a .225 ISO on the season, both top-10 in the show. I mean, he’s an elite 3B and if my Sox could actually start winning some ball games, he could be in the running for MVP. Alas, they suck right now and have the worst record in the AL East. That means nothing for us though. This is DFS and we just need them to score some runs tonight. Luckily we have Jake Odorizzi on the mound for Houston. On the surface, Jake’s numbers are solid, 3.37 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP but his K% (15.6%) and BB% (10.1%) are not good. His xERA is an entire point higher and I think the Sox get to him today behind Devers’ big bat.
Shortstop is our deepest position today with a number of pricey, but good options. If Thairo Estrada is in the lineup for the Giants, I’ll play him too. However, Brandon Crawford is my favorite option vs. Antonio Senzatela. We already discussed the game environment in Colorado. Crawford doesn’t have great numbers vs. Antonio but in his last four games in Coors, he has three home runs. I like including a bottom of the order guy in my stacks and if he’s hitting sixth or seventh that’s ok in my book.
The outfield for the Giants is relatively cheap for Coors Field and I don’t mind playing two or all three starters if they fit. Joc Pederson is in an ideal spot to smash a few homers but my favorite play is Yaz. He’s slightly cheaper and will garner less ownership than Joc. Over the past week, Yaz has been unlucky at the plate hitting just 3-for-20 but he has 6 BB and a 50% hard contact rate. The hits are coming and we might see one in the way of a dinger tonight.
Toronto is going to get overlooked tonight. This price for Teoscar is too cheap and his ownership projection is coming in below 5% right now. Chris Flexen is a decent young pitcher who has shown upside but his 15% K rate isn’t going to cut it against one of the best lineups in the majors. He had two good starts vs. Toronto in 2021 but this season he’s been meh. Blue Jays could win us a GPP tonight and Teoscar is a cornerstone in that stack.
Kyle Bradish surprised most of us last week throwing an 11-strikeout gem vs. the Cardinals. People will be off the hottest hitting team in the majors because of this and the fact that the game is in Baltimore. However, Stanton is crushing the ball right now and hits homers to all fields. With a .350 ISO and .345 average on the season Giancarlo is making great contact. He’s cheaper than Judge and if I want a one-off, Stanton is the guy for me tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I like the LA Angels run-line (-1.5) at +120 odds.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!