Fantasy Baseball Advice

What a turd baby of fantasy baseball advice Karabell laid the other day when he revealed his new rankings. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that he ranked Webb number one overall? In his recap of his rankings, he hits upon Edinson Volquez, someone he absolutely believed in a few weeks ago. Naturally, after seeing Volquez pitch superbly for the last few weeks, Karabell is moving Volquez up his rankings, right? Nope, just as Volquez starts to look like he’s the real deal, Karabell bumps him down the list.

After a few weeks, he says Jay Bruce is going to be this year’s Braun. Yes, I realize Jay Bruce is the only known offspring of Superman and Wonder Woman, but Braun’s numbers last year were a once in a lifetime deal. To say a hitter, who majored in striking out in the minors, is going to match Braun is dangerous hyperbole.

Later, when Karabell says he’s totally on board with Josh Hamilton, it scares the beejezus out of me, because I have Hamilton on a few teams where Josh has carried the offense and I need him to keep producing. Why would that giant melonhead jinx Hamilton? Ugh. Don’t worry, we shouldn’t pay too much credence to any of this because he listed Nate McLouth as a possible sell-high guy. That’s right, a week after he said McLouth would win his fictitious Fantasy MVP. Hey, Karabell, go get your shinebox!

With two home runs yesterday, Ryan Braun is up to 20 HRs. Not sure I mentioned this before, but I traded for The Hebrew Hammer a couple of weeks ago. (If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!) I traded Carl Crawford for Braun. Rudy called me all kinds of names about this one. Topped with, “I’d say you’ve sunk to a new low but trading Verlander to (so-and-so) for Street (two years ago) when (so-and-so) was 3 starts away from being maxed out was the lowest…” Honestly, I enjoy pissing off my friends at fantasy baseball, but I wasn’t sure why Rudy was mad about this one. I mean, Crawford for Braun is fair, no? Well, turns out the team I traded Crawford to didn’t need steals. Know what? I don’t care. The team’s owner has been playing with us for a long time. He’s proven himself a worthy adversary. If he wants to trade for more steals while sporting Reyes, Pierre and Bourn, it’s his prerogative. (I don’t need permission to make my fantasy baseball decisions….It’s my prerogative…) So does this mean I suddenly endorse Braun? I placed him 22 overall; I never didn’t endorse him (sorry, double negatives hurt my brain, too). I just thought Braun was going too high. Well, on that team, I needed power because Hafner was a have-not, so I went out and got Braun. Am I suddenly down on Crawford? I am starting to think the power may never come and I’m not a huge fan of speed only guys, so there’s that. The lesson that should be taken away? Every player has a place on some team. Except Ryan Zimmerman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chase Headley – Watched him bat three times yesterday. Saw nothing that exciting. Seems like he likes to take a pitch even if it means striking out. Reminded me of Jeremy Hermida in this respect. This was one game; this is by no means a ‘pert evaluation.

Manny Parra – 7 shutout innings, 5/4 K/BB. Confidence level looks like it’s climbing. (I don’t know what that means. I heard Bill Schroeder say it and Bill Schroeder is a knowledgeable color man.) Know what helps a confidence level? Pitching against the Blue Jays.

Jose Reyes -Left with what Jose Mota (not Molina) deemed a minor injury. Word from a different (more reliable) source is he might have strained a hamstring. Ugh… *sticking head in oven*

Brad Penny – Hit the DL yesterday. Here’s what Alyssa Milano’s MLB blog update said today, “I told him to stop eating all of those fried foods and late nite meals at Mel’s Diner. When I was preparing for the roll (sic) of Charlotte Wells in Embrace of the Vampire, I ate only soba noodles for 2 months straight! Do u think I wanted to eat so much soba noodles? Well, actually…. Yeah! I did! (Wouldn’t u?) But even if I thought soba noodles tasted gross, I’d still ate (sic) them if I thought they’d help me stay in shape. BTW, I wasn’t the one who gave you herpes! L8 and <3″

Chad Billingsley – I want to draft Billingsley right now for 2009, 2010 and 2011 with an option for 2012. In the same blog entry, Alyssa Milano said this about Billingsley, “Blame Penny for the herpes. Sorry! L8 and <3 * 2″

Johnny Cueto – Not sure why his Ks are so down. Might have something to do with scouting reports, but I think it’s more to do with him falling behind and going for contact. There’s also a strong chance that Dusty Baker is somehow responsible. Dusty, “Cueto, I will throw you in back-to-back games for the ‘mainder of the season if you try to strike people out. I’m not joking. Call up Mark Prior, he will tell you.”

Brandon Webb – Going through what the people in the biz call, “a dead arm period.” If this period is anything like my girlfriend’s, it’s best to act like he’s fine and NOT bloated.

Justin Duchscherer – Of course, Dook-sheer pitched well. Apparently, that’s what Dook-Sheer do. Needed only 94 pitches to get through 8 innings.

Jeff Clement – The Mariners called him up, so he got in the game, right? Nope. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners!

Brandon Morrow – Making the best of the opportunity, converted a save with a perfect ninth. Putz hadn’t pitched a perfect inning in June.

Ian Snell – Snell got O-Cab to ground out to open the game. The rest didn’t look so good.

Carlos Quentin – Batting .170 in June. Where’s April/May Carlos? We want him back.

Livan Hernandez – Movie trailer guy, “In a world where Livan Hernandez looks like a good replacement for Johan Santana… He’ll baffle you with his eephus! He’ll take his time with each pitch! He’ll avoid the foul line when walking off the field! George Lopez is Livan Hernandez!”

Brandon Lyon – Kazaam’d up the joint for 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

Halladay is the vet who averages 10 innings a game. AJ Burnett is the high-paid free agent with filthy stuff. McGowan is the prospect that’s on the verge of greatness, but Marcum has the best ERA, WHIP and K rate. That’s right, Shaun Marcum! Wait, who? Um, he’s from Missouri. You know, Marcum! He’s prone to the home run ball and… Let’s see… He’s averaging about one baserunner every seven starts. He has a ridiculous BABIP that’s under .200… (Grey, please no numbers!) Okay, sorry, grasshopper. So what are some predictions? Marcum is a solid #3 starter that should have between a 3.50 and 4.00 ERA the rest of the way. *nodding off* I’m sorry. What? Oh, Marcum! Right! Wow, Marcum is boring, right? He’s throwing a .87 WHIP through May and I can’t get excited about him at all. Maybe it’s because he’s from Missouri. Where is Missouri? Do they have TV there? Isn’t that Cardinals country? Why am I talking about the Cardinals? Cause Marcum’s really boring. But he can be helpful. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brandon Webb – Has dropped 2 in a row since the 9 game winning streak. If you convince someone in your league that he’s going to lose 7 more in a row, go for it. He’s as good a bet as there is for a starting pitcher right now. Worthy of a straight-up trade with just about any hitter not picked in the 1st round.

Jair Jurrjens – He was removed after 4 and 2/3 innings when he was up 2 runs. Sometimes a Cox yanking doesn’t lead to a happy ending.

Melky Cabrera – After a great April, Melky has been awful in May. Figure he’ll be in-between for the rest of the year which makes him a 15/15 OF who varies from 5th OF to droppable in most leagues.

Jason Bergmann – It’s hard to believe in anyone in Washington, but we’re fast becoming believers in Bergmann. 3 straight scoreless outings with 22 Ks in 19.2 IP. He was a reliever in the minors so it’s hard to project his stats, but he pitched OK last year in his first stint with the Nationals. Ride the streak and see where it takes you.

Corey Patterson – We suggest he move in with Corey Feldman and Corey Haim. They can all star in Lost Boys 2. (BTW, after offhandedly mentioning Sidney Pollack in Sunday night’s post, I wouldn’t stand too close to the Two Coreys today.)

Chase Headley – We told you about Ian Stewart 10 ten days prior to his call-up. We told you about Jay Bruce eight days prior. Headley should be up soon too. So if you’re still holding onto him, keep holding onto him. Let’s reevaluate in a week. (BTW, I don’t think everyone needs Headley, but if you’re weak at 3rd or corner, you might.)

Cristian Guzman – I feel like he could go 100/40/.330/40 and no one would ever pick him up and, next year, no one would draft him. It would be an interesting experiment to see if Cristian Guzman hit 27 home runs in a month, how long it would take for people to think he was for real and pick him up. I’d say he’d still be at 33% owned at the end of the month. Am I saying this because I think he’s worth a pickup and no one is because of preconceived notions? Oh, heck no. I just philosophize about mock drafts and fantasy expertise; you can call me a White-Mustachioed Socrates.

Chad Tracy – No one likes a red-headed stepchild. All he’s going to do is steal ABs from Co-Jack and Mark Reynolds.

Salomon Torres – If you feel like it’s a broken record, I apologize, but he can be the closer for two months. Team decisions about who is getting paid more (Backne) might affect the outcome, but don’t think Torres can’t do the job. “This was paid for by the committee to avoid a closer by committee.”

Ryan Spilborghs – A Corky Thatcher-looking skull that looks like it can be bought at Spencer Gifts is an alien God? Karen Allen looked like she’s too old to be dating Tommy Lee Jones forget Indiana Jones. Shia LaDouce is a tough-ass greaser? Why not just put a comb in Jonathan Lipnicki’s back pocket? *realizing it’s Spilborghs, not Spielberg* Oh, um, Spilborghs has been batting fourth with Holliday out. If he’s facing a lefty, you should absolutely have him in your lineup.

Chase Utley/Ryan Howard – I’m only surprised when one of them doesn’t hit a home run.

Kosuke Fukudome – Lately, he’s been like Ichiro without the speed or Matsui without the power. Either way, he’s in a serious funkudome.

Nick Markakis – I am Sparkakis!

Gary Sheffield – Oblique spasms. Perhaps they were caused by the fork poking him to check if he’s done.

Straight from Girardi, “The process has started, converting Joba to a starter, and tonight was the first [step] of extending him a little bit and we’ll continue to do it, getting him up to where he can throw enough pitches.” The Yanks stretching out Joba to get him ready to start by pitching 2 innings in a blowout? Sounds like the line of every Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes start. I hear Joba’s also been seen fist pumping in the bullpen building up his exuberance stamina. Personally, I don’t have him on one team, but I can’t wait to see what he can do over 6 innings. And by six innings, I mean maybe 7 innings, but he’s not going to be throwing over 100 pitches until the Yankees lose in the playoffs. So what kind of numbers can we predict for him? I’d give him basically the same line he would’ve had if he stayed in middle relief with a chance for more wins and probably a higher ERA. So 120 IP/8 Wins/4.00 ERA/1.25 WHIP/110 Ks or just think Lincecum last year. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Salomon Torres – Saves vultures, swoop there it is. Wave your hands in the air, shake your derriere. Whoomp chak a laka chack a laka chak a laka chak a (repeat 4 times) (BTW, I took poetic license by leaving the accent off derriere. I thought DC, the Brain Supreme, would’ve wanted it that way. And, if you’re out there Tag Team, I’m still waiting for the follow-up. Fo’ real!) Salomon Torres was a serviceable closer on the Pirates until overworked by Tracy and then he got All About Eve’d by Capps, but Torres could take the closing job for two months and run with it. What, you don’t like saves?

John Smoltz – He’s due to return within the next week. I’ve already covered this ground, but if you don’t need a closer, you should be moving him prior to him returning.

Jair Jurrjens – I’m going to Curacao to visit Jurrjens’s birthplace and where he learned to throw so magnificently. Who’s with me?!

Ryan Howard – I think he’ll have the most home runs going into the All-Star break. I know, not a huge limb, but what if I said this last week? See what I mean about getting guys when they are seemingly crizzappy?

Jeff Francoeur -  A home run and four RBIs. Again, buy low, sell high. School’s Out, Alice Cooper.

Moises Alou – Left yesterday’s game with a leg cramp then went in the locker room and peed on it.

Dana Eveland – He pitched a 3-hit gem for the A’s against the 1st place Devil Rays. Look out for newly expanded editions of Moneyball for Christmas!

Cody Ross – You think whenever he has to put his last name first he confuses which one is which?

Brandon Webb – Brandon Webb loses in Florida. East coast old people heckle him with, “Suck on a lemon,” West Coast retirees mutter “Fiddlesticks.”

Al Reyes – Speaking of retirees, Troy Percival is feeling tightness in his hamstring.

Johnny Cueto – I’ve been one of the biggest Cueto apologists, so I could sit here and tell you it was windy and the Dodgers scored on a wild pitch, a passed ball, a squeeze and a pickoff that was thrown away, but tonight Cueto didn’t have his control and he looked severely rattled. The resin bag didn’t make you throw the ball away, Cueto. What I did enjoy in this game was Vin Scully. I don’t want to get all mushy here, but when he kicks the bucket, I’m going to be sad. Hopefully, I didn’t jinx him. Keep on, keepin’ on, Scully!

Chris Young – Pujols hit a liner back at him and broke his nose. If Young would’ve ducked, it probably would’ve been a home run.

Jarrod Washburn - He made Rudy’s night with a Razzterful line of 2.1 IP with 9 ER and 12H. That’s a 34.71 ERA and 5.14 WHIP.

Sidney Ponson/Bartolo Colon – Sidney Ponson and Bartolo Colon both won last night. Jake Peavy is on the DL. Jake = 0, Fatman = 2

Alex Rodriguez/Chipper Jones/Milton Bradley – Arod’s hitting home runs, Chipper Jones is leaving because of injuries and Milton Bradley is leaving games because of ejections. All seems right in the baseball world.

Jack Cust – 4 at-bats. 2 home runs. 2 strikeouts. I bet he grew up masturbating to Jim Thome.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks preview.)

Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks outperformed the sum of their parts, posting the best record in the National League despite being outscored by their opponents. In fantasy baseball, as opposed to the real thing, this is not good: wins are important only as one category of pitching stats, rather than being the only thing that actually counts. How will the team fair this year – and, more importantly from a rotisserie perspective, how will the individual players fair? Rather than picking out the best players – if you don’t already know Brandon Webb is among the best pitchers in the National League, this article won’t help you – here are the ones who are most likely to overperform, underperform, or simply have questionmarks over them.

LIKELY TO IMPROVE
1B Conor Jackson. Definite sleeper potential here. Jackson had an abysmal April, but after that, quietly batted .296 with rate stats that, pro-rated over 162 games, would have been 22 homers and 82 RBI. He has picked up speed over the off-season; while he won’t be Jose Reyes on the basepaths, a few more infield hits are likely, and you could be looking at a .300, 25 HR season. The departure of Tony Clark leaves him the full-time incumbent, though he may lose some starts to Chad Tracy, after he returns.

SS Stephen Drew. ‘Buy low’ is what you are doing here, and Drew is likely to improve, simply because he’s better than the .238 he posted last season – he was a career .299 hitter in the minors. Drew was, to some extent, the victim of bad luck, with his BA on balls in play flukishly low. There aren’t many alternatives on the D-backs roster, so even if he struggles initially, he’s still going to get playing time for Arizona.

RHP Tony Peña. Most of the D-backs bullpen are due to regress back towards the mean this year, but Pena’s big advantage is that he’s the immediate heir apparent for the closer’s spot. If Brandon Lyon falters – and there are a good number of experts who think that he will – Peña will immediately become a lot more valuable. Last year’s Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, led the league in saves, as much because the team gave his so many opportunities, 61 of their 90 wins being by three runs or less. Expect the same this year.

LIKELY TO FADE
LF Eric Byrnes. With mostly a young squad, age is on the side of Arizona, and Byrnes, now aged 32, is the ‘elder statesman’ among the position players. He had a decent 104 OPS+ last year, but that was his best since 2004 and he’s at the age where further improvement is doubtful. Might still be worth picking up for steals – he swiped 50 bags last year – but if you do, trade him by the All-Star break, as his career average in the second half is only .239, more than fifty points worse than during the first half.

LHP Doug Davis. A 4.25 ERA in a hitter’s park like Chase might tempt you, but don’t be fooled, as Davis dodged an awful lot of bullets last season. Non-pitchers batted .294 against him, and his WHIP of 1.59 ranks him just worse than Jose Contreras and Daniel Cabrera, who had ERAs of 5.57 and 5.55 respectively. Davis can still pitch, when he doesn’t walk too many people, but if his control deserts him, the hits which are an inevitable part of his game will lead to too many unsightly box-scores.

WILD CARDS
RHP Randy Johnson. Johnson made only ten starts last year, but posted a decent 3.81 ERA and a very respectable K:BB ratio of 72:13. He’s come off back surgery for the second consecutive season, but his rehab this time round has been longer – he now admits he rushed back in 2007, and that was likely in part responsible for the relapse. Needs 16 wins to reach the magic number of 300, and that will likely drive Johnson. No doubting his competitive urges; don’t expect 30+ starts, but worth having on your bench and picking your spots.

RF Justin Upton. Expectations are high for Upton, with Bill James predicting a line of .278/.353/.496, to go with 19 homers and 74 RBI. To put that prediction of an .849 OPS into context, even an .800 figure by a 20-year old over a full season has only been seen twice in my lifetime [from some guys called Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr...] Much as I would love to see Upton become the third such phenom, I think we’ll have to wait until 2009 to see the full flowering of his unquestionable talents. He’ll be lots of fun to watch, but let some other manager go through the growing pains Upton will endure this year.

3B Mark Reynolds. Pulled up from Double-A after we ran out of third-basemen, Reynolds exploded, batting .459 in his first ten major-league games, including a five-hit night. The rest of the year was like a roller-coaster: Reynolds hit .162 in June, .194 in July, but .342 in August and .300 in the final month. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. He has genuine power, and 25 HR seems easily achievable, but he will also likely strike out 150 times or more. Will also likely split some time at third with Chad Tracy, but a late-round pick could pay dividends.

Jim McLennan grew up in Britain, but fell in love with baseball because of its statistics, and has followed the D-backs since their home field was just a hole in the ground. He can be found ranting about them, on an almost daily basis, at azsnakepit.com.