Tuesday May 7th offers us a simple 8 game slate. Let’s dive right into some important stats to see what our choices are for tonight:
Pitchers’ K/BB ratios are starting to normalize around their season long projections. The better ratios belong to Shota Imanaga (24/6) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (26/6), but they are both priced up for this slate and facing opposing teams with low K rates. Coming down the pricing scale we find Bailey Ober with a solid 23/5 projection facing a SEA team that is still struggling with Ks (26% on the road). Jose Butto is one of the few pitchers who is significantly outperforming his K projection (27% to 20%) which indicates that he may retain some of these K% gains. Butto is facing an STL team that lacks a potent leadoff bat and a capable #3 hitter.
The best offensive production lately belongs to the MIN, LAD and NYY teams. MIN will face Emerson Hancock, one of several very average pitchers on today’s slate. LAD will help to lower Edward Cabrera’s current 35% K rate which is projected to settle at 24% as the season wears on. The NYY face Verlander who defies projections with his ability to limit offense in general. Meanwhile, HOU strikes out at a league low rate (17% as a team) and will face a high K and high BB pitcher in Luis Gil. What will give way in that matchup? NYM are facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Miles Mikolas and the game in Kansas City features two pitchers who have been significantly outperforming their projected Sieras.
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Bailey Ober, SP: $7,600 – Not many DFS players will overthink this spot for Ober. He displays great control which should keep the bases clear and have him pitching deep into the game despite his low pitch count totals so far. SEA will only help to increase his K count and drive up his DFS score.
Yoshinabu Yamamoto, SP: $10,100 – I will be looking to find a riskier SP to play, but Yamamoto stands out as the best data driven play. His K/BB ratio sits at 30/5 and is being projected for the rest of the season to be 26/6. Teams like MIA (19% K on the road) should challenge Yamamoto to rack up Ks, but they should not pose much of a challenge otherwise.
Will Smith, C: $5,000 – Will Smith has only put together 9 multi hit games so far this year out of 31. 4 of these were 4 hit games. Smith has that ability to really explode as a C for a “had to have it” game at his position. I know he will put together good at bats vs. a pitcher he will need to be patient with. I expect the Dodgers to “handle” Edward Cabrera tonight.
Tyler Black, 1B: $2,900 – Black is priced like the rookie that he is, but he also brings some semblance of a floor to this spot. He has been hitting in the 3 spot in the order and he can steal bases once he gets on. Black may struggle to find his barrels right away, but facing Seth Lugo should not be considered a tough spot and if MIL can put up some runs, Black should be in the middle of it.
Nico Hoerner, 2B: $4,100 – There are a lot of capable 2B on today’s slate, but Hoerner is the best blend of price, talent, matchup, and environment for me. He avoids Ks and has been putting the ball in play a lot. His statcast data is getting better and his Babip is correcting a bit. He has even stolen 3 bases in May.
Brett Baty, 3B: $2,900 – Baty has kept his K rate average and has increased his walk rate, which has also coincided with a slight rise in barrel rate. There is a lot to suggest Baty is getting a better grasp on the major league level. He is also facing Mikolas.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $4,800 – The entire Mets team gets to face off against Mikolas, but players like Lindor are well suited to take advantage of the below average K rate. Lindor keeps the ball in the air which will be helpful in finding holes vs. Mikolas.
Brandon Nimmo, OF: $4,500 – Nimmo is walking as much as he strikes out right now and he is having good real results on his solid statcast results. He still is in for some nice regression going forward. I can see him continue this nice little tear.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $6,500 – How can you put anyone else in this spot? Ohtani is leaps and bounds more valuable than any other player you can roster in DFS right now. He might get shut out on any given night, but there is no reason to avoid playing him if you have the salary. I also like Kyle Tucker at the upper price ranges tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather is warming up across the country and places like Atlanta, Kansas City, Chicago and St Louis should have decent hitting weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Many of the Vegas lines for today have decreased by a half a point. They are likely higher because of the warming weather and I would speculate they got bet down because of the general lack of scoring in MLB this season. One game has increased – SEA at MIN – which is significant, but I’m not sure how actionable it is for DFS.
