Whoa this system is deep. And I don’t mean the Swinging Friar’s “No Man Is An Island” kind of deep. I mean it took me a while to get to a player that didn’t have a 50 overall value slapped on them. I counted eight Padres in my Top 100 for 2019, which is pretty crazytown. San Diego has a nice balance of good hitting prospects and good pitching prospects, high ceilings and high floors. It really runs the gamut and should be a fun system to follow for the next year or two.

Grade A

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS | Age: 20 | ETA: 2019
A big-time offensive talent who held is own as a 19-year-old at Double-A last season, Tatis is everything you want in a fantasy prospect. He has the potential to impact all five standard cats with plus hit, power, and speed. He’ll most likely spend most of this season in the upper minors, but we could see him late summer/early fall with a full go at the starting shortstop gig in the spring of 2020. One thing to watch for this year – his K-rate of 27% in 2018 was pretty high.

2. Luis Urias, 2B/SS | Age: 21 | ETA: 2019
It’s easier to write about prospects who’ve had some MLB appearances already. Urias is one of those – he had over 50 plate appearances with the Padres last season. He’s currently projected to hit second for San Diego in 2019, which bodes well for his counting stats. He’s a plus hitter with good patience and enough pop for 10-12 homers. He’s an average runner, so I don’t think he’ll impact steals. Steamer has him pegged for a .248 average, nine homers, and five swipes in a full season of plate appearances. I’d take the over on all three. Looks like Grey is too.

3. Francisco Mejia, C | Age: 23 | ETA: 2019
Another near-lock for a gig with the big club right out of spring training, Mejia is the type of catching prospect we’re allowed to actually care about due to his offensive ceiling. No, his ceiling isn’t a churlish boor. Offensive as like, he could make an impact in both average and power. Problem is, he’s currently slated as a backup to Hedges. If I’m Hedging my bets, that means Mejia might at best see 40% of the starts without an injury to the main squeeze. More likely less. Can I root for someone to get hurt? That seems wrong. More from Grey on Mejia’s 2019 outlook here.

4. MacKenzie Gore, LHP | Age: 19 | ETA: 2021
This starts a mini-tier of pitchers in this system with frontline potential. Gore leads the way. He’s a first round pick from 2017 (3rd overall) with above average pitches across the board and plus command. He paired an 11 K/9 with a 2.7 BB/9 in 2018 despite having some blister issues that limited him to around 60 innings in A-ball.

5. Chris Paddack, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2019
Paddack has a double-plus change and plus command. Splitting time between High-A and Double-A in 2018, he pretty much made opposing hitters his b**** – whiffing 15 per nine and walking just over one per nine. He should be on all radars, even redrafts, as he’s likely just an injury or string of poor outings away from a call to San Diego.

6. Luis Patino, RHP | Age: 19 | ETA: 2022
Patino pairs a plus heater with a plus slider, which gives him some nice strikeout potential. He’s a ways off from the bigs though, so you have to pair the upside with the potential risks. He spent all of 2018 in A-ball, where he struck out nearly 11 per nine and walked just 2.6 per nine. Great upside play for a rebuilding fantasy franchise.

7. Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS | Age: 19 | ETA: 2022
80-grade tools are rare to come by, and that’s Edwards’s speed. He was a 2018 draft pick, and in his first taste of pro ball he swiped 22 bags in 159 plate appearances (caught just once). He also hit over .340 across two levels. That’s what you can expect as the ceiling – major impact in steals with a decent average and run totals. Classic table setter/burner.

8. Michel Baez, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2019
Like Paddack, Baez has a non-zero chance to throw some innings this year in San Diego. He reached Double-A in 2018, and that’s likely where he’ll start off the 2019 season. His 2018 numbers weren’t quite as dominant as 2017, but still solid. He struck out nearly 10 per nine in 105 innings pitched. It will be interesting to see how he fares with a full season in the upper minors. I’m not as high on Baez as the other arms listed above, but I think he’s a decent bet to eat innings in the middle of a rotation.

9. Josh Naylor, 1B | Age: 21 | ETA: 2020
Naylor is a guy that kept getting bumped and ended up just outside my Top 100, but you could make a case for him to be there, and even ahead of Baez and Edwards here. Naylor had a really nice 2018 campaign in Double-A – hitting .297 with 17 homers and nearly identical walk and strikeout rates (~12%). The concern here is that despite his big raw power, 2018 was the first time he’d hit over 15 bombs. So it appears as though Naylor is willing to trade some homers for average. That’s fine, but it dings him as a fantasy first baseman, where you really depend on 20+ homers from that position.


Grade B

10. Esteury Ruiz, 2B | Age: 19 | ETA: 2022
Ruiz is a solid player across the board, with above average pop and speed and the potential to impact every offensive category. I think his floor is high – a bat first utility type that’s rosterable in deeper formats. The ceiling is still really high as well though, and we’ll learn more about his approach this year in High-A – maybe even some appearances in Double-A in late summer.


2019 Index

  1. Ante Galic says:
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    Mike!!!

    Great SpecS report!

    a. Thanks for the Paddack heads up. Would you draft him in a 5X5 RCL redraft with say the last pick?

    b. Well done to Punxutawney Phil yesterday. So hopefully spring will come sooner. Hope you are staying warm or did I miss it and the polar vortex never got to your area?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks!
      a. Nah, not unless there’s murmurs in ST. More likely midsummer (June/July)
      b. polar vortex came here indeed, but it’s a beautiful 50 degrees here today! Crazy!

  2. Mustache Ride says:
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    How far off this list is Anderson Espinoza? He was a top 20 overall prospect as a teenager before Tommy John…now he is due back from surgery, but rarely gets mentioned in any Padres’ prospect write-ups.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      He’s right there with Baez, just a victim of a deep system. Top 15 for sure, maybe even 11 or 12.

  3. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Padres are stacked. If they didn’t waste a fortune on Hosmer last year, they already had Myers there and a ton of solid OF’s, they could have made a run at Bryce and Manny.

    I ‘d also like to know your thoughts on Anderson Espinoza, as well as Cal Quantril.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      For sure. Espinoza has great stuff just needs innings to climb back up the ladder. Quantril I’m not as jazzed about…average pitches across the board, not really big strikeout stuff.

  4. Big league choo says:
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    10 team H2H 5×5 dynasty

    My Goldy/marte for lindor/Robbie ray

    Is that fair? I have a lot of young talented OF don’t mind slightly overpaying but not sure if I’m way overpaying or underpaying. $projection I’m overpaying slightly 53$-46$

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Tough one…I’d want Lindor though.

  5. Andy says:
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    Everyone is sleeping on Logan Allen, kid is going to put up solid fantasy numbers and soon! Great article!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks man…good sleeper pick!

  6. When Buying Gifts Don't Confuse the Diaries of Hans Frank and Anne Frank says:
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    14 team keep 9, 4 of them pitchers, with max 3 SP, max 3 RP. the other 5 are hitters, max 2 OF, other than OF all hitting keepers have to differ from your other hitter keepers, but you can use whatever eligibility a player has for his keeper spot. h2h with OPS, holds, QS, total bases and OBP over AVG.

    my options see if which are the best:
    P: wheeler, kimbrel, hand, and one of ryu/skaggs/morton/hill (haven’t looked over pitcher rankings yet for this last, likely easily answered, unless keeper changes it) OR otani as a pitcher (espn he’s one player that you can only use at P or hitter per day, for this year clearly only a hitter, but for keeper stuff he could be either) or a 3rd RP with giles.

    hitters: goldy (1B), rhysus (OF), stanton (OF or DH), then 2 out of muncy (3B), andujar (3B) gone varnish (SS), b.lowe (2B), l.gurriel (SS or 2B), mallex (OF). if stanton is put at DH otani would only be kept as pitcher

    so it’s looking like: goldy, rhysus, stanton (DH), mallex (OF), then one of muncy (3B) andjuar (3B) and peraza (SS) for hitters and wheeler, otani, hand, kimbrel for pitchers. what you think?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’d go Andujar, Wheeler

      • When Buying Gifts Don't Confuse the Diaries of Hans Frank and Anne Frank says:
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        @Mike: that’s you, grey and the OPS rater (the latter big time difference actually) on andujar over muncy then.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Excellent

  7. Epstein's Mother says:
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    Prospectus leaves Baez off the Dynasty101…you guys leave Morejon off the Padres T11…they’re two different pitchers, guyz!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Whoops~!

  8. Milarky says:
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    Hey Mike, I’ve asked you a similar question before, but his is a different spin on it. Grey’s rank of Severino prompted a re-think. I have prospect keeper question that impacts my SP keepers. We get to keep 3 prospects for up to 3 years and my choices are a bit complicated. I can keep two pitchers, who are currently Kluber and Severino. But here’s my pool of prospects of which I need to choose 3:

    Buehler (last year as prospect keeper)
    Tucker (last year as prospect keeper)
    Hiura (2nd last year as prospect keeper)
    Whitley (2nd last year as prospect keeper)
    Trammell (2nd last year as prospect keeper)

    When I first asked your thoughts on which keepers to keep, you suggested Buehler, Tucker and Hiura. Should I consider dropping Severino and moving Buehler into my “normal” pitching keepers along with Kluber in order to be able to keep both Whitley and Hiura (in addition to Tucker)?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      So basically dropping Severino for Whitley and Hiura? Yeah I’d do that.

      • Milarky says:
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        @Mike: Well, based on your previous advice when I asked the question only in the context of which three prospects I should keep, you said you’d go with Buehler, Tucker and Hiura (meaning I’d drop Whitley and Trammell). But then it occurred to me that if I dropped Severino and moved Buehler to a normal pitching keeper instead of a prospect, then I could keep Whitley.

        SO basically the question is should I drop Severino for Whitley in this scenario. Is Whitley worth this gamble?

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Oh ok I get it now. Sorry! I’d keep Sev over Whitley.

Comments are closed.