It’s not often we look to Arizona for help in the pitching department. I mean, we’ve lovingly referred to Chase Field as Coors in the desert, Coors Lite (cuz when you make a reference, it’s gotta be about beer even when it’s bad, amirite?), Rocky Mountain High at Sea Level…hrm, that last one I’ve never heard but maybe it’ll become a thing now? Whatevs, the point is, it’s a bit of a risk taking on an arm from these games because the field plays so well for hitters. Make no mistake here, there’s nothing safe about starting Robbie Ray here. His skillset doesn’t truly inspire confidence and that’s evident by his recent run. Overall, he’s a situational pitcher and that’s what has put me on him today. Prior to yesterday’s 8 run outburst the Cardinals offense had been abhorrent of late, putting up a measly 86 wRC+ in August while K’ing 22.3% of the time. What makes Ray even more intriguing is that the Cardinals numbers vs lefties on the year are identically bad vs southpaws overall, sitting at 88 and 22.8%, respectively. You’re not looking to Ray to score you more than 30 but at his $6,300 price tag, a healthy 20 to 25 point range isn’t going to hurt you at all. And with that, let’s move on. Here’s my desert hot takes for this Monday DK slate…
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Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $10,200 – Look, Jacob deGrom is deBomb and there ain’t nothing wrong with starting him against the Phillies, but I see Hisashi’s chances for good things a little easier to reach. The Athletics have been one of the worst offenses in the second half and Hisashi has spun four straight quality starts, going at minimum 7 innings in all of them. For cash, I’ll definitely be singing Iwakuma Matata.
Julio Teheran, SP: $8,100 – For season long, Teheran has been frustratingly inconsistent but for daily, you just need to look at those Rockies on the road stats and settle in here. A Jusashi Iwaheran meld for cash makes a lot of sense.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $6,500 – The Astros have been ice cold as a team in August, producing a woeful 84 wRC+ while striking out 23.9% of the time. Eovaldi hasn’t been what I wanted nor expected this year for my season long teams but there’s a solid chance for 6 K and the win here with 20 points well within reach.
Adam Morgan, SP: $4,700 – If you wanna get all sorts of crunk in a GPP, the Mets vs lefties has been bad all year. Yeah, but they went and got Cespedes…they’ve changed! Not really, friends, as Yoenis has had some major reverse splits in 2015. Low ownership nearly guaranteed here (and probably for good reason).
Mike Zunino, C: $2,500 – So with Felix Doubront’s last start, you can go with the half full take and point out the 8 Ks. For me, I’d rather go half empty with it and point out the 6 walks. Zunino isn’t a great player but I’m gonna look to punt catcher today and like the potential of Mariners bats in general. Consider this a nod to Ketel Marte, Austin Jackson, Franklin Gutierrez, and Nelson Cruz.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B: $5,800 – I know, I know, the most expensive bat is a guy you should start. Shocking! Great American Ballpark is the second best park for homers for right handed bats behind Coors and I mean just behind. Since we are here, might as well point out J.D. Martinez as well.
Gregory Bird, 1B: $3,600 – This may become Mark Teixeira if he’s back on Monday but really, I just want in on the short Yankee porch and Scott Feldman’s fly ball tendencies however I can.
Martin Prado, 2B/3B: $3,100 – Not something that people realize since Giancarlo Stanton went down is that the Marlins are still slightly dangerous vs lefties. A full stack is probably foolhardy but Prado and maybe Marcell Ozuna could be GPP game changers at a low price.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $4,500 – Remember that Feldman bit above? Well, he’s had a bad case of the reverse splits all year. A-Rod should be batting 3rd. Analysis over, deal with it *slips on 8 bit shades*.
Wilmer Flores, 2B/SS: $3,500 – The one bat in the Mets lineup I’m intrigued by has to be Wilmer as he’s the Mets’ lone bright spot vs lefties. Flores carries a .306 average along with a .224 ISO and 144 wRC+ against southpaws on the year. Only worry here is if the Mets try and trade him mid-game again.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $3,900 – I know he’s not in Coors and I know I strongly suggested Teheran above in cash but A) CarGo has 13 of his 30 HRs this year on the road B) has hit well home and away since his resurgence and C) this price point is usually put on someone struggling at the plate. A cheap chance at a solo shot works just fine for me.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game that has any high end chance of rain at this point is the game in the desert…hrm, ok Mother Nature. Of course, Chase Field has one of those cool retractable roof thingies so no bigs, we should be all clear.
Doing Lines In Vegas
To no one’s surprise, deGrom is the heavy favorite on the day at -210 in the PHIvsNYM tilt. Can’t and won’t argue that but I will say that Philly have been heavy underdogs all year regardless of how well their bats are going. I’m not saying this to scare you off deGrom, just be aware that Brett Anderson was given over a -200 against them at one point and got spanked, if memory serves. Vegas don’t know everything, baby, and it also doesn’t mean the start is always DK-worthy. Anywho, outside of that, our trends. The highest o/u on the day is CINvsDET as they got a half run bump up to 9. I didn’t mention any Reds bats simply due to how poorly they’ve been batting as a team in August but Buck Farmer has a way of making hitters look good. We also have CHWvsBOS with a half line bump from the open up to 8.5. On the reverse of this, Ray and his Dbacks see a half run shaved off the open down to 8 and Lynn being the slightest of favorites right now at -115. Definitely a line to monitor as the day moves along. We are also given a half run shave off the ATLvsCOL tilt down to a nice and safe 7 o/u.
