Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chipper Jones says he thinks he injured himself while running out of the batter’s box. For a baseball player, this seems like a pretty innocuous place to injure themselves. How exactly do you get injured coming out of a batter’s box? Swing, turn, run. A layperson (you and I) does not come out of a batter’s box, but a similarly innocuous place might be, say, a bathroom. So imagine a buddy told you he hurt himself taking a crap. Previous week, he strained something showering. Couple of weeks ago, while putting unicorn jizz (that’s what I call toothpaste) on his toothbrush, he pulled a metacarpal. Previously, he’s broke a toe changing the TP, popped an eardrum Q-Tipping, sliced off a piece of nose while shaving, got a hernia while toweling off and he got a Grade 3 windburn from a blow dryer. Would you think your friend was a good bet to stay healthy until October? Yeah, me neither. As for Wainwright, this strikes me as really bad luck for his owners (which is me for many teams). He says that he should be fine and there’s no official word. I doubt official word is at all positive. Brace yourself for different options. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Matt Garza/Dioner Navarro - Had a scuffle in the dugout yesterday, causing Garza to get pulled early. Going forward this is a problem for one of my teams because I have both guys. Here’s my plan of action, I’m going to sit Navarro whenever Garza pitches, but in the meantime I’m going to have my corner infielder, Helton, talk to both of them about the importance of the Lord, charity and all of that. Then I’m going to bring Keith Foulke in to talk to both guys because– Wait, this is fantasy baseball, not real. Oh, yeah, then Dioner and Garza will be fine.

Kyle Lohse - 7-2. The “h” in his name is like a precarious Jenga piece.  At some point it will be pulled out, his success will collapse, and all he’ll do for your team is Lose.

Kevin Slowey - 8 ER in 3 IP. Another outing like that and he’s on the short bus back to AAA.

Aaron Harang - I’m trying not to blame that long relief outing still, but…. Ugh. He’s an excellent buy low candidate right now. He is better than his numbers.

Alexei Ramirez - 3-for-4 with a home run. The Alex(e)i with the ‘e’ is showing the Alexi without the ‘e’ they’re only similar in almost names.

Mark Reynolds - Now 6 home runs in 15 games. If you remember from the beginning of the season, Reynolds is what you call streaky.

Nick Swisher - Getting hot. If he’s on your waivers, he’s absolutely worth a pickup. He’s valuable when he’s hot.

Jason Giambi - 14th home run. Much like Ron Jeremy, Giambi sports a ’stache, swings a big bat, and appears out of shape and over the hill.

Luke Scott - From the files of abandoned outfielders that never produced, here comes another streaky hitter. Hit two home runs yesterday. Might hit three more in the next week. Cust kayin’.

Gavin Floyd - He has a 20/1 K/BB ratio in his last three starts. And his first name is Gavin. What’s not to like?

Wandy Rodriguez - Lost to the Cards, but his line doesn’t look awful. Only allowed four hits and no earned runs. 7 Ks.

Mark Teixeira - PABST has five HRs in the last 11 games. Might have officially turned the corner into a full season stud or FABST? Um… Not sure about this one anymore.

Justin Masterson - That’s it. You got what you got. I wouldn’t start him in his next start.

Curtis Granderson - I was happy to see Granderson hit a HR, but I was even happier to see him bat ninth. That makes a lot more sense than Miggy in the sixth hole.

Ryan Tucker - Must Die. I’d bid maybe a $1 in NL-Only leagues, but that’s about it.

BJ Upton - Two home runs in three days. Maybe this is when the power streak comes on. Then again, it was in Texas and Ramon Vazquez is hitting in Texas.

Vernon Wells - Not only came back early from a wrist injury, but hit a home run yesterday. I’d try and sell him quickfast.

Jose Guillen - Just in case you missed it, he hit 3 HR and 9 RBI over the weekend at Yankee Stadium. That’s now 9 HR and 45 RBI for the year (albeit with 25 R and .262 AVG).  Between this and Milton Bradley’s triple crown run, 2008 is shaping up as the year of the crazy. Jose had a incredibly silent 23/99/.290 last year in Seattle after some troubles in Washington, but he’s worth taking a flier on if he’s hanging around on the FA wire.  BTW, how incredibly dull is Carlos Guillen in comparison to Jose and Ozzie Guillen?  Jose and Ozzie Canseco were pretty nutty too.

Let’s pretend Francisco Liriano is that girl you hooked up with at the bar. You think she’s hot, but, honestly, you can’t really remember the color of her hair, let alone her carpet. Though you do remember the sex being good. Now she calls to tell you she’s available Sunday night and your friend, Kevin Slowey, just cancelled on you. Oh, and there’s one condition, since the last time you saw her, she had reconstructive surgery. She swears she’ll be back in form by Sunday. You agree to meet her and begin to talk about that night you met. She confides that she has no idea what you look like either. Now you can meet her because the sex was good one random night before her reconstructive surgery or, because she has no idea what you look like either, you can call your friend and trade him this girl for John Maine. I trade Liriano for John Maine before Sunday night. You’re in a one year league and you’re playing for the here and now. You don’t have time for Liriano to ‘get back to form.’ Sell high and trade Liriano. With that said, here’s some other players you should buy or sell.

SELL

Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp - If you can trade any of these guys, I think you’ll be a happier person. The Pierre Situation™ has screwed up everything. Maybe Pierre gets traded, but at this point you’re not in a good position to succeed with any of these guys.

Felix Pie - Reed Johnson has sliced into the playing time of Pie. Oofa! Grab a spot on the bench next to Matt Murton, Felix. Trade Pie to someone who thinks Pie will definitely win the position and succeed.

Luke Scott - He’s batting near .500. If anyone believes it, I’d trade him. Otherwise, hold onto him for the time being.

Blake DeWitt - If you don’t think Torre’s going to play Nomar, take one look at The Pierre Situation™.

Mark Reynolds - He’s not awful, but he’s not going to be as good as he has been for the last week. Not to mention, he will strikeout 200 times this year.

BUY

Brett Myers - In two starts, he’s been battered like he likes to do to his wife. He’ll be better.

Micah Owings - Almost 9 K/9. Under 3 BB/9.

Edwin Jackson - He got a Murtonesque mishandling by the Dodgers. Underutilized or not utilized at all. Back in the day, he was a great prospect for the Dodgers.  He’s still only 24, but he is on the Rays.

Justin Upton - I don’t think you can get him from anyone in an NL-only league or a keeper, but one year league owners may not be sold. He’s a talent.

Chad Billingsley - Velocity’s down but he was pitched out of the bullpen then made to start. I think it’s just a rough beginning.

Mike Napoli - His average is going to be in the dumpster, but he’s showing power.

Jeff Suppan - Not masterful, but he can help out with wins and innings.

Shawn Hill - In 97 innings last year, he had 65 Ks and a 3.42/1.14. If he’s on waivers, grab him. He’s about to come back from his injury.

Scott Hairston - He got a Murtonesque mishandling in Arizona. He now has his chance to play.

Miguel Cabrera - None of his owners are actually worried about him, are they?

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Baltimore Orioles preview.)

In the offseason, Orioles’ VP and defacto GM Andy MacPhail finally started a rebuilding process that has been needed for the last decade. The off-season tone was much different. No over the hill stopgap players were signed. Trades were made. No false assurances were made by Peter Angelos that this team can win some games. The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team, they could easily lose 100 games. With rebuilding though, a 100 lose team with future potential will be better than a 80 lose team with aging downside vets. Stars Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada were traded for prospects as the build for the future philosophy has been embraced. Brian Roberts could be traded aaannnnyyyy time now.

Pitching

The trade of Erik Bedard to the Mariners has left a gapping hole at the start of the rotation. There were nasty rumors that Steve Trachsel would get the nod on opening day, but instead Jeremy Guthrie will. Guthrie had a great first half of the 2007 season. Before the All-Star Break he went 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA, after the break he went 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA before getting shut down for the season. This season will show whether Guthrie will be a viable major league pitcher or a flash in the pan. Daniel Cabrera is being looked at as the number two pitcher. For his career, he’s been looked at as a diamond in the rough. He has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to harness it. Last season’s 9-18 debacle pushed me to my limit with Cabrera. Amazing arm, but anything that goes wrong goes to his head and the floodgates open. He had his second consecutive 100 walk season last year with 108. His ERA ballooned to a robust 5.55 for 2007. Cabrera’s last two pitching coaches have been Ray Miller and Leo Mazzone, if new pitching coach Rick Krantiz can turn Cabrera around, a statue of him should be erected at the Yard. Adam Loewen missed most of last season with shoulder surgery. A screw was put in there and hope is he’ll rebound. The spring has not been kind to him with short outings and control issues. I hope he’s getting the rust off, but I worry about him. Steve Trachsel will have the four spot. Trachsel is a stopgap, preventing the O’s to do what they’ve done so much over the years. They rush a young pitching up to big club with not enough time in the minors because the rotation stinks. The young pitcher gets shelled and after a few times out, he’s sent back down and forgotten. Trachsel will eat innings, put us to sleep, be mediocre, and hold a spot until one of the young arms is truly ready to go. Matt Albers and Brian Burres are competing for the five spot. Albers, who came via the Tejada trade to Houston, seems to be the favorite. Burres started some last season but seems, in my opinion, to be better suited as long relief. The rotation doesn’t look pretty now, but with the likes of Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, Hayden Penn, Brandon Erbe, Pedro Beato, the injured Troy Patton, Tim Bascom, Radhames Liz, Garret Olson, and Chorye Spoone in the minors, the rotation can only get better over time, we hope.

Bullpen

The Baltimore bullpen has been brutally bad over the past few seasons. Retreads come and go, quality arms get overworked and rendered useless. The pen this year could be ok. Danys Baez and his horrible contract will be out for the season. Chris Ray will be out for the better part of the season. George Sherrill, acquired in the Bedard deal, will be the closer. Sherrill could be a nice surprise for O’s fans, but the question is ‘how many save opportunites will he get?” Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford were stellar last season. Walker was the most dependable arm in the pen. Bradford was mostly reliable but at times his outings were hellish tightrope acts. Dennis Sarfate, acquired through the Tejada trade, is a power arm added to the pen. The loser of the Burres/Albers battle for the rotation spot will be a long reliever. Randor Bierd, a rule 5er from Detroit, and Greg Acquino seem locked into spots in the pen. Rocky Cherry has had a nice spring, but looks to be the odd man out (to Norfolk) due to option issues with everyone else.

Position Players

The outfield could be one of the better ones in years. Nick Markakis had a great season with 23 HR and 112 RBI and only looks to be getting better. He appears to a cornerstone that the O’s can build around him. He’s been the pretty much the exception to the rule about the O’s farm over the past decade. Playing along side him now is newly acquired CF Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Jones has been said to be a Tori Hunter/Mike Cameron blend player. It’s going to be a year or two to see if Jones will be as good or better than those players, but getting him is a big win for the O’s. Luke Scott will be the primary leftfielder. Scott has power, but had limited playing time in Houston. In Baltimore, he should have plenty of time in left and get some hits. Jay Payton, Tike Redman, Jay Gibbons, and Scott Moore will be vying for reserve time in the OF. Moore is going to be more of a super utility player. Payton’s a declining player (how can you decline if you’ve never really been good?) with a bad contract who the O’s will trade at their first chance. Gibbons was a horrible contract (If we’re lucky, the FO will release him and just eat the money left on the contract. I have nothing further about Gibbons to say that doesn’t involved expletives) from the previous regimes that the O’s would love to shed, but no other team is that foolish. Redman, if Payton gets traded, would be the 4th outfielder.

In the infield, Kevin Millar will anchor first base and sadly be the clean-up hitter. Millar can work a count and get some hits, but he’s in the twilight of his career. A player like him is good to have on a rebuilding team to be a rah-rah team guy, but to have him hitting clean-up shows you the state of the O’s. Brian Roberts, at the moment, is still an Oriole. The trade with the Chicago Cubs could happen tomorrow or never. If he stays with the O’s, they have one of the best speed guy and lead-off hitters in the game. Roberts can get on base and change game with his steals and speed. Smart money is that he’ll start the season as an O but will be traded at some point in the season. Melvin Mora will still be at third, with Scott Moore (hopefully) taking over at some point. Mora’s in the downside of his career and was unwisely given a nice contract mere moments before his decline. Scott Moore came from the Cubs and has had a nice spring and will hopefully make the team and getting playing time. Moore has a nice pop to his bat and could pan out to be a good third baseman. Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey are vying for the shortstop job. Both of these guys are the classic all glove and no hit guys, that’s the best that I can say about them. Aubrey Huff will see time at DH and 1st this season. He’ll go through his yearly slow start (1st half of the season) before hitting his midseason stride (hit for the cycle one day, strikeout four times the next game).

Ramon Hernandez is back at catcher. Ramon had an bad year last season and had a recurring oblique injury. Refreshed and in camp in better shape, he could return to form. This is probably his last season in Baltimore with Matt Wieters being the catcher of the future. A trade to Mets makes sense. Guillermo Quiroz appears to have won the backup catcher job with a solid spring.

Vets like Mora, Payton, Huff, Millar, and any other player over 30 could and probably will be dealt during the season to get more prospects and to open up positions for young players to man. I’ll cheer the day when the last of the Flannagan/Duquette regime’s troop of 1st base/DH only players are gone.

Fantasy Players must haves
Not really many on the O’s but here’s a few that are good ones
Nick Markakis- He had 23 HR and 112 RBI. He’s only getting better and you should expect something along the lines of this this season.

George Sherrill- Hasn’t closed in the majors before, but will have the job with the O’s this season. The only worry is lack of save chances.

Luke Scott- If you’re looking for a 4th outfielder to use, Scott could be a nice pickup. Scott has shown that he can hit in his limited time in Houston. In Camden, he could have some get production as long as deadweight like Payton and Gibbons don’t steal his playing time.

Brian Roberts- He doubtfully will be an Oriole all season, but he still is now. Roberts is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He can get on base and steal bases. Roberts one of my favorites, I’ve got his jersey. Something tells me I need to go ahead and get that Nick Markakis jersey.

Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford could have a little fantasy value too. I like Walker better than Bradford, but both are decent.

So it’s probably going to be a long season. I don’t think we’ll lose 100 games, but I still have a little optimism left in me. The O’s could be slightly better than we think (or rather less worse) but it depends on the starting pitching. If the pitching fares poorly, well…I’ve been through ten losing seasons, an 11th wouldn’t kill me.

Ben runs Oriole Central.

What you say, you need fantasy baseball sleepers for 2008? You’re looking to get some value at your fantasy draft. Yeah, you and every other schmohawk who’s reading this. Luckily, there’s enough crap out there to distract enough people. So here’s a quick breakdown of 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers for every position. If you want their projections, check the “Players by Position” dropdown on the left side or download Rudy Gamble’s 2008 Player Rater, it’s free, viral and virus-free as far as I can tell. BTW, we’ve covered some of these dudes in past sleeper articles here, here , here and finally here. This list is going to be quick and to the point (unlike this intro).

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz – So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.