Legit, nothing happened for about five weeks since the end of the season. Literally. I went into such a vegetative state, a farmer, in overalls, walked by me, poked my eye and said, “This spud won’t be ready for a few more weeks.” Then I thought about how much a farmer is like a pimp. You don’t see them much, except when with their hoes. They work rain and shine and they hate the movie, Food, Inc. Okay, maybe they’re not that similar. Then I went back into my vegetative state. During the offseason, I’m like a landlocked Delaware. Any hoo! We have some offseason moves to speak on — Choir at black church, “Speak!” Dee Gordon was traded to the Mariners because Jerry Dipoto got a call from his mother that went like this, “How many titles did Theo Epstein have by the time he was your age?” Jerry Dipoto put down the phone, turned to a mirror and yelled, “You’re better than this!” The Mariners have tried this whole center field SAGNOF gambit before: Jarrod Dyson, Chone Figgins. All a play to get back to the days of wine and roses and Ichiros? Maybe. Trading for a guy turning 30 in April who relies on his legs seems to be a meh move — mehve? — but we’re here for the fantasy. Last year, Gordon stole a league-high 60 bags, though Hamilton had an award-winning musical. Gordon’s line drive rate was up year over year, but he did have a PEDs suspension, so not much to learn there. His batted ball profile is eerily similar for the last few years, and I see no reason why anything would change in 2018. He’s going to be playing center field now, which should make for some interesting relay throws involving the entire outfield, but that won’t affect Gordon’s hitting. For 2018, I’l give him the projections 108/2/36/.292/54 in 633 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2018 fantasy baseball:
Ryon Healy – Traded to the Mariners as they prepare Marvin Gaye puns for their signing of Ohtani. Singing totally offkey, “And when I get that feeling…I want Shohei and Healy! Shohei and Healy, baby, is good for me.” I was strongly considering writing a Ryon Healy sleeper post, but consider this here is that <–excellent grammar! Last year, Healy hit 25 homers an average of 411.1 feet. That’s 15th best in the majors. Average home run distance doesn’t move the pants compass due north, but when I’m thinking about someone going to now play their home games in Safeco, it’s a solid indication. Not that surprising he had some giddy in up-jump-the-boogies because he was playing half his games in the placenta of the Grand Canyon called the Oakland Coliseum. Something that is odd, and I’m going to write it off as an anomaly, but the Coliseum was a positive for offense last year (Safeco was still not good, per usual). Long story made longer, I think the move for Healy is a push. His 15.1 HR/FB% looks repeatable, and his fly ball rate. All his peripherals actually look repeatable, and he hit 25 HRs in 149 games last year, after hitting 13 HRs in 2015 in almost exactly half the number of games. Doode’s a machine. Unfortch, it’s not a 45-homer machine, but more like a cheap Kyle Seager machine. That’s worth drafting though, as long as he gets out of his current projected nine-hole. For 2018, I’ll give him the projections of 61/24/72/.261/1 in 471 ABs.
Hisashi Iwakuma – Signed a minor league contract with the Mariners. Not saying that the M’s signed him to act as a potential translator for Shohei Ohtani, but I’m not saying they didn’t either.
Brad Boxberger – Traded to the Diamondbacks. Think this might be our first new closer signing, without the hoopla. The assumption right now is that Archie Bradley is the closer, but making an assumption makes an ass out of a lil’ sumption-sumption. Diamondbacks had a lot of success using Bradley for multiple innings earlier in the game than the ninth. Mean’s while, Boxberger had a 3.38 ERA with a 12.3 K/9 in 29 1/3 IP last year and was an All-Star closer in previous seasons. I’m loving Boxberger right now, but it’s early to say he’s definitely the closer. For now, I’ll give him the projections of 3-2/3.08/1.12/79 with 22 saves in 64 IP, but subject to change if the Diamondbacks say Bradley or Boxberger are the closer.
Jim Johnson – Traded to the Angels for Justin Kelly. Know how we know The Sciosciapath is a Sciosciapath? Because he goes out of his way to cause harm to himself. Jim Johnson is a piece your team acquires when you have a death wish. Or you just want to see three-run leads in the 7th inning evaporate. I’m not saying a guy like Boxberger could’ve been had, but…Well, yes, I’m saying exactly that!
Yusmeiro Petit – Signed with the A’s. Oddly enough, Yusmeiro Petit is French for “Your league may need a little parity.”
Miles Mikolas – Signed with the Cardinals after having a 2.18 ERA with an 8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 424 2/3 IP in Japan. When I heard this, I tweeted out something obnoxious like, “But what’s his speed score?!” Ya know, cause people are saying Ohtani has an 80 speed. What I’m also saying is if Ohtani is super overrated, Mikolas might actually be a bargain. If only he could also hit 30 HRs! Riiiiiiiight. Yes, seven I’s. The verdict, as they say, is still out on Mikolas, but I’ve seen him compared favorably to starters like Maeda, Hendricks and teammate, Wacha. Plus, it’s the Cardinals, they make mountains out of anything that takes the hill. For safety’s sake, I’ll put him around a 7.2 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9 which is 2013 Jose Quintana, a 3.51 ERA/3.86 xFIP guy. I see now why Mikolas is Greek for “Me likey.” For 2018, I’ll give him 11-4/3.64/1.23/115 in 144 IP.
Tyler Chatwood – Signed with the Cubs. As soon as he signed, I heard superlatives like, “Best signing of the offseason,” “Love this signing,” and “Harry Caray loves this move, and I know this because I’m drinking a beer in a lawn chair next to his grave,” and other nonsense. The Cubs hype is real, yo. Chatwood did have solid road splits (3.49 ERA in 77 1/3 road innings), but, of course, he did. He was just happy to be the hell out of Coors! He still had a 4.7 BB/9 in road games, and same overall. I’m gonna like him in NL-Only leagues, but he’s a streamer elsewhere. For 2018, I’ll give him 9-10/4.19/1.39/113 in 152 IP.
Aledmys Diaz – Traded to the Blue Jays for J.B. Woodman, who sounds like a closed captioning gone wrong on Seinfeld. Cardinals, apparently, didn’t love the idea of going back to the disappointing Aledmys with Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong emerging in the middle of the infield for the deadly DeWong combo. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have no problem getting worse. Diaz will likely back up Tulo and Devon Travis, which means he could see anywhere from 100 ABs to 450 ABs. I’ll project him for 47/8/40/.266/3 in 361 ABs.
Welington Castillo – Signed with the White Sox, where he will (ington) take over catcher duties and I said duties and now I’m laughing. Screw you, ‘duties’ word, you are too funny. As of now, Boeuf Welington will be batting fifth behind Avisail and Abreu, but that could change with offseason moves. Either way, I don’t see Castillo’s value getting a dramatic boon. Hehe, boon sounds like boobs and poon combined. Nice boon! And now I’m arrested. For 2018, I’ll give him the projections 56/21/62/.241 in 407 ABs.
Mike Minor – Signed with the Rangers. This is an interesting move that the Rangers will surely screw up, and don’t call me Shirley. Not sure where Minor will slate in, bullpen or rotation, so gonna hold off for now projecting him.
Doug Fister – Signed with the Rangers after passing a physical. What does a physical for Fister look like? Is there a speculum involved? Is he the speculum? If you don’t know what a speculum is, do not under any circumstances Google it. It is horrifying. You’re Googling it now that I said don’t Google it, aren’t you? *shakes head disapprovingly* You’re a good kid, but you’ll never learn.
Grey,
Minor comment: With Segura and now Gordon, seems like Healy is stuck with 7-9 in BO? Outside of an injury or two, do you see any other scenario?
He could be up to 5th or 6th if he performs well and Seager or Haniger struggle again, but he could also be out of the lineup on certain days if the M’s get Ohtani…
You think D.Gordon has 1 more good year left before his speed falls off a cliff?
Yup
Hay grey i read here on razzball once (dont know who wrote it) that Pitchers who went deep in the playoffs and pitched many innings are much worse the next year (i think there were some examples mentioned). Do you believe in this theory ?
Therefore im thinking about selling darvish in my dynasty league. He wasnt great last year is 31 and has pitched in the playoffs. Coupled with his injury history i think it could be the right time.
What do you think about this ? and what would be players (pitchers) you target for him ?
I do believe too many IP is not a good thing for a pitcher — I don’t know who he and him are…
@Grey: I was talking about Yu Darvish,SP
(wrote it in the text :D )
BTW: GReat stuff keep it up :)
My bad, I missed that…. I think selling Dravish could work, depending what you can get… I think he is better than what we saw of him in the playoffs tho… Prolly still a top 30 SP
I started watching Too Funny to Fail on Hulu. Pretty good so far
I watched it and enjoyed it, I love Robert Smigel… Triumph is one of my favorites… Speaking of which, Triumph going to Trump rallies on Hulu is awesome…
@Grey: how have I missed that? Triumph is the best. I have the best of Triumph DVD…Oh Teshy!
Did you watch Dana Carvey show back in the day. Watching this I remember some of these bits. They should have gone to HBO
Should’ve been on HBO, no doubt…. But you get the sense Dana is really an impressionist vs. a comedian/joke writer…
@Grey: I think we always knew he was an impressionist, a very very very good one, and not to knock that at all. There is a place for that. I know people who hate him but I always disagreed. He was a monster on SNL and I never hated on that.
Yeah, agreed, I like him a lot… I mean, Hartman was an impressionist and he was amazing… But you can see why Carvey disappeared too… Hard to put him in a sitcom or something…
@Grey: Impressionist specialists dont usually make good comics. Not to be confused with comics who work in impressions. Frank Caliedo is a great impressionist but his stand up is okay. Now Jay Mohr is a solid stand up performer that’s done some really good impressions, but isnt in the Carvey or Caliendo class. I hope that makes sense
Think of Kevin Pollack, and I know he did stand up but I don’t remember it being funny… Spacey supposedly did stand up, but he was all impressions… well and child grabbing…
@Grey: ooh good call on Pollack. I can’t believe these Hollywood guys arent going the politician route and make false equivalencies or drumming up old news (Bill Clinton) to make them seem less bad. Where is the “hey I can’t be worse than Bob Crane ” drops?
Bob Crane! How did Franken not work him into his speech?
The old Bob Crane Card. How has no one pulled this. Damn, now I want to watch auto focus again
Member Greg Kinnear? What happened to him?
Thanks Grey!
Great read.
Where do you think Donaldson lands and is he a top 30 keeper next year?
If Jays don’t pay for him, I’m not sure they should field a team… He’s not a top 30 keeper for me…
10 team NL only roto –
Trade A. Wood, get C. Knebel?
Nah
Chatwood signing on the excitement meter falls somewhere between the reboot of Full House and Andre Ethier announcing he’s not retiring. There is one thing to judge a team based on how well their TALENTED pitchers perform (Arrieta, Hendricks) and how the others (Butler, Montgomery) have performed. The idiots who labeled the Cubs a good spot because of recent success are looking kinda dumb because you know, winning the World Series doesn’t make you good at handling pitchers. That’s like saying the Giants is a good landing spot for hitters because nobody’s got a few hits in the playoffs. The Cubs can prove otherwise but we’re going to need to see it before we believe it.
Yeah, Chatwood has a major walk problem. I don’t mind him in super deep leagues, but you’re owning anyone in those leagues, so he’s still kinda whatever… The playoffs can really hurt a pitching staff, but Arrieta was showing warning signs even before the run…
@Grey: dude you really hate Arrieta. I’ll be honest and maybe this is the Jew in me but I want him to do well to give you misery. Can I get an Oy Vey over here?!?!?!….when he doesn’t suck
He prolly will be decent, and not as bad as Steamer’s projections for him (something like 4.15 ERA)… Oy vey!
@Grey: oy Vey! Steamer shouldn’t even be doing it until he signs. Always hated that. BTW, I love roster resource. Ohtani is already added to the Angels. Not slackers over there and the site I always tell people to use in Spring for staying up to date,
Yeah, Roster Resource is great, but they really need to move away from Good docs…
Angels get Ohtani. Where does he play in fantasy.
Where does he play in fantasy? What do you mean?
@Grey: pitcher/ batter? Can he be both on ESPN/YAHOO etc.
If they make it happen for him does that mean we can batty call Bumgarner?
My guess is they’ll make two players, one hitter, one pitcher…
@Grey: or possibly dual OF/SP, but you can only accrue hitting or pitching stats depending on where you play him for the day/week
Yeah, depends on how sites handle him…
Lots of “if’s.”
But…..
….if I play in a Daily League…..
……and that league’s rules/site will let me move him in and out of the lineup as a hitter OR pitcher, depending on the day (assuming that NO site will be able to give him any offensive stats on days he pitches, if he DHs also)……
1st round pick? 2nd? Am I making too much of a player that could possibly contribute in 8 categories (not saves and likely not AVG)? Is this too many “if’s” to predict anything?
Lots of ifs, but if he’s both hitter and pitcher, it boosts his value into top 30 to 40 overall…
Who is the better keeper in OBP – Conforto or Sano? How close is it?
Sano
@Grey: Do you mind explaining the lack of love for Conforto? I just feel as though his stats last year were pretty good when he was healthy. Is health the big concern? And where are these guys at for you? Top 40-60? Thanks
I don’t dislike Conforto at all, Sano is an easy 40+ homer guy tho
@Grey: Gotcha, my mistake. Sano over a guy like Schoop then?
Pretty close, still figuring out my ranks…
@Grey: Sano and Rendon for Donaldson
Sano side? OBP/SLG Keeper
Sano side
@Grey: Yes, but their HR rate was nearly identical last year. Was that a false high for Conforto?
Feels a bit false if we’re thinking Conforto is a 40-homer guy…
How much does Ohtani to LAA help Upton’s value? Is he top 30?
He was already around top 50, so maybe a jump of five to ten spots
I think the most pressing question is: How badly will the Sociapath mismanage Ohtani? Shohei clearly doesn’t read your columns.
@The Krukker: *Sciosciapath
HA, exactly
Already working on some Portmanteaus for Ohtani on the Angels.
The amazingly not gay duo…..TrOht?
If the Sciosciopath uses him well does he become the Shoehiopath?
Shoho Ohtagato Mr. Maldonado (he’s thanking his new catcher when he calls a good game)
Im awful at this…..
Shoho Ohtagato Mr. Maldonado! Haha!
Grey,
I’ve been looking at Yelich a little bit this afternoon. He’s always been a bit boring. Was looiking at his BABIP/avg and it was 20 points below his norm last year. So hes at 380-390 in OBP if he bounces back a bit there. SLG is pretty awful at 440 but he was at 485 in 2016, though that was an outlier for him.
Think there is some promise for 2018? Think 375/475 in OBP/SLG with 20 SB is realistic?
Would you put him in the same rough overall rank as a guy like Schoop?
Thanks
If you watch him, you’ll see a guy who isn’t particularly fast or strong… so he’s capable of 20/20 but it would be his ceiling…
@Grey: Gotcha. Good to know. Appreciate the input
No problem
Landlocked Delaware!
My new favorite!
@Grey: I guess Ohtani just wants to meet the Real Housewives. 80 grade reality TV habit.
HA! Honestly, I think he was bamboozled by the LA in the Angels name… He has no idea…
@Grey: Hahaha, he’s going to show up and be like “How far to the Hollywood?”
You see the Cardinals had a deal in place with the Marlins and Stanton blocks it? I wonder if this list of 4 is actually legit, or some spin in the aftermath of a rejected deal?
@Ralph Lifshitz: I feel a bit jerked around by Stanton (settle down, Grey- not like that). I mean if he had 4 teams in mind why couldn’t he have just said those 4 a month ago and we could have had it over with by now. It’s not like he owes us and he can do whatever he wants, but enough of the drama already.
It’s a $95?! Uber ride?! What have I done?!
Didn’t see that on Giancarlo, but this whole blocking to the Cards is crazy… I love him, obviously, but does he not want to win?
@Grey: Oh no he wants to win, the four teams are Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs. He wants a top 4 club as they say across the pond.
I’d put Cards in that group, they always seem to make hay, as someone says, not sure who
@Grey: Sure, so are the Giants and the Red Sox.
Wait, Giants aren’t contenders
@Grey: to address you and the comment above. I find it absurd that he has to be pressured into making this deal right now. Jeter is a total fucktard. When he bought the Marlins it didnt come with a Stanton must be traded in the first 6 months or the deal is off clause. I say let him take his sweet time and end up in a club where he a) wants to be and b) doesnt resent him and that contract.
Well, I don’t want Stanton to be traded, per se, don’t care either way really, but to not go to the Cards seems odd, it’s a great city to play baseball in… They love their Cards… With that said, why the eff does Jeter have to sell everyone again? I don’t understand this.
@Grey: I don’t either. My guess is he wants a cheap controllable roster.
It’s madness the way they have fire sales every five years…
@Grey: He goes to Garden Grove and realizes the only Asians in the OC are Vietnamese
@Jack Deth the Jew Jew: You think he’ll take a trip to Garden Grove?
@Ralph Lifshitz: its just down the street from the big A, or Big Eh, for Canadians
@Jack Deth the Jew Jew: It’s from the Sublime song.
Yeah, if I were him I’d demand a trade immediately, but I know the OC…
@Grey: its not Bay Area bad, but its pretty bad
I’d rank them Bay Area, OC, San Diego… Can take all of them…
@Grey: San Diego not good?
I’m not a fan, super white
@Grey: San Diego is the best! I’d rather live there than LA. OC second and Bay Area third. I’ve lived up north and a big NO THANK YOU and this is a combination of my distaste for the people and the place. I’ll take the phony conservatism of the OC over the hyper liberal Bay all day.
I’d reverse that, I went to school in OC and it’s boring AF, San Fran can be fun, San Diego is death of fun…
You are missing out on San Diego
Nah, unless I just haven’t been to the right places, but I think I’ve done the highlights and shizz is super bougie
Gray,
I have a deal in place and wanted you thoughts on it. With the number one pick in the minor league draft I am taking Shohei Ohtani, then the guy behind me will take Hunter Greene at #2. I then trade him minor leaguer Luis Urias (2B/SD) for Greene. What do you think?
Works for me
So how would they play him? SP/DH/OF?
SP/DH
wouldnt you rather have him in RF instead of Calhoun?
I wouldn’t
why? injury from from throwing from the outfield?
Yes, unneeded stress, they have a DH spot, they can use it
which means Albert plays 1st and Cron is on the bench?
That would be it, yeah
@Scott Kimmel: Careful with this. I thought I had Ohtani locked up as well as I have the first pick of my minor league draft. But someone is going to draft him in the real draft. I think he is going to go #1 overall in our real draft. 8 team league. 10 keepers per team.
Grey,
I have the 1st and 2nd picks in the upcoming first year player draft. I’m taking Ohtani #1. Regarding the second pick, I’m leaning Robert, but have also considered Greene, Gore, or Lewis. Thoughts?
I’d go off Ralph’s list: https://razzball.com/top-50-prospects-for-2018-fantasy-baseball/ — Looks like Robert
Eppler acquired Jim Johnson because along with him, the Braves gave the Angels international money because the Braves couldn’t use that money anyways with the penalties they received and it worked out for the Angels because they got Ohtani, in part because of that extra money. Smart move by Eppler, except for the fact that Scioscia will send Jim Johnson out for about 55 innings of sub-replacement level pitching, haha.
Ha, yeah, it will backfire in some way, don’t you worry!
Giancarlo to Yanks! All my pants are ruined!!!!
Haha
https://razzball.com/giancarlo-stanton-trade/
Has anyone ever played in a “Net-SB’s” league?
If yes, looking for a few thoughts/pointers. This AM I just took over a team for 2018 root league with that category, which I have never used before.
Going to have to maybe find a site that has a percentage success rate of SBs. And so I guess, this NSB category is a way to try to quantify and also kind of neutralize that stat for some players? My first thought is obviously guys who get CS more than others will lose a bit of value.
So Grey, this will kind of be my approach when viewing your ranks in the spring. A guy that you mention you bump in ranks due to the potential for some legs… He isn’t going to have the same value for that category if he gets caught stealing often. So I”ll have to keep that in mind.
In considering some of the 2017 stats for first round talent for 2018, I see that Blackmon ranked something like 50th in 2017 standard league with his 14 SBs.
However with an NSB category… he added next to nothing in the speed for 2017. So maybe same for 2018, if he gets caught as often as he did last year??
In 2017 Blackmon had an NSB of “4” (with 14 SBs). So in 2017, for a leagues using NSB, Blackmon would rank around 150th or so in the category. He’s among some really random/widely available players on that list.
I got curious about what to look into next. I think my first task is going to be to locate guys who have a track record/pattern of CS year to year. Looking at Blackmon for 2016 he had an NSB of “8” (with 17 SBs). For context, an NSB of “8” would have him ranked around 67th in 2017. So not all that far off from where he ranked in a 2017 standard league!! So my strategy for the category so far hasn’t been the easiest to quickly pin down.
SOS! Anyone have any thoughts or tips?
@knucks: Roto** not root of course
@knucks: Reposting in your new write-up Grey so feel free to ignore this here. Thanks man