For all intents and purposes, Jean Segura was a flopapotamus last year, failing to get to any of the previous year’s stats across the board. That includes the all loving steals category. He has gone from 33 in 2016, to 22 last year, to already having 11 in just over 200 plate appearances, which is a phenomenal pace for anyone that bought into him a his ADP in draft season. Eleven steals already leads to a projection of right around 40, and 40 steals is fantastic, as it has only been eclipsed 10 times in the last few years. Which brings back my old standby statement: that steals are a dying breed except for the select few. I fully expect that the Mariners, who currently sit top-6 in MLB in steals, to keep the running game as a a major cog now that Robbie Cano isn’t around showing his elite speed. With Dee Gordon and Segura, the Mariners have a duo of speed that really is unrivaled by other MLB teams. The past week for Jean has seen his total jump from 5 to 11 steals overall. (Coincidence that Cano isn’t in the lineup that he is taking the base rather than trying to get hit over? I think not.) Nothing about that screams coincidence, it would be more of a coincidence for me to casually run into my ex-girlfriend outside the church on her wedding day. So with a slash line of .414/.419/.655 since the removal of Cano, he looks primed to be an even more of a steal threat moving forward. That is also a nod for Dee because the re-invention of lineup changes is the way a team plays. I read that in a fortune cookie just now. So welcome to SAGNOF day, kinda like Rusev day, but with less Bulgarian influence.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Nothing is worse than owning a closer you drafted… you get comfortable and things are going well. You’re sitting pretty, a dalmation on the beer cart. Then poof! The dreaded word that for fantasy players and save connaisseurs is worse than the “I’m pregnant” line; That word is a “group”, from singular to plural. It isn’t fair. These guys don’t know the hours of time we devote to drafting a team and then getting pimped to the waiver wire for the next dude up. Well, that is where we are currently sitting with Atlanta and Philadelphia. Adding more names to the donkeycorn factory at the end of the chart. Joining the fray are now Tommy Hunter, A.J. Minter, Seranthony Dominguez, Dan Winkler, and a slew of other candidates that are all in bathrobes in a line by height down the hallway. Save orgies are good for one thing and one thing only, diversifying the stat and keeping you closer to the leader by expanding the save universe. But we all live in “a one man, one save” lifestyle like the Puritans. So what do we make of all this mess, besides getting a waiver wire mop and roster as many as possible? Stay calm if you own the old closer. There was a reason they had the job initially, and they are still in the running. Dropping a potential save candidate to the wire is never a good idea, unless you are upgrading and getting a better save option that has the job outright. This savey save advice is keen when you are middle of the pack, but if you are chasing saves and falling behind by the day, trading for one of a higher caliber is the tact to go. Let us see what else is happening in the end game of fantasy…
Please, blog, may I have some more?The theory of SAGNOF is capitalizing on the chances in front of your face. The “polish sausage” king of steals has returned from the minors and re-established his presence in the stead of others. Travis Jankowski started the year out of favor, not just based on ability, just on talent. With Manuel Margot struggling and injured and Hunter Renfroe basically doing the same exact thing (but getting Pipped by Franchy), Travis has jumped from AAA and shown his best SAGNOF face. Hitting .368, with 2 steals and OBP of .455 over 12 games since his return. We all know of his one sided ability in the SAGNOF game because that is what makes him the prince of this and basically the west coast Rajai. His availability in leagues is less than 5% owned across most formats and should steadily climb until the outfield situation is a muck. An OF of Margot, Franchy, and Travis is of the extremely light-hitting variety. It is using Travis now before the likes of Wil Myers, whose return is the question. With Myers eventual return a few weeks off to possibly 10 days, using Jankowski now for the steals affect isn’t a bad idea as his stats say that he can hit, get on base and effectively get on base. The 30-steal year just two years ago shows that he has a penchant for the swipe, just has to avoid attrition, replacement and the inevitable return of better talent. He has the gig for the next week to 10 days so now is the time to see if you can steal, pun intended, a few bases to pad your stats and move along. That is what SAGNOF is, hit and move. Don’t fall in love. get what you want out of it and than throw it to the waiver wire dogs. It is a sad world we live in and there is no cuddling in the quest for steals world. I don’t care how great the big spoon feels. More saves and steals ain’t got no face goodies after the bump.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I mean, who doesn’t like a good old Kenny Rogers reference? I appreciate it, but was more keen on Islands in the Stream, which in reality still works for this post. This week, I wanna focus y’alls attention on when to keep relievers of hold value or when to fold them and grab someone new. I wanted to bring this up because the near-leader in holds currently is Juan Nicasio. (Who for all intents and purposes is a fantastic Holds pitcher when you just take into account the hold total of 12. Which trails only Archie.) The hold total is great for holds leagues says captain obvious. The peripheral stuff is absolutely poop though. Commander Poop, for the full nautical theme. He checks none of the boxes from the non-hold league boxes, his K-rate is just a tick above 9, HR/9 at 2.0, a BAA over .300 and an ERA over 6… Those are not the four checks that I was referring too. So for mixed leagues, the guys you want to own are all over these standards: The K-rate has to be at or above 11 K/9, which includes over 60 relievers in baseball. HR/9 has to be tiny, think under 0.50, BAA against has to be anything at or below league average of .243. And lastly, the ERA has to be respectful, but not the end-all-be-all of determinations, because unluckiness does happen with relievers. So when doing your homework for reliever adds, make a checklist of those three stats and let the ERA be the tie-breaker in determining your add. In holds leagues, quantity does matter, but if you are only going to eat one banana why buy the whole bunch and let them ruin all the other categories?
Please, blog, may I have some more?
SAGNOF Report: Like Taking Second Base From A Baby
May 7, 2018 | Uncategorized | 8 Commentsby: Smokey
SAGNOF info is the best way to get a leg up on the SAGNOF trade. (I challenged myself to use that anagram twice in the same sentence.) Challenge accomplished, and in the first line too! Wish I had longer arms than those baby T-Rex arms because the pats on the back wouldn’t stop. As I continue the back lauding, the week upcoming is a bear market in steals. The year is mimicking the previous year’s steals downward trend, as it is down almost 8% of the pace from last years total to date. So if you have a valuable piece of steals bait that isn’t doing so great, let’s say his name is “Billy Hamilton” and you are having trouble getting ample trade value for him… read this post so it can be explained that despite his sub-200 average and lower than expected 5 steals to date, he still has stolen base value. Yes, you are going to have to trade for 75 cents on the dollar, but explain this to someone looking for steals and are down on Billy that he is still top-20 in steals and with that 5 steals total, he would be at 20% of most teams total steals on the year in fantasy. That number obviously changes by league type and such, and I took an average of all the leagues I myself compete in (median is 31). So while I sit here and let you either figure out how to sell high or buy low on Billy Hamilton, continue the read and learn about the steals that will come, have happened, and the week’s thievery to be. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Closers wear many hats, many outfits, and work their way up to that garnered closer spot. Now that Hunter Strickland is there, established and doing work, what will become of him if/when Mark Melancon returns… eventually? Melancon is scheduled for a bullpen session this weekend and he was previously scheduled for a throwing session a few days before, but instead played catch. Was his dad in town and they wanted to reminisce about the days of yore? But back to the guy in the seat in Strickland, him of the plus 9 K/9, 7 saves in 9 chances and .170 BAA. Those are all numbers for a closer that makes you comfy and cuddly in a “set it and forget it” kinda way. Though in all fairness, you should never remove your closer from your starting roster. So how long, or better yet, do we trust that Melancon just walks in like Wooderson from Dazed and Confused with ‘This is the story of the Hurricane’ playing behind and retakes his job? I am leery that he even makes it through his bullpen session. Kinda serious, but… kinda serious. The people that drafted Melancon aren’t losing anything but a DL slot. The people that own Strickland via FAAB or waiver wire pick up deserve him keeping the job. I am fighting for the common man here! The everyday waiver wire warrior. So rooting for Strickland now is a thing, I am going to get some foam fingers made that have some catchy quote on them. So if you are a Strickland owner, it is a firm hold and hope the MM never makes it back. For the Melancon owners… sorry. Hope he falls down and breaks his crown. Closer report, rankings, and musings heading your way. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?The fantasy world is buzzing with a guy with a tilde in his name, a name that not need speaking. Because all the prospects analysts have been walking around like freak cases of Cialis gone wrong. I hear that if you point your juggs gun at it for 30 seconds, it will subside. Sticking with the Bravos though, I am intrigued by the possibilities around the ever in the lineup presence of Ender Inciarte. (Him of the 8 steals in his last 14 games.) When thinking about that total in the past fortnight, it’s more than six whole teams have all season. I wish that was made up, but there are some slow of foot teams who like the one bag at a time approach. Batting a crisp .339, getting on-base with an even crispier .369, and has only not hit in the leadoff spot one entire time all year. Coincidentally, it was yesterday. Uncoincidentally, he still produced. He is a fixture (at the peak of that blossoming before our eyes) in the lineup, and the best thing about it is that his defense will keep him on the manager’s card to play every single day. Defensive ability may be the sleepy fantasy stat that has no measuring stick. Although his counting stats maybe a tad slight on the runs/RBI’s, you want him for his SAGNOF appeal, that and he plays next whats his face. Stay cozy, my friends as we round the first month out of fantasy in style, and by style I mean with no pants and a tub of ice cream.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report, Week 4: Bear Riders And Stecken Cloughs
April 27, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 16 Commentsby: Smokey
The Miami Jeters are currently cruising on a sub-60 win pace. Nice if you look at the investment value in terms of dollars and the amount of talent on the field. Now the once or semi-reliable closer, Brad Ziegler, has puked up another save chance and seen his ERA climb a blood alcohol level of 8.44. That is a Cherynoblian level that usually results in a quick change, minus Bill Murray dressed as a clown. In the wings are two decent enough options that in most leagues should be owned for their K prowess. They being Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough. A change is coming, as the soft-tossing Ziegler can’t rely on sorcery and garbage to will him through save chances, no matter how few and far between they are. The Marlins, from a standpoint of we are only winning X amount of games, and can’t afford to lose Y because of a closer who can’t shut the door is just bad for business. I am grabbing Steckenrider before Barraclough just based on games and position of appearances of date. It is really tough to say though because they have 7 wins, and neither guy has featured more than 4 appearances when the team has been leading. But Steck has seen more 8th innings, and I like him better because he has a closer makeup. So add accordingly if save speculating is your bag, but with success in closing comes success in the setup game. And don’t ignore Barraclough either, because he will be in elevated positions as well and since this is the Holds portion of the week, go get him if free.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I have gone over the preseason, in-season, and shortly in 5-6 months, the postseason love for all things Tim Anderson. No, the another SB dude from the other, other side of Chicago. Which in my mind is a triangle, or from the angle that I am drinking at, it’s a complete hypotenuse. Yoan Moncada over the last 11 days has proven that the Go-Go Sox are in full affect, or flavor. Whatever the millennials wanna call it. Is rad still a thing? Never the who, he has 4 steals over the last 11 games and the propensity, which we thought was potential in the preseason for a lot of the southsiders, is totally a legit thing. The license to steal (like an opposite version of Bond, or a Fredo Bandido of steals) has the Sox players that hit towards the top of the lineup, when on base, gives them full autonomy to take it. And by it, I mean the steal of a bag. Not only do I love it, I would condone a trade for Yoan at some expense that is a sort of overspend. His hit rate screams breakout, and I mean who doesn’t like a screamer. Lets everyone know who is laying down the law. Gives us all a little extra wink-wink. Extra is right! He has hit near the top of the order for days and it should continue. The one thing that bad teams are good at is ulterior fantasy goodies, and steals is definitely one of those stats. So do yourself a favor, go propose to the Yoan owner and say would you have and hold me forever, and ever, and trade me him for a slightly over pay. Your stats won’t hate you in the morning. Let’s see what else is hopping on the good foot and stealing the good things in the saves and steals department. But with charts for her pleasure…or yours.
Picking on catchers in daily roster moves is fun. Here are the SV leaders for steals against this season. Not ever stat is a good stat, especially when you have catchers and the frequency of steals against. It isn’t always their fault, but it is not, not their fault. Ya dig?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Not only is it bad for marriage, but it is doomsday for fantasy baseball. Rostering three relievers from one team, all who accrue saves is just a blight on society. No one has the ability to carry three separate relievers from one team. Unless… naw… it’s just stupid to even think about. Two, I can be on board with. Definitely two. So you and two guys from one bullpen can have a save-a-trois. This is the good/bad problem right now with fantasy baseball. When do we say when for owning relievers from one team. We almost need a safe word, and even then we wanna over-rosterbate and leave lineup chafe marks. The current situations in Houston and Milwaukee are both good and bad. The good are Chris Devenski and Josh Hader. The semi-good is Jacob Barnes and Brad Peacock. The bad is bringing in and rostering Matt Albers and Ken Giles. I say they are bad only because it brings back the too many hens in the savehouse-type scenario. Plus, Ken Giles has basically been phased with high-end stuff lately and he of the high draft choice are just wasting away like Dick Gregory on the Bohemian diet. It is an impossible pill to swallow, that he’s a drop just 15 games into the season, but at what point do you look at your losses and start accruing stats that matter from a coveted relief spot? (Stats that actually matter.) No, Greg Holland walks don’t count, ya donkey. So when rostering relievers, think two max. The only other fourth guy that should be looking at the save circle jerk is if you are comfortable enough having a cameraman. Stay tuned kiddies, more tidbits of closer-dom after the bump… plus the first in-season 12 Buck Salads, Donkeycorns, Employed, and Freezes!
Please, blog, may I have some more? SAGNOF Report: Fantastic Steals And Where To Find Them
April 16, 2018 | Uncategorized | 25 Commentsby: Smokey
The stolen base department is always a tough sledding affair. It is filled with guessing and presumptuous displays of picking the right guy in the right situation. Steals are very hard to come by on a regular basis currently so the steals are a “trending downward” property. So hitting on one SAGNOF flyer for the week or via the waiver wire for immediate returns is just a hard thing to predict. At best, the wire fellas will net you one steal a week, and that is being generous. So looking at the trends “against teams, by teams that steal” is the best model for the stolen base business. Upcoming matchups for the week are the way to go if you wanna guess, but guess with style and maybe a better idea of who is stealing on who and how often. Taking not only advantage of a catcher skill set but a team skill set for their propensity to give of the thievery. So here is the SAGNOF report for this week with a scheduler forecaster for the 10-most frequent base stealing teams and their schedule for the week…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report: Worth The Price Of Gas
April 13, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 25 Commentsby: Smokey
Speed kills. Whether that be by the arm or legs. But this isn’t no SAGNOF post, this is the weekly look at strictly bullpens. At what point do we stop looking at velocity and its effectiveness being a correlative? Probably never, as the statcast era has never looked stronger as geeks type in the square roots of derivatives to figure out the best angle of deflection for them to walk down the stairs in their parents basement. It’s a tale as old as time, and people like me mock math and numbers because, well… I am lazy. Numbers always existed, but now they are so finite that you can get a feet per second drop of a the pin that no one can hear. So maybe I should delve into the fray here and take a look at the early season velocity for closers and how they compare to last year and how they correlate to K success. Velocity isn’t the end all be all of reliever success, but is fully in the forefront when studs like Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are teetering on slow-pokes compared days of yore. So I made a hand dandy chart, comparing last years average fastball velocity, K/9 and Swinging strike % to this years to see where the relationship between success, worry and full on panic in the closer realms exist.
Please, blog, may I have some more?