The first month of the season is in the books and we’ve seen some great baseball to this point. I expect tonight to be more of the same as we have a couple of established aces on the mound. An up-and-coming ace in Freddy Peralta, along with interesting stack options. Atlanta is the top stack choice. If you’re willing to take on risk, Brewers and Tigers are interesting options as well. Detroit has an interesting matchup against Martin Perez. However, it’s forecasted to rain leading up to the first pitch and could start in a delay. Milwaukee goes up against a familiar face in Chase Anderson, who seems to be on the decline.
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Starting Pitcher
Yu Darvish, SP: $12,200 – The chalk pick of the night in my estimation. However, Shane Bieber will draw a fair amount of ownership as well so don’t be scared off with ownership concerns. Darvish goes up against a Pirates team that owns the 3rd worst wRC+ in the league. Darvish has his typical elite self with 2.13 ERA, 32.9% k-rate. Elite pitcher, bad team, don’t overthink it if you can afford to pay up.
Freddy Peralta, SP: $9,000 – Freddy has recorded at least 7 k’s in each of his starts this year. This breaking ball he worked on over the winter seems to be legit. Allowing him to start realizing some of the potential he has some over the last couple of years. It is not the great match-up or ballpark for him but the Phillies are currently striking out 4th most in baseball. Which makes him a very high upside play.
Catcher/First Base
Jeimer Candelario, C/1B: $2,700 – This game could start in a rain delay and that will scare plenty of people away. That and the Tigers have been brutal offensively. Jeimer has been one of the lone bright spots for them. They put up a nice offensive performance last night and I like this match-up for Tigers righties.
Daniel Vogelbach, C/1B: $2,500 – I like the Brewers today against Chase Anderson. He’s struggled since the start of 2020 and has failed to get past the 5th inning in 2021. This bodes well for the Crew as the Phillies bullpen is one of the leagues’ worst.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $3,200 – Albies is currently on an 8-game hitting streak. The Braves as a team as starting to heat up at the plate as well. They go up against Erick Fedde, who has been respectable since his first start of the season. That first start was against the Braves, 1.2 IP with 5 ERs. Frankly, I don’t think Fedde’s ERA and K-rate gains we’ve seen are legit. His walk rate is up and his SwStr %, CSW%, and batted ball profiles are all right around his career norms.
Jonathan Schoop, 2B: $2,300 – Pay attention to the forecast as it gets close to lock as it is supposed to rain leading up to the game. I like the Tigers here as they’ll be low-owned against a mediocre lefty in Martin Perez. He doesn’t miss many bats and lefties tend to struggle in Fenway with the green monster in left.
Third Base
Austin Riley, 3B: $2,400 – Arguably the hottest hitter in baseball. He’s quietly jumped his average up to .315 and is climbing up the batting order. I expect him to keep rolling in a soft match-up.
Alex Bregman, 3B: $3,200 – Jordan Montgomery has struggled a bit since his first start of the season. Bregman has 5 hits including two homers in his last four games and gets a scuffling lefty in a great hitters park. I don’t like the idea of stacking Astros tonight because of how good the Yankees bullpen is. But I think there is still profit to be made here and Bregman is my top choice of the group.
Short Stop
Luis Urias, SS: $2,500 – Urias put up some incredible slash lines in the minors. It’s never really translated to the majors to this point. He currently has a .785 OPS, which is slightly above league average. He’s swinging at more pitches in the zone, less outside the zone, and hitting the ball much harder, 43.4% hard-hit rate. It feels like he’s on the verge of a heater and he gets a flyball pitcher in Chase Anderson and a nice hitters park tonight.
Trea Turner, SS: $3,800 – This will be Max Fried‘s first start coming off a hamstring injury. He finds himself with a new battery mate as Travis d’Arnaud is on the 60-day IL. Fried was scuffling before he got injured, and there could be some growing pains with a new man hanging the signs. Couple that with Turner being one of the shining stars to start this season and I see a good night ahead of him.
Outfield
Avisail Garcia, OF: $2,800 – He seems to be fully out of his slump as he’s working a 6-game hitting streak. He gets a nice match-up in Chase Anderson at Citizens Bank Park. Which was the 2nd best park for right-handed power in 2020.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $4,300- Acuna has been hot since opening day, storming to a league-leading 10 homers. I like the Braves tonight as I mentioned and their elite lead-off hitter is starting to get support behind him as well.
Austin Meadows, OF: $3,100 – He hasn’t hit for average thus far but his underlying number suggests that will come up a bit. He does have 7 homers thus far, including two last night. The power swing still plays and I don’t expect him to garner much attention with Ohtani on the mound either.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,700 – Don’t look now but Stanton has been red hot the last two weeks. Bumping his average all the way up to .297. He has at least 3 hits in 4 of his last 5 games.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Light rain might delay the start of the Tigers at Red Sox game but they should be able to get the game in.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Orioles (John Means) at Mariners O/U (Yusei Kikuchi) 7.5 runs scored- Take the over. I like Means, but his 100% LOB and .181 BABIP are not sustainable. Kikuchi was something of a darling during draft season. His command leaves something to be desired and his hard-hit rate is 44.7%. I don’t think this game will be a slugfest but 7.5 is too low.
