Did you enjoy your time away from DFS during the All Star Break? It’s time to pull yourself away from wandering into traffic to catch Pokemon and back to grinding out DFS wins. The time off is a good time to look back and see what has worked and what hasn’t worked so far this season. Have you been withdrawing like a baller? Then keep on doing what you do. If you’ve been bleeding money to the sharks though, it’s time to take a step back and evaluate the process. Try something different for a few weeks and see if results improve. It’s really hard in this game to know what changes are making a positive impact on results and what can just be chalked up to variance. For example, I had a great April and May, followed by one of my worst months I can remember in June. Nothing changed, in fact, it’s the same process I’ve used for the past three successful DFS seasons. July has been a bounce back, but the point is; sometimes, you just go cold. Try not to panic too much and watch that bankroll. Bankroll management is a HUGE part of long term success in this game and that might be the most important part of the process to nail down. Don’t get too high after a win and suddenly start playing in $100 tournaments. You should scale back after a string of losses until you get off the schnide though. It’s not an exact science, but we’re here to help if you have any questions. Enough jibber-jabber, let’s get into the picks for Saturday’s slate of games and help you start off the second half with a win:
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Mike Foltynewicz, SP: $7,100 – Just to be clear, I’d also use Chad Bettis ($6,000) from this game if the price relief was neeeded. I wouldn’t pair him with Folty of course, as that caps your upside with only one pitcher getting points for the win, but I’d use either guy that struck my fancy. I’m recommending Folty for his K-upside. We’ve got two bad offenses here in what should be a game that sets baseball back at least 75 years. It’s the Rockies on the road vs. the Braves anywhere. I’m already drooling over Jon Gray on Sunday, but Saturday, I think it’s Folty’s time to shine. He already showed a glimpse of the potential in a place I expected him to struggle, at the White Sox, where he K’d 10 and walked none. As is the case with most hard-throwers (Folty’s average FB is 95 mph, can top out at 99-100) control has been the struggle. We all know that when things click for these types though, that’s when things get real. I’ll take the White Sox game as a sign and see if he can repeat against a much worse offense tonight.
Matt Shoemaker, SP: $7,700 – Speaking fo those White Sox, maybe that offense isn’t as great as I think. *Checks team OPS* I was right, I’ve been giving them a little too much credit after all. Remove them from the Cell to boot and they’re on par with Philly and Tampa Bay. Well then, I’m all about Shoemaker tonight facing the pale house in LA. I’ve long been a fan of Shoemaker and been burned because of that so many times. I love guys that don’t create trouble for themselves with walks and that’s Shoemaker’s MO. His current walk rate of 2 is a little worse than his rookie year (but better than last season) but his K rate of 9.0 is better. That difference of 7 and to quote Grey: “A pitcher with a 9+ K-rate and a 2 walk rate is on the short list for Cy Young.” Bam!
Trevor Bauer, SP: $9,600 – Either the Stream-O-Nator woke up on the wrong side of the bed after the All Star Break or the Twins turned into the ‘27 Yankees during the days off. Bauer is buried in the negative values and I can’t figure out why. Sure, the walk rate is still high for Bauer (~3) and the K-rate isn’t elite (~8), but it’s not like he’s been bupkis. Outside of Nunez and Sano the Twins aren’t sporting a lot that scares me. They are perfectly mediocre and I’ll take that for Bauer in what looks to be his breakout season.
Evan Gattis, C: $2,600 – #CheapCatcherLife
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $3,600 – With Mike Pelfrey sporting an excellent (for hitters) FIP of 5.21 and Hosmer looking at setting a new career high in HRs (13 currently, 19 is high) I like his chances to add to that total tonight.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $3,500 – Danny Duffy’s been great, but come on. Miguel Cabrera for this price is just plain silly.
Neil Walker, 2B: $3,100 – Went blam-o last night and I like his chances to stay hot against the young Philly pitching. I do wonder who might be out there for Philly come September.
Trea Turner, 2B/SS: $3,300 – This is the price range I’m living in tonight, that and the cheap pitchers should leave room to pay up at OF and other spots if need be. I really hope the Nats keep playing Turner and letting him bat leadoff. It makes sense though, so chances are it won’t happen.
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $3,400 – Gerrit Cole wasn’t even pitching that wonderfully before his injury, now toss in a long layoff and his first start back could get ugly in a hurry. I’m not in love with many of the top options tonight and I don’t want to recommend a play facing one of my recommended pitchers. That leaves some slim pickins’ and so, I’ll double dip in the Nationals well with Rendon vs. Cole.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $3,200 – Longoria is part of the 4 o’clock kick offs as the BAL@TB game features the odd ball 6 PM EST start time. You’ll have to play the all day slate or the early only for him to be included in the player pool. Boy oh boy has he hit Chris Tillman though: 17/57 (.298) with 7…SEVEN homers.
Didi Gregorius, SS: $4,300 – Didi En Fuego. The Yankees get to face Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. Eduardo has been trying to get by with only throwing his fastball and change-up and it shockingly hasn’t worked out well for him. Eduardo has the upside to shut a team down but until he shows some secondary pitches this year, I’m avoiding at all costs. There’s also the little issue of pitch tipping. Combine this with a hot hitter like Didi and you could have some fireworks in the Bronx.
Adam Jones, OF: $3,100 – Another one for the earlier starting slate and interestingly, another great BvP guy. Versus Matt Moore, Adam Jones is 12/31 (.387) with 3 HRs and 2 SBs. Sounds like ingredients for a nice plate of slam and legs to me.
Brett Eibner, OF: $3,700 – Who? I don’t know either, but he’s facing the gas can that is Pelfrey and has occasional been featured in primo lineup positions. You just have to keep your eye on that KC lineup card.
Colby Rasmus, OF: $4,300 – I could have touched on this in the Gattis blurb, but wanted to keep that short and sweet. The Astros are facing Hisashi Iwakuma who’s fastball has returned a pretty substantial negative value so far this year. Pitchf/x had his fastball last year at an 8.9, where o is average, this year it’s a -1.2. Something is clearly not right. With a guy struggling that badly with his fastball is coming to town, good fastball hitters like Rasmus and Gattis have to be licking their chops.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The East coast could have some issues today. There’s a chance for moisture in Washington, Philly and Atlanta. Keep an eye on those radars. Everything looks pretty minor right now, but it may be enough to push me off Folty if things start looking ugly.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The big favorites of the day are less than inspiring. There’s Samardzija at the Padres (-175) and Wainwright at home against the Marlins (-160), both of which I’d rather pass on. Matt Shoemaker is my guy today and he’s set as a -155 favorite, 3rd biggest on the board. The highest over/under today is a tie at 9.5 runs between the BOS@NYY and MIL@CIN games. Vegas expects a lot of offense today, there’s not a single game with an over/under under 8 runs. It’s a good day to find some cheap pitchers and load up on offense.
