The Razzball tools are real, and spectacular. I was poking around and there’s this neat little BABIP vs. Avg. calculator. If you pay, you can play with the tools just like I did.
What we’re gonna do, is focus on this tool and talk about some guys to buy, and some guys to get rid of before the regression monster bites. I’m focusing simply on batting average this week. Keep in mind that the league average average of all the batting average is .240, so a .250 batting average ain’t what it used to be. It’s good now.
Look, a table.
| PLAYER | BABIP | AVG | DIFF |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 0.436 | 0.333 | 0.105 |
| Miguel Sanó | 0.441 | 0.262 | 0.079 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.419 | 0.373 | 0.078 |
| David Fry | 0.400 | 0.355 | 0.076 |
| Mark Vientos | 0.366 | 0.339 | 0.051 |
| Jared Walsh | 0.355 | 0.226 | 0.042 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.312 | 0.291 | 0.042 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0.347 | 0.295 | 0.039 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 0.326 | 0.226 | 0.034 |
| Salvador Perez | 0.345 | 0.315 | 0.033 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.358 | 0.340 | 0.029 |
| Jake Cave | 0.364 | 0.253 | 0.027 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 0.318 | 0.174 | 0.025 |
| Michael Busch | 0.340 | 0.241 | 0.023 |
| Connor Joe | 0.326 | 0.280 | 0.023 |
| Luke Raley | 0.330 | 0.265 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.331 | 0.284 | 0.019 |
If you subscribe, you get projected BABIP, projected batting average, and more. I condensed the table here just to simplify and I can’t, like, give away the stuff!
Sell High:
LaMonte Wade Jr. is a deep league guy probably just due to the fact that he never hits against lefties. I dislike strongly rostering guys like this. The work, man, the work. I’m gonna guess a .436 BABIP isn’t going to sustain; if you can find that guy in the league or a Giants fan, go ahead and do the thing.
Isaac Paredes: The classic sell high guy. ***checks the player page*** Well he is only 25, this could be a breakout. Just remember last year was a .250, then the two previous were below .210. He has been overperforming his metrics this year (.242 average projected, .291 actual) and would guess that he’s closer to the league average mark this year going forward.
Kyle Manzardo: NOOOOOO! I love the Manzalorian, watched him in Durham launch many warning track fly balls. And he’s overperforming his expected .192 average. Dynasty buy; redraft probably a cut until he shows some life.
| PLAYER | BABIP | AVG | DIFF |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.403 | 0.305 | 0.063 |
| Luis Rengifo | 0.359 | 0.323 | 0.059 |
| Mark Vientos | 0.366 | 0.339 | 0.051 |
| José Caballero | 0.367 | 0.260 | 0.050 |
| Yoán Moncada | 0.379 | 0.282 | 0.047 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.312 | 0.291 | 0.042 |
| Oliver Dunn | 0.385 | 0.233 | 0.042 |
| Andy Ibáñez | 0.352 | 0.276 | 0.042 |
| Tyler Wade | 0.345 | 0.260 | 0.038 |
| Josh Smith | 0.348 | 0.281 | 0.036 |
| Anthony Rendon | 0.328 | 0.267 | 0.033 |
| Jon Berti | 0.341 | 0.273 | 0.032 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.320 | 0.284 | 0.032 |
| Eguy Rosario | 0.346 | 0.250 | 0.030 |
| Abraham Toro | 0.322 | 0.277 | 0.029 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.344 | 0.294 | 0.027 |
| Ryan McMahon | 0.359 | 0.284 | 0.026 |
Third Base Sell High:
You may think Mark Vientos is a buy high guy after his recent hot streak. You may be right. You may especially be right against lefties, who he’s batting .464 against. Okay, fine, I just talked myself into the guy. His Statcast supports what he’s done, his pedigree is solid, and Brett Baty just got sent down so his runway is long. Worth a flier, methinks.
Anthony Rendon: Rendon for sure has been over……….ah screw it, it’s a bad joke. Just seeing if anyone is still reading.
| PLAYER | BABIP | AVG | DIFF | |
| Christopher Morel | 0.205 | 0.195 | -0.059 | |
| Colt Keith | 0.264 | 0.223 | -0.028 | |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 0.250 | 0.227 | -0.024 |
Third Base Possible Buy Lows
The table is smaller here, because the underperformers have a lot of guys that aren’t really fantasy assets. What, you want me to analyze AAA Iowa Cub Miles Mastrobuoni?
I’ve talked about Christopher Morel as a buy low, but I wrote that it is possible here. For some reason, the metrics love the guy but baseball doesn’t. A .205 average just doesn’t cut it. He’s struggled to hit line drives and his exit velocity is down, and watching him I see a lot of lazy flies, or warning track power as they said I had in high school. The idea behind this is BABIP over and underperformers; this goes against all this because I wouldn’t buy Morel. You can though! Stats can support it! Most smart guys will tell you to get him as an obvious buy low but after two months, you have to wonder if he is an outlier here.
Colt Keith, he’ll play, and has a chance to help you in this category, but more of a deep league guy.
Ha-Seong Kim is going to be really helpful in the second half. The 13 steals are of course the driving force, but there’s upside for average the rest of the season. Buy. Yes, you. Yes now.
| PLAYER | BABIP | AVG | DIFF |
| Josh Naylor | 0.205 | 0.227 | -0.062 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0.247 | 0.190 | -0.042 |
OOOOOOH, I see you, Josh Naylor! His average has dropped, but this table suggests he’s had bad luck. His expected batting average is .289. I did the math. That’s 62 points higher than his current one. This is my number one recommendation this week is to see if you can score yourself some Naylor. That’s a massive underperformance.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand was unlucky before getting even more unlucky and getting hurt. If you have the room, stash that guy! Last I heard, he’s going to be reevaluated today (June 5) and then see. Could be nothing, could be something.
