The stolen base department is always a tough sledding affair.  It is filled with guessing and presumptuous displays of picking the right guy in the right situation.  Steals are very hard to come by on a regular basis currently so the steals are a “trending downward” property. So hitting on one SAGNOF flyer for the week or via the waiver wire for immediate returns is just a hard thing to predict.  At best, the wire fellas will net you one steal a week, and that is being generous.  So looking at the trends “against teams, by teams that steal” is the best model for the stolen base business. Upcoming matchups for the week are the way to go if you wanna guess, but guess with style and maybe a better idea of who is stealing on who and how often.  Taking not only advantage of a catcher skill set but a team skill set for their propensity to give of the thievery.  So here is the SAGNOF report for this week with a scheduler forecaster for the 10-most frequent base stealing teams and their schedule for the week…

Team  SB’s Against Week’s opponents (Team Steals)
Mets 16 vs. Nationals (18) , @Braves (9)
White Sox 14 @Athletics (3) , vs. Astros (8)
Rockies 12 @Pirates (8) , vs. Cubs (4)
Padres 11 vs. Dodgers (3) , @D-Backs (8)
Braves 10 vs. Phillies (12) , vs. Mets (3)
Orioles 10 @Tigers(8) , vs. Indians (13)
Reds 10 @Brewers (11) , @Cardinals (9)
Giants 10 @D-Backs (8) , @Angels (8)
Rays 10 vs. Rangers (4) , vs. Twins (8)
Royals 9 @Blue Jays (8) , @Tigers (8)


  • Chart is showing that the Mets and their catcher injuries are a team that is getting run against.  Michael Taylor, Ender Inciarte and Ryan Flaherty look like the plays against them.
  • Take advantage of Tucker and the Reds catchers this week.  Differentials on the Brew crew like Hernan Perez could get you a swipe.
  • Wilson Ramos is getting the majority of thefts against him for the Rays, but facing two teams that don’t steal is a bad gamble this week.
  • Loading up on Tigers for the doubleheader om Friday versus the Royals seems like a good play.

Mallex Smith – With injuries comes playing time and speed just needs opportunities.  Is the starting guy there now for the Rays and with 2 steals in last 7 games played the time to jump on a Mallex (which sounds like a fun trampoline) is now.

Ian Kinsler – Returned form the DL and is going to score a ton and steal his fair share. Hitting lead-off is a great thing in that lineup.

Joey Wendle – I don’t love his fantasy skill set, but he is getting heavy at bats at second base.  Counting stats and batting average may not be abundant but he got on base at a .400 clip this past week.  And the Rays need to manufacture runs.

Hanley Ramirez – It is the fountain of Hanley.  Looks rejuvenated and is totally stealing bases, as teams aren’t paying attention to his adequate base awareness. Already has 3 steals on the year and gets on base nearly 40% of the time.

Jake Diekman – Got the save yesterday but nothing to see here.  kela was the stopper in a tie game.  just interesting to see him get the chance over other guys, Martin especially.  Handcuffs for me are still Martin, Jepsen, Claudio, Diekman in that order.

Bud Norris – Looks like the stop gap until the ball throwing Dutchman gets his stuff together.  Short term he is the answer, long term if you wanna buy in on Holland for cheap now is the time.

Josh Hader – The comes a time when the other parts around you just aren’t as good and moving that best option to the ultimate spot is the answer that we all knew should happen anyways.  Hader is the goods.   Knocks down Barnes and Jeffress way out of the question I think.  Albers is still the hold as the wanna control Hader’s workload for now.







  1. goodfold2 says:

    30 team league (dynasty) holds and saves, gregerson off DL (this hurts lyons possibly above for holds), gotta drop which of these:
    s.alexander 2.4 mil (110 mil budgets) this year
    vincent 3.200,100 this year
    jepsen .4 this year (off WW)
    j.johnson (doing well actually) 2.049 this year
    gregerson 5.2 this year (bid when he was closing according to the liars at STL)
    n.jones 5.348 this year
    roe .4 this year (off WW)
    gotta be alexander or roe.

  2. omar says:

    Who assumes the closer role in Tampa should Colome eventually get demoted? Romo or Alvarado?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @omar: both would be in consideration. I think first would go to Romo, but long term play is Alvarado

  3. H says:

    Is Devinski now the closer in Houston? The past few games he’s pitched in the 9th with Giles on the bench!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @H: Houston is fluid. All can do everyone’s job and Hinch uses them acoordingly. Sucks for Fantasy but all are ownable. Devenski, Peacock and Giles.

  4. Robert Ferris says:

    hold or Drop Chris Davis?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @Robert Ferris: drop not worth much of anything including the headache for average.

  5. Dan says:

    Who is better for rest of season ? N.walker or T. Hernandez ?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @Dan: Hernandez.

  6. Ryan says:

    Pick up Hader for any of these options: Greene, Kela, Holland? Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @Ryan: hader needs to be owned. Find a way!!!

  7. LeftCoastYankee says:

    Free Agent: Teoscar Hernandez or Mallex Smith?

  8. Hey Smokey.
    14 team. 6×6 (OPS; Holds).Redraft H2H. 32 man rosters (we start 11 P).
    Looking for an upside RP arm for ratios, k’s and holds. Please rank the top three (3) outta this group:

    Dominic Leone
    Blake Parker
    Josh Fields
    Tony Cingrani
    Dan Altavilla
    Victor Arano
    Amir Garrett

    For reference, I own: Vizcaino. Trienen. Steckenrider. Jacob Barnes. Gsellman.

    Thanks for the take in advance.

      • @Smokey:
        Thanks. If you were to rank 1-3 on that list…
        1 – Arano
        2 – ??
        3 – ??

  9. Luvdarooks says:

    When will reed take over as closer in MIN ?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @Luvdarooks: soon but not too soon. Mid May

  10. Cole Trickle says:

    Who is the Miami RP that you would want on your roster by the end of the season? I own Barraclough but Steckenrider is still in free agency. No holds credit in my league- saves, ratios, K/9 are primary reliever cats.

    Do you think Nate Jones will take full control of closer responsibilities in CWS?

    Thank you!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @Cole Trickle: Steckenrider and yes I think Jones is the guy to own. Just worry about usage coming back from injury.

      • Cole Trickle says:

        @Smokey: Thanks Smokey!

        Addison Reed just hit waivers in my league- think he’s worth a spot over Barraclough and Steck? I currently have Vazsquez, Allen, Holland, Nate Jones and Barraclough.

  11. KMDA007 says:


    Thoughts on A Garrett?

    12 team saves+holds league

    I have A Bradley, J Hader, B Treinen, B Parker, T Lyons, G Holland and A Swarzak (DL). Make a move or no?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:

      @KMDA007: Garrett to me is the least ugliest beauty pageant contestant on a team filled with ugly beauty contestants. I would hold for now. You have s great art of lads.

  12. I'm Keith Hernandez says:

    Nicasio still a top holds guy for you?

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