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I Mean, Prospects Don’t Last For 13 Years Right?

Some players get the call to stage quickly, and for some, like Frankie Montas it takes a bit longer when you’re sauteed on the hot stove. He began his journey stateside in professional baseball with the Red Sox in 2009. After working his way up their farm system to AA he was traded to the White Sox at the deadline in 2013 as a part of the 3-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to Boston. Starting over at A-ball he had to work his way up again, and finally, as a member of the AA Barons in 2015, Montas carried a 2.97 ERA in 112 IP.

That was enough to earn him a cup of coffee in which the young flamethrower posted a 12.0 K/9 despite a 5 BB/9 in a limited 15 innings. That same season he appeared in the Southern League All-Star Game as well as the MLB Futures Game. You see, in spring training that season Montas flashed his 70-grade fastball that began to touch 100 mph since he had built up more strength. And thus the hype built up with him.

Then that offseason, Frankie Montas was traded to the Dodgers. Once again, he was the primary chip in a deal; this time sending Todd Fraizer to the White Sox as part of another 3-team deal with the Reds.

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My relationship with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is an 80s rock ballad. There was a time when I believed in love. And much like his plate discipline, Gurriel and I fell apart. I never thought he’d hurt me, I guess you live and learn, that when you’re playin’ with fire, you’re bound to get burned. And burned I was. I remember it like it was yesterday… as if it was archived on this very website (here). After starting slow in 2019, he was sent down mid-April to correct his approach, and then returned posting a 20/6/.277 line in 2019. May and June he was as hot as can be, then in August he was as cold as ice, and he was willing to sacrifice our love. Why’d he gone so cold?

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The Mystery

I love a good mystery. So why not start my preseason writing off with a mystery? That mystery is, what the [bleep] are we supposed to do with Nestor Cortes? He came on to the scene last year and found something magical. After some unimpressive showings before he put a spell on hitters last year with great effect. Nestor was magnificent!

Season IP ERA WHIP FIP K% BB% K-BB% AVG BABIP HR/FB
Before 2021 79 6.72 1.71 6.69 21.7% 10.3% 11.4% 0.297 0.327 22.6%
2021 93 2.90 1.08 3.78 27.5% 6.7% 20.9% 0.216 0.265 11.3%

So main thing to note is in 2021 Nestor started 14 games. Before that, he had only started a grand total of… (carry the 1… multiply by square root…) 2 games. 2 games that’s it. So this was a bit of a new foray for him. It’s not often that you go from the pen to starting and your numbers improve drastically. Not just a little mind you; but by every conceivable measure, he got better. His K-rate went up, BB-rate went down, and he cut home runs in half while suppressing hard contact and limiting runners. Everything you could possibly want. Mama mia!

The plot thickens…

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Like a fool, I went and drafted wrong…

At the beginning of the season, I didn’t publically campaign for him (much) but I did take Blake Snell in probably a third of my 12/15 team leagues—like RazzSlam. Often I was targeting Snell, Burnes, Lynn as my SP1 from the backend draft slot. For Snell, I figured 1) the skill was still there (pitches were still decent and K rate was still good); 2) he’d won a CY in the past and was incredibly unlucky with the long ball in 2020 (29.4%); and 3) Moving out from Kevin Cash’s thumb and the AL East to the NL West and the friendly pitching atmosphere (literal and metaphorical) of the Padres’ and Petco Park would set him up for a very nice year much like Joe Musgrove, whom I did write about here before the season.

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Hey sports fans, I’m back this week with my first deep dive in a hot minute. Sometimes life can get a bit overwhelming yeah? You gotta take a deep breath and lean into your support system. Things have stabilized a bit now, and here we are… and here I am. Life, love, and baseball. 3 things that get me stoked. Baseball really is a magical thing.

One thing I always love to see: the archetype of the phoenix rising from the ashes. The reinvention. Somebody comes back with a new wrinkle, new process… maybe just a new perspective that changes the game for them in a positive way. Could be a guy that was formerly on top or someone that never was. Maybe because it says something about the “resilience of the human spirit.” Yes, it’s just baseball, but sport is a microcosm of the human condition (see my connection?). Either way, I love it. And what I love most about writing and talking about baseball, is the players’ stories. I love storytelling and a well-told story.

Enter one Collin McHugh, stage right.

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The second half of the season is upon us boys and girls. And since the second half of baseball is basically a new season I spent the All-Star Break rebuilding my methodology for these ranks. I kept the core data but decided to change how I look at it a bit now that we have had nearly three and a half months of 2021 baseball data to draw from, which is now MORE than all of the 2020 season and its tomfoolery. So we turn a page and begin anew.

Unfortunately, we will be beginning anew without Ronald Acuna Jr., RIP. It will be interesting on draft day next season as for 2 seasons back-to-back now, Mr. 1.01 has dealt with an injury missing a good chunk of time. I think I still see him as the big Mac Tildaddy, but there’s some blemish on his armor now that wasn’t there before. Hopefully, this is just a blip on the radar. As the sun sets on one of our heroes, it rises for another. Who could that be? None other than…

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So with the month of June in the rearview mirror, balls were once sticky but now clean and clear. Summer brings warmer weather and balls are beginning to leave the yard more. In the month of May, there were 936 home runs hit in MLB. And now, 1019 in June with 336 coming since June 21st, the start of the Sticky Inquisition. That’s an increase of roughly 66 per month. Does the drop in spin rates or rising temps matter more?

Who knows, but July should be the first full month in the heat of summer… so buckle up. This is the Outfield channel and figured, why not express my adulation for the month of Schwarbulation (in the 7th year of our Schwarb) through the art of song. In fact, a totally original song I just wrote for this very occasion:

Kyle’s on a roadtrip far away
Come around and let’s watch together
So many things I want to say
You know, I wish the month was a little bit longer
I just want you to hit a dong tonight
I don’t want to lose my roto points tonight
Yeaaaahhhhhh…

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I was taken aback when I saw Taijuan Walker a week or so ago post a line of 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 12 Ks. He’s made some good starts this year… but THAT one really got my attention. There were no walks, a lot of Ks, and he pitched deep into the game. Hello there. This is not the same Walker we once knew.

Coming into the league, Walker was heralded as a flame-throwing pitcher with a heater that could touch 98 mph. That pitch did not translate quite as well as was hoped when he faced MLB hitters since it was lacking much movement. He struggled the first couple seasons with injures and eventually had Tommy John surgery that was followed by several shoulder ailments that have plagued his career until recently. In the short 2020 season, he pitched through it and made it into free agency. This last winter he signed with Mets, and from the looks of it, it’s beginning to seem like they got a steal.

Before we can see what he’s doing, we need to see what he’s done (when healthy)…

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Ah, the sweet sounds of summer. Managers chirping. The pop of the bats as they wake from their early spring hibernation. Hitters all going down with soft tissue injuries. Pitchers breaking down with overuse injuries. And of course, Rob Manfred trying to fix something nobody wanted fixed while ignoring the plight of minor leaguers sleeping in their Geo Metros.

Everything just as I remember it from 2019.

As we approach the summer months we’ll undoubtedly start to see some players break out of their early-season funk. Players finding their rhythm, returning from injury, and hitting flyballs into the hot summer air. We will also begin to see who is for real and who is pretending. To start off our hot bat summer, here are a few names that I have noticed around the league.

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As I laid on the hospital bed recovering from my very painful bout with back spasms, I had a revelation. Maybe it was the morphine. Maybe it was the 4 nights in a row with less than an hour of sleep; or, perhaps it was my conscience and thoughts of my own mortality. Who knows. But I saw a vision of Jocko Willink before me. He challenged me to take full ownership of my life and own all my wins and all my losses. Especially the losses. Nothing is someone else’s fault. Nothing is chance, nothing is variance.

I am responsible for all my takes, and all my taeks. Whether they are good or bad… I am responsible. I am a capable person that can tilt the scale; if I fail, I need to learn from it and better myself. If I succeed, I need to learn from it and replicate it. I have no idea if anyone else in the biz does a post like this where they intentionally point out everything haha, but I’m going to give it a try and start now. Here. we. go.

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We are 2 months into the season now (when the 2020 season ended, crazy huh?). Is it bad that the majority of success right now can be weighed by how many of your guys are on the IL? Oof. The other working title was “Doom Over My Hammy Edition” but that was just ridiculous. This week’s episode has become basically a spin-off of JKJ’s weekly bit, Ambulance Chasers. whew. That’s not so much an ambulance whew whew, as it is a sarcastic celebratory whew. Although… why not both? So as I said, we’re 2 months into this season now which puts us at roughly the 1/3 mark. Therefore, I have now made some adjustments to projected values reflecting this very truth. And that’s right, you guessed it. Adolis Garcia is rocketing up the charts like his batted balls to the heavens. I don’t have him in enough places and that makes me sad. Oof. Oh, and spoiler alert, Mike Trout is injured now… giant OOF. So many Oofs and so little time. But first, a word on the god-man Shohei Ohtani…

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