10 Bold Predictions For 2026 Fantasy Baseball

Spring Training is in full swing, drafts are underway, and the 2026 fantasy baseball season is almost here. That means it’s time to put some stakes in the ground that will either age like fine wine or haunt me until next season…

These are my ten bold predictions for the upcoming season, ranging from bounce-backs, prospect breakouts, and some head-to-head showdowns between rookies and vets. Most of these are fueled by data, others by gut feeling, and a few by a dangerous combination of both.

1) Mookie Betts: Returns Top-20 Value

The former MVP did not have “the juice” last season, and I will shamelessly blame it on him losing 15-20 pounds during the Dodgers’ trip to Japan in mid-March. Mookie Betts claims to have caught a stomach bug upon arriving in Japan. This resulted in a quick turnaround back home, as he did not participate in the two-game series against the Chicago Cubs.

Betts was cleared to play by Opening Day, then proceeded to produce his worst offensive season to date. His 104 wRC+ was the lowest he had posted since 2017 (107 wRC+), and his .732 OPS was his lowest ever by a significant margin (also, his first below .800). This season from hell was still productive, just well below Betts’ standards. His plate discipline did not take a hit, and he finished in the top 100 of Razzball’s season-long player rater (94th) with 20 HR, 95 runs, 82 RBI, 8 SB, and a .258 batting average.

Playing in the Dodgers’ offense can fix a LOT for struggling players who are not completely out of their depth. The run and RBI opportunities will remain plentiful, especially with Betts projected to hit third this season behind Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.

2) Michael Harris II: Top-12 OF

THIS IS THE YEAR HE BOUNCES BACK, TRUST ME PLEASE I BEG OF YOU.

Okay, that, but somewhat serious. Michael Harris II profiles as a near-elite fantasy asset… he just has not produced as one over the past two seasons. Part of this is nagging injuries and bad luck; the other part is that the offense has been missing its fearless leader, Ronald Acuna Jr., at the top of the order.

Harris II is a good hitter, I swear. He is still capable of a near-.300 average as he accomplished in his rookie and sophomore campaigns, but we have to give him grace. The past two seasons have displayed a decline for him. However, if you wash your eyes somewhat and look at him through a fresh lens, we are not that far removed from his incredible 2022 and 2023 seasons. Also, he averages 22 home runs and 21 stolen bases per 162 games. There is a “floor” here for Razzball’s 130th-ranked player last year.

The offense is healthy entering the season (sans the suspended Profar), and there is some regression at play with Harris II underperforming his expected stats the past two seasons. He was egregious in the first half last season, but made up for it in the second half.

Harris II slashed .299/.315/.530 after the All-Star break. He hit 14 of his 20 home runs in this span, despite 95 fewer plate appearances than the first half. Split seasons can be misleading, but plenty of regression is in play for Harris II, including this season.

3) Kevin McGonigle Finishes Higher Than Konnor Griffin

Konnor Griffin’s tools are “louder” than McGonigle’s tools. Griffin has more power, is faster, and plays the field better. However, McGonigle is the better hitter right now.

Konnor Griffin in Double-A last season:

98 PA / 175 wRC+

7.1% BB / 21.7% K

.333/.415/.527

.403 BABIP

Kevin McGonigle in Double-A last season:

206 PA / 162 wRC+

16% BB / 12.6% K

.245/.369/.550

.230 BABIP

McGonigle’s plate discipline is much further along than Griffin’s, and he makes hard contact more often. Despite a cavern between their respective BABIPs last season (a stat we know is largely swayed by batted ball luck), they were nearly equal in wRC+ at the same level. Griffin is highly unlikely to run a BABIP in the .400 range in the MLB, while McGonigle, like most hitters, can expect his closer to .300 in a full season

Age plays a big factor here, with McGonigle one year older, but that goes back to this prediction coming for this season. Griffin is the better long-term fantasy bet, particularly due to his speed. Also, Griffin is fine to select in drafts given his relative upside and the chance he is good enough to hit regardless.

4) Gerrit Cole Finishes Higher Than Zack Wheeler

Cole is now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery, while Zack Wheeler is six months removed from thoracic outlet surgery to remove a rib. TOS isn’t always a death sentence, but the diagnosis should send a shiver down any fan’s spine. Several former star starters have undergone TOS surgery. Matt Harvey, Chris Carpenter, and Stephen Strasburg are among them. None of the three made it back to the majors successfully, if at all, and all were in their mid-30s, just like Wheeler.

That said, there are pitchers who have found success after TOS. Alex Cobb, Matt Harrison, Mike Foltynewicz, Merrill Kelly, and Josh Beckett all pitched effectively following their diagnoses. Unfortunately, the only one who sustained multiple productive years after age 30 was Merrill Kelly.

Meanwhile, Cole’s injury and surgery are much more common, but his return is expected later. Cole is throwing bullpens and hitting up to his typical velocity. The Yankees planned to slow-play his return with a 60-Day Designated List assignment, but that does not preclude him from a stellar season. Tommy John is less damning than a decade ago. He is one of the best SPs of this era, just like Wheeler (and the same age). Cole was not as good as Wheeler in his most recent season, but that was bogged down due to nerve inflammation and an elbow edema, which potentially resulted in his need for Tommy John.

Wheeler has two things working in his favor: he was pitching at an elite level before surgery, and modern medicine continues to advance in treating these injuries. The lingering question is whether TOS caused by nerve compression carries a different prognosis than TOS caused by blood clots, and which is more manageable to recover from. The available data sample remains small regarding recovery from rib removal associated with TOS and the long-term complications it can present for pitchers.

At the moment, Wheeler is throwing bullpen sessions and could return by late April or early May. However, the risk is far too high at his cost, nearly 100 picks higher than Cole.

5) Ryan Walker: Top-10 RP

Walker was being drafted among the top-12 RPs last year despite the presence of former Giants closer Camilo Doval. After struggling early on, Walker was demoted. However, he regained his closer after Doval’s trade to New York and Randy Rodriguez’s injury in August.

Rodriguez should be favored for the role once he is back to full strength, but he is rehabbing from late-September Tommy John Surgery and may not be ready until 2027. Meanwhile, Walker is healthy and boasts a career 2.98 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, and 3.06 SIERA. He is a talented reliever who had a down 2025. There was no injury that affected Walker, and the Giants have not signed serious competition for the role.

While the Giants are not a serious contender, they have pieces to win games in 2026, allowing for Walker to close several. He will not hold the job long if he struggles, but all we can ask is the chance for him to regain the role in full. If he does struggle, the likely closing options would have to arrive via trade, given the Giants’ lack of bullpen depth.

6) Connelly Early: Top-30 SP

Early may have done this last season if the Red Sox had called him up sooner. He posted a 2.33 ERA, 2.35 xFIP, and 2.33 SIERA through 19.1 MLB innings. Small sample? Absolutely. However, he carried over his excellence from the minor leagues that season. Early posted a 2.51 ERA in Double-A last year and a 2.60 ERA in Triple-A. Both stints were backed by their peripherals, while he totaled 100.1 innings between them.

At the moment, Early does not have a rotation slot. Boston made concerted efforts to bolster their rotation this offseason with the additions of Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. Fortunately, they have Brayan Bello and Johan Oviedo slotted in as their fourth and fifth starters. Bello’s “breakout” 2025 is largely a fugazi with poor peripherals, while Oviedo is a project SP whose best season came as a part-time starter in 2022. While one of these two starters could maintain a rotation slot in 2026, I expect one to lose their job within a month.

Early has the stuff and production profile to become one of the league’s better starters. He has competition with fellow Red Sox SP Payton Tolle for a rotation slot, but Early is further along in his development as a starter.

7) Cam Smith: Top-30 OF

Expectations were sky high for Smith following a scorching Spring Training last year. He hit four HR in 15 games and cracked the Opening Day roster. Smith posted a meager 9 HR, 55 runs, 51 RBI, 8 SB, and .236 AVG through 136 games last season, yet managed to stay with the MLB club all year.

Ignoring a full, healthy season may seem unwise, but he was 22 and only had 32 games of minor league experience before his call-up. Smith never even played in Triple-A! He enters the 2026 season with a quieter spring and lower expectations. This should be better for the former first-round pick who was the prized return from Chicago for Kyle Tucker.

Smith’s limited minor-league data was very positive throughout 2024. Between each level, Smith displayed quality plate discipline and contact ability, which likely played a part in his expedited call to the bigs. He is no less the prospect he was once touted as after a mediocre rookie season.

8) Tyler O’Neill: Also, Top-30 OF (on a per-game basis)

This relies much more on health than talent. Tyler O’Neill is a very good hitter in the middle of a large contract who cannot stay on the field. 2025 marked O’Neill’s lowest total of games played since the COVID year. It was his fewest number of games in a full season ever.

After a top-150 ADP last season, O’Neill is left for dead in drafts due to his missed games and poor performance in 2025. However, with Jordan Westburg out for a few months, Jackson Holliday recovering from a broken hand, and the Orioles paying O’Neill $16.5 million yearly, there should be an everyday role to start the season.

His poor performance last year is largely overstated due to the sample. Furthermore, he posted a similar xwOBA (.360) as his stellar 2024 season in which he earned his contract. The Orioles have also bolstered their offense with the additions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, taking the pressure off of Tyler O’Neill to perform as an integral piece. Between these three, Gunnar Henderson starting the year healthy, the Rutschman/Basallo duo, and the aforementioned ailing hitters, there is a lot to like about Baltimore’s offense in 2026.

9) Didier Fuentes: Top-5 Rookie SP

The Braves have a fascinating SP prospect who experienced several bumps in 2025. Didier Fuentes was not ready for the show last season, but the Braves felt compelled to try, given the injuries to their starters. Through four starts (13 innings), Fuentes posted a 13.85 ERA with horrible peripherals. However, his final start was in Sacramento, a dying ground for all starters. This start felt more sacrificial than experimental, as Fuentes posted his shortest outing, with his worst overall output.

Fuentes enters 2026 with encouraging updates and strong performances throughout spring training. He rose through several levels of the minors within a single season before reaching the majors. His stellar profile across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A in 2025 showcases a high level of talent.

That said, patience is often required with young starters, particularly one who is still just 20 years old. Fuentes could be called up sooner rather than later, given Atlanta’s recurring rotation injuries. His biggest hurdle should be durability due to his stature (6′ 170lbs), but for a single season, and with his excellent fastball velocity, we could see a breakout.

10) Carter Jensen: Top-10 Catcher

Jensen just needs the playing time to undergo a breakout. He was an excellent hitter in the majors last season and throughout the minors (while extremely young for each level). His .403 wOBA through 20 MLB games was backed by a .447 xwOBA. We should not expect this to carry over directly, but with his contact profile, plate discipline, and improved home park dimensions, we are looking at “This Year’s Ben Rice”.

The Royals are even somewhat talented offensively between Jensen, Bobby Witt Jr, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, Sal Perez, and Maikel Garcia. There could be a healthy amount of runs and RBI for an everyday hitter in this lineup.

Back to playing time, there is no issue IF the Royals are logical. Sal Perez is 36 in May and only caught 92 games last year. The catching duties should be a fifty-fifty split between Perez and Jensen, while the other takes on DH appearances in the other games. This helps both stay off their knees and prevents them from degrading as the season progresses.

The doomsday scenario is some mix of Starling Marte and Lane Thomas at DH for their “veteran presence” if Jensen struggles, but that feels unlikely unless the struggles persist throughout the early season.