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At the end of the year, you can look at season long stats and try to build a DK lineup and I can pretty much promise you, disappointment will follow.  You see, season is all but done, bro and bro-ettes.  That means guys get tired.  The studs of May, June and July give way to the youthful, the fresh guys of the DL and the DFAs who get invigorated by their new teams.  De Aza, I’m looking directly at you…and many of my season long teams thank you.  But truly, if we were to look at the baseball season like it were cut up into the different eras of the Beatles catalog, September would have to be the psychedelic phase.  Everything you thought you knew about the baseball season just doesn’t apply right now.  Oakland has been a ‘bad’ team for a couple of months yet their record on the surface says otherwise.  Nelson Cruz leads the MLB in HRs with 39 but most of those HRs came in May with 13.  And in the end, what happens works now in context but overlapping with the season it seems just completely out there.  Going from ‘Love Me Do’ to ‘Strawberry Fields Forever’ is quite the drastic jolt, Lennon.  I Am The Walrus?  Shut the f@#$ up, Donny!  Now where was I?  Oh yeah, all this to say, hanging your hat on season stats don’t get you nowhere.  Case in point, Tyler MatzekSeason stats tell you he’s pretty mediocre.  The ERA is 4.19…meh.  The K/9 says 6.69…ambien pills.  But let’s look at Tyler through a different lenses…say from the start of September.  This Tyler has a 1.74 ERA over 20.2 IP to go with 19 K and 6 walks.  For you non-mathies out there, that’s an 8.27 K/9 and a 2.61 BB/9 rate.  Sure, I ain’t streaming him nor am I throwing him into any cash games but I think even with the plum matchup against the Padres, Matzek will be overlooked and underowned because he’s been ‘so bad for so long’.  Well, so long to that so bad call.  Ride the young arm to victory friends.  And with that, let’s move on.  Here’s some other hot takes for your Monday DK slate…

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Carlos Carrasco, SP: $9,100 – Um…helllooooo.  Hot Carrasco sauce goes with everything, duh.  Amazing how a month ago no one was buying and he sat at $6,600 and now my boy is eating with the DK pitching kings at over 9K.  I’m not gonna say this is the best matchup considering the Royals aren’t a K-happy team but I’ll take dominant stuff over team stats.  Case in point, Carlos teammate Corey Kluber has faced them 3 times this year and has two games of 10 K in that mix.  Spice your lineup a bit.

Francisco Liriano, SP: $10,000 – Things recently seen near the Braves clubhouse.  Just remember the one that says ‘I’m not dead yet’.  He’ll be important for later.  The Pirates are still charging for the playoffs and the Braves have done squat of late, sitting in the bottom five in wOBA, ISO and +RC for the last seven days.  Liriano is a mystery wrapped in an enigma smothered in a paradox.  Seriously, figuring out when he’s going to be steady is about as holy of a crusade as South Park’s Stan trying to find out where the clitoris is.  But he’s being given the matchup to dominate and I can’t turn away from it…and by that I mean from starting him.  I still can’t actually watch the start.  Lost 5 years off my life last time I watched one of those.  Never again…

Ricky Nolasco, SP: $5,900 – Speaking of taking years off your life, kept Ricky Nolasco after his good year way back when.  Believed it was a BABIP blip the next year when he got torn up.  Kept him again.  Don’t worry, I’ve kicked the habit.  I’ve actually picked him up and dropped him without starting him a few times just to feel the satisfaction.  But I’m here to point this out: Arizona just went to Colorado – also known as the holy land of homers in some biblical books – and came away with 13 total runs, 3 HRs, and 8 total XBHs…yes, those 3 HRs counted as part of my XBH.  BTW, that was a four game series.  They averaged 3.25 RPG in Coors.  This is a team that is lost offensively at sea and Nolasco has back to back 20 point efforts.  Another one wouldn’t surprise me, just realize that unless you’re stacking a really expensive lineup, you don’t need to dive in on sticky, icky Ricky.

James Paxton, SP: $8,800 – When people think of the Blue Jays, they think of Joey Bats, E5 and Reyes’ odd hair game.  But due to injury and ineptitude and Lind being sat against lefties, I can almost guarantee this will be the next 6 in the lineup: Navarro/Valencia/Mayberry/Pompey/Tolleson/Pillar.  Your reactions to those names should be, appropriately, ‘ok/hrm, well lefty splits I guess/wait, he’s still playing?/who?/why are they starting the backup to the backup utility infielder?/isn’t ‘Pillar’ a rice dish?’.  Your response is on point.  Paxton probably gets ignored out of fear of a team based on name alone.  This is the team he’s actually facing, though, and it’s striking out almost 25% of the time over the last 7 days.

Chris Carter, 1B/OF: $4,200 – The price is on point here.  Carter is an ISO darling vs LHP, sporting the 10th highest on the season vs southpaws at .282.  He and Jose Altuve are major reasons I’m not on the Derek Holland bandwagon for today.  Dongs are what make the DK world go round and if anyone could go double dong for today, the Carter man can.

Josh Donaldson, 3B: $4,400 – Yeah, I can’t talk lefty masher without talking @BringerOfRain20.  His ISO vs lefties on the year is .372.  Cash game must and I’ll probably throw him out there in GPPs as well because, c’mon seriously…A .372 ISO!  Sometimes it doesn’t pay to fight the system.  Take me, big brother.

Yan Gomes, C: $4,100 – So I didn’t ask for the day that every lefty started but I’m not gonna fight it.  Yan hits for power vs both types of arms at a decent rate but his average jumps .75 points going against a lefty (.341 against lefties vs .266 against righties).  So basically, his power is still in play AND you have a bit better floor with him on a day like this.  Candied Yan, if you will.

Wilin Rosario, C: $4,600 – I’m only mentioning him because if you have the left over coin for it AND you wanna go contrarian, Rosario in San Diego is the place to be.  Rosario has hit lefties well this year despite his struggles and he has two bombs off of Eric Stultz in 15 career AB for the BvP crowd.  And given Michael Cuddyer’s awesome return from the DL, consider this a tip of the GPP cap to him as well.

Matt Holliday, OF: $4,800 – Seriously, is everyone on the mound a lefty today?  Hate picking on my brethren but the stats make me a wrong hand hater today.  Holliday is right behind Carter on the year for ISO against LHP with a .276 clip.  Even better, Matt has 4 HRs in 37 ABs against Travis Wood to go with a 1.184 OPS.  I hear that plays well in DK formats.  So does Yadier Molina’s career 1.160 ISO to go with 3 HRs in 35 ABs while we’re at it.  Also, if he’s in, Randal Grichuk has homered in 2 of his last three and the coaching staff has shown a tendency to get him in there vs a lefty more often than not.  I ain’t stacking Cards, but I might shuffle the deck and draw a few aces out.  And with that, yeah, don’t ask about more catchers.  Ain’t no need.

Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/OF: $3,100 – Remember the ‘I’m not dead yet’ thing?  Yeah, it’s a short enough article, I’m not pointing back at it for you.  I believe in your reading ability.  Basically Boni is a great get against lefties almost any time out, especially at his going rate.  Chances are he leads off.  Feel conflicted starting Emilio while starting Liriano?  Don’t be.  I started him on Saturday and Niese.  Both scored me over 20 and Emilio didn’t even score a run.  Having your cake and eating it too IS possible, friends.

Travis Snider, OF: $3,100 – Snider has done next to nothing with his recent time in the lineup and it’s quite possible that Gregory Polanco will get a start.  Great intro, right?  Well, Aaron Harang don’t like lefties too much in Atlanta, giving up a .362 wOBA against LHBs at home on the season.  The Pirates hot hitting coupled with Harang’s shaky ways makes Pittsburgh a stackable lineup for me.

Alejandro De Aza, OF: $4,100 – Leaves one friendly ballpark for lefties, enters another.  It’s a good life.  De Aza has been leading off with Markakis ailing and even when Markakis isn’t dinged up, Alejandro had been batting second.  Great gap hitter who could get a short porch cheapy or walk, steal a base and score a run.  Basically I’m just trying to say he’s the best thing ever…or at the very least, the best De Aza I’m familiar with.  PS, news on the street says Markakis returns on Monday.  PS part 2, my eval on De Aza doesn’t change because of this.  PS part 3, I’ll take the possible refreshed dong chance from Nick with his cheap $3,700 price tag.

J.D. Martinez, OF: $4,900 – The Tigers have the 4th highest wOBA over the last 7 games heading into Sunday.  The Tigers face Chris BassittChris Bassitt has been known to get torched.  He most likely does today.  You’ll notice I’m not even telling you about J.D., he’s just hot and needs to be a part of the Tigers stack you’ll no doubt build.  I’m simply here to let you know I’m ok with this.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Much like how your grandpa talks about him your grandma’s sex life, this looks to be a dry run.  But for baseball, that’s good so enjoy

Doing Lines In Vegas

Sadly, there are no more games in Colorado this year so there’s no need to wonder if there is a game with an o/u of 10 unless the wind is blowing out in Wrigley.  Our high of the day goes to DETvsCHW with old, dirty Bassitt on the mound for the Sox.  I think Lobstein will contribute a few runs to the cause as well.  Give me the over here.  I’m tentatively giving the 6.5 o/u the over treatment in the CLEvsKC game.  Danny Duffy is coming off an injury where he left in the first inning.  I just don’t trust that he is healthy or I would’ve given you the thumbs up on the start above.  He has 21K in 21.2 IP against the Tribe this year.   Yeah, I’m prolly gonna be wrong here…and final call, gimme the under for the 8 in the TORvsSEA tilt.