Fantasy Baseball Advice

People love Michael Bourn.  Color me confused.  I am far and away the lowest on Michael Bourn out of every ‘pert both sides of the Mississippi and Canada, unless the Mississippi runs through Canada and that’s being redundant; I have no idea.  Last year, he had more plate appearances than Prince Fielder, Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval combined (talking off the diamond plate appearances, which is obviously much higher than on the field ones for those three).  Bourn’s PAs numbered 722 and he would need that to repeat his 60 steals from last year.  That was the 4th highest plate appearances in the majors last year.  To count on 722 plate appearances again is a horn bet.  I have his projections down for 90/2/40/.280/50.  That seems more than fair.  If he pulls a hammy, then his value, which is all tied up in his legs like any good piece of chicken, is kaput.  But we’re going to assume he does steal 50 bases and no witchcraft I do will work.  So why then is Michael Bourn overrated for 2012 fantasy baseball?

SAGNOF!  You knew it was coming.  I knew it was coming.  It was only a matter of time.  Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face.  Today, we’re talking about the steals side of the equation.  What kind of face do steals have?  No face.  Let’s look at the ZiPS projections for one player:  In 489 plate appearances, 64/1/24/.273 with 44 steals.  This player is none other than Tony Campana.  That’s the Tony “I’m Not Drafted In Any League” Campana.  Want another one?  Here’s a guy’s 2011 numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49.  That’s Coco Crisp.  He’s being drafted about 20 outfielders after Bourn on average.  Not to mention, how many homers are you getting from the rest of your team to put Bourn on your team as your first outfielder?  You need 20 homers per player in 12 team leagues.  Don’t think about drafting a Bonifacio at middle infield or any other steals-only player, because then you’re doomed to be power light.  Finally, I’ll lay on you a credo that’s not a credo but more of a metaphor.  This has been said ad nauseam on this site, but here’s it one more time.  (If you’re reading this on a roller coaster, you may barf.)  You can always trade closers.  There’s only so many of them in the league at any given time and people will lose one and need another one.  On the other hand, speedsters are like new cars.  They’re pricey and lose their value the minute you drive them off the lot.  Bourn’s on some expert lists around Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence or Nelson Cruz.  Seriously, try to draft Bourn, then trade him for one of those other outfielders right after the draft.  You’ll be having buyer’s remorse almost immediately.

San Diego Padres 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2012 (8) | 2011 (8) | 2010 (20) | 2009 (29) | 2008 (13) | 2007 (29) | 2006 (29)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [71-91] NL West

AAA: [65-79] Pacific Coast League – Tucson

AA: [94-46] Texas League – San Antonio

A+: [96-71] California League – Lake Elsinore

A: [69-70] Midwest League – Fort Wayne

A(ss): [46-30] Northwest League – Eugene

The Run Down

San Diego’s system is, without a doubt, among the best in baseball, and that holds true regarding fantasy.  Recent trades are looking incredibly smart, as they’ve traded away big league pieces for multiple prospects, all of whom appear to be panning out.  Alonso, Grandal, Wieland, Erlin and Kelly were all acquired from other systems, and they’re all on the verge of breaking through with the Padres. Liriano, Gyorko and Spangenberg headline the homegrown talent, which is a bit further from the majors.  But this system is flush with talent and fantasy owners should familiarize themselves with these names.  And as usual, the Petco effect applies – keep an eye on these pitchers, especially.

Arizona Fall League Players – Salt River Rafters

Anthony Bass (RHP); Jeff Ibarra (LHP); Miles Mikolas (RHP); Jason Hagerty (C); Jedd Gyorko (3B); James Darnell (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Cory Luebke (LHP); Logan Forsythe (2B)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Yonder Alonso | 1B:

After posting a .943 OPS in 98 trips to the plate with the Reds last year, it’s clear that Alonso is ready for a full-time role in the bigs.  He should have that opportunity this season with the Padres.  While his power probably falls short of Rizzo’s, Alonso has better on-base skills and he certainly has the ability to hit for a higher average.  For now, he likely falls in with the rest of the boring NL first basemen, but he has a chance to separate himself from that group as he settles into his role.

Yasmani Grandal | C:

The Reds pushed Grandal aggressively in 2011, playing him at three levels, beginning at High-A and ending at Triple-A.  After slashing .305/.401/.500 across those stages, it seems his bat is ready for a shot at big league pitching.  His defense, however, needs more work.  Barring an outstanding spring, Grandal will open up 2012 with Tucson, but expect to see the 23-year-old behind the plate in San Diego at some point this year.

Pitchers

Joe Wieland | RHP – SP:

Wieland’s been pegged by many as a fourth starter, but supreme command is allowing him to project beyond that profile.  He features a four-pitch repertoire and he’s precise with each offering.  His stuff will be tested versus more seasoned hitters in Triple-A, but if his success continues, Wieland could be starting games at Petco this year.

Robbie Erlin | SHP – SP:

Erlin, along with Wieland, was acquired via Texas in the Mike Adams swap.  Also like Wieland, he doesn’t light up the radar gun, relying on deception and plus command, instead.  While there are some differences in approach, for fantasy purposes, Erlin and Wieldard are extremely similar.

Casey Kelly | RHP – SP:

Kelly, at his point, isn’t quite as complete as either Wieland or Erlin, but with a bit more refinement to his secondary pitches, he could reach the majors before both.  Kelly throws a heavy sinker and induces groundballs often.  I’m still waiting for his production to catch up with his ability, but it’s important to note that he was a fulltime shortstop as recently as 2009.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Jedd Gyorko | 3B:

Gyorko hit .365 in the California League but regressed somewhat when he reached Double-A, posting a .288 average.  He returned to form during AFL play, though, claiming the batting title with a .437 mark.  Gyorko’s had nice power figures to this point – 30 HR in 2011 – but expect that aspect of his game to dwindle when he steps inside Petco.  With Chase Headley entrenched at third, Gyorko won’t arrive ‘til 2013 at the soonest.

James Darnell | 3B/OF:

Darnell slashed .410/.406/.547 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2011, and earned a September promotion.  His bat is intriguing, as well as his ability to play multiple positions.  He’ll start 2012 in Tucson, but Darnell is ready for big league ball and he’ll be called up if needed.

Rymer Liriano | OF:

Lirano’s still a long way from the bigs, but it seems something clicked for him last year at Low-A, and he’s poised to post some gaudy numbers in the California League this year.  The 20-year-old is a genuine five-tool-type and he’ll be a guy to watch as he pushes through the system.  Expect a 2014 arrival, but he could pan out more quickly.

Cory Spangenberg | 2B:

Spangenberg is among the best second base prospects in the minors.  He projects to hit for average and be on base often.  Elite speed will allow him to do some work on those basepaths, too.  He’ll begin 2012 in High-A along with Lirano, but being that he’s a bit more polished, San Diego might promote Spangeberg more aggressively.

Here, friend, are some catchers that I will be targeting at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone.  I’m not going to get into the strategy of punting catchers.  Been there, half-drunkenly wrote that.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections.  This is a (legal-in-most-countries) supplement to the top 20 catchers of 2012 fantasy baseball.  Now, guys (and four girl readers), I am not saying avoid catchers like Wieters, J.P. Arencibia, et al (which is not the Israeli airline).  To get on this list, you need to be drafted later than 200 overall.  And, to preemptively answer at least seven comments, yes, I will go around the entire infield, outfield and pitchers to target very late.  Anyway, here’s some catchers to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Devin Mesoraco – I’m not saying Ryan Hanigan will be the starter because it will be easier for Dusty Baker to spell on the scorecards.  Okay, I am saying that.  Even with my concern that Hanigan will be the starter, I’d draft Mesoraco as a flyer to see if he breaks camp with the team and steals enough ABs to be valuable.  Remember, Mesoraco could be Jesus Montero in a better ballpark.  To translate that into Pig Latin:  E pluribus unum piggy jowls en Cincy es muy bueno.

Chris Iannetta – The Sciosciapath has Bobby Wilson, ye of a 2 homer power and a .206 career average, backing up Iannetta… So Iannetta probably will only get 350 at-bats and be replaced every 3rd inning for defense.  I’m only half joking.  It’s up to you to figure out which half.

Wilson Ramos – I wonder if his kidnappers wore catcher’s masks.  I wonder if they were motivated at all by watching the movie, Celtic Pride.  I wonder if they kidnapped Ramos because they were just big fans of Jesus Flores.  I wonder if before they grabbed Ramos they gave each other the steal sign.  I got questions, y’all!

Geovany Soto – He has around 20 homer power.  Or nearly what Buster Posey has given us in the past two years combined.  Cust kayin’.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – I was talking to a friend recently and they reminded me of a word I used to say all the time — beyotchabatukis.  It’s pronounced like beyotch-a-bah-tukis.  It’s someone you can’t stand who you deal with because they offer you something of greater importance than your general hatred of them.  That guy that always refer to you as “kid” but can get you into a club for free?  Total beyotchabatukis.  I’d say a cheap catcher that can offer you some cheap power would be one, so Saltalamacchia is a beyotchabatukis.  It’s not in the dictionary, don’t try to use it in Words With Friends.

Russell Martin – He seems like he’s about 47 years old, but he’s only 29 and he just came off a season where he went 18/8.  Hey, I’m not a fan either, but you don’t need to be a cyclops with a monocle to see his value with an ADP in the 300′s.

Ryan Doumit – I’m most excited to draft Doumit this year.  Sure, it’s compared to Saltymochachino and Martin, but still.  If he can somehow get 400 ABs he could easily be a top 7 catcher for all the kingdom of baseball and its giant PED moat.

Salvador Perez – Part of me is surprised I didn’t write any sleeper posts about these guys except Devin Mesoraco.  Another part of me doesn’t think anyone wants to read a whole post about a catcher who I project for 10 homers.  I just vomited in my mouth, then swallowed it and burped out, “Salvador Perez.”

Josh Donaldson – Who?  Is this Sam Donaldson’s crossdressing son?  No, Random Italicized Voice, this is Scott Sizemore’s 3rd base replacement.  So why is he in the catchers to target?  Because he has catcher eligibility in CBS, Yahoo and ESPN.   Scott Sizemore’s knee is like Tom Sizemore’s life — needs serious rebuilding.  With him out for the year, Josh Donaldson is the favorite to play 3rd.  In Triple-A, he had some huge numbers — 17 homers, 13 steals.  Those numbers would be terrific, but probably unrealistic.  I’ll give him 50/12/60/.240/7 in 500 ABs.  Sounds like blech with a side of belch, but in two catcher leagues he could pay dividends.  He could even out-produce Suzuki.  Wait, can he bend in his dress?  It’s not the same person.

You’ve seen Grey’s PEDS, you’ve seen his iOS, you’ve seen his Pitcher Pairings, you’ve seen his rankings, you’ve seen his mustache… doode’s an open book (and actually, he’s got one of them, too). He’s fantasy baseball’s equivalent of Jenna Jameson; he’s willing to show you everything, but he’s not quite as easy as he seems.

This is where I come in. I can’t help you with Jenna (I can’t even get within 500 yards of her, technically), but I can help you with Grey. Specifically, I can help you navigate through his Pitcher Pairings in the midst of a heated draft.

Let’s say it’s the beginning of the 3rd round and you see Clayton Kershaw is still on the board. Your draft strategy never accounted for having an elite SP, but you’re not gonna’ let this value slip by. Now you need to know who to pair him with. You can jump over to Grey’s article, find the paragraph that deals with this scenario, find the sentence that tells you what tier your next SP should be from, find that tier in the SP rankings, and then cross-reference those SPs with the ones still on the board and prepare for your next pick.

Except now it’s the middle of the 5th round and you’ve been auto-drafted Brian McCann and Buster Posey. You don’t need to prepare for the rest of your picks, you need to change your team name to “Catcher Me If You McCann” and prepare for a season of endless mocking.

If only there was a web tool where you could have just clicked on Kershaw’s name and it would have brought you straight to a list of players which your next SP should be selected from… a list which also shows Grey’s Top 300 ranking for each of them (and auction draft value, if you’re into that sort of thing). Guess what? Really, that’s your guess? That’s worst guess I’ve ever heard. Stop guessing.

I’ve created such a web tool, and it’s called APPLES (Albright’s Pitcher Pairing Listing Examination System, anagram courtesy of frequent commenter Steve). You start on the home page where you simply click on the name of the pitcher you’ve selected first. You will be magically transported to a new page where you will see a list of pitchers which Grey feels you should make your next SP. When you make that pick, click on the SPs name and you’ll get a new list… and so on. This goes on for six picks total (again, based on Grey’s recommendation).

There are a few things I should point out:

1. As I’ve already mentioned, this is all based on Grey’s recommendations. I’m not the strategist here, just the guy who made the strategy easier to follow.

2. The lists do not update dynamically, so just because you’ve clicked on a pitcher’s name on one page, his name may still show up on the next page if he’s in the group of recommended pitchers. You’ll just have to remember who you’ve already drafted… shouldn’t be too hard.

3. Depending on what path you take through the Pitcher Pairings, some of the pages you see may look similar. And I don’t mean the way these two look similar, but more like the way Sibel Kekilli from Game of Thrones looks similar to former porn actress Dilara. This is because sometimes your best strategy is to take two SPs from the same group.

4. Which brings me to my final point. Since you may need to take two SPs from the same group, I recommend that you jump ahead a pick (if you have the time) to check if that’s the case. If so, you’ll want to plan accordingly. You don’t want to end up selecting one of the last remaining pitchers from a group only to find out that your next pick should have been from that group, too.

And just one side note to any iPad users out there: I have been working on my own “Draft Bible” of sorts (mine is secular, aside from a brief mention of Jesus Montero and St. Rasburg). I’ve got a color-coded Top 300 with Grey’s ranking and auction value, as well as a check box, next to every player’s name. When you tick the box to indicate a player has been taken, their names are automatically removed from that tab and all other tabs (Players By Position, Pitcher Pairings, Closers, and All SPs). I’ve found it invaluable in my auction and (limited) snake drafts. If you have an iPad and the Numbers app, and you’d like to try it out (it’s free), download the iPad Fantasy Baseball Draft Tool.

Any questions? Please post in the comments below… and here’s that link to APPLES again.

We already went over what it took to win your fantasy baseball league for 12 teams.  Don’t believe me?  Click this.  Sucker!  You got Rick Schroder rolled!  Or not because you read this part before you clicked it.  I know, 2002 called, they want their internet meme back.  Okay, here’s what it takes to win your 12 team fantasy baseball league.  Now here we have what it takes to win a 10, 14, 15 and 16 team mixed leagues with 12 thrown in for a reference point.  This year we separated what it took to win your ESPN leagues and your Y! leagues, due to our differences between ESPN and Y! post.  We use ESPN for our RCL, but if you use Y!, I think I get a thousand dollars for every time someone signs up.  Or maybe that’s one thousandth of a dollar.  Either way, use this link.

The numbers you see in the chart (which was made by Rudy — thanks, Rudy!) are the 75th percentile for each league.  So that means in a 10 team ESPN league 1,083 runs gets you a 7.5, 270 homers gets you a 7.5 and so on.  Then in a 14 team Y! league, 817 Runs gets you a 10.5 in the standings.  For those slow on the uptake, just take 75% of the team count and you have the points.  These are all for one catcher leagues.  If you have two catcher leagues, the counting stats go up a little bit and down a little on average.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 10, 14, 15 and 16 2012 fantasy baseball league:

	10 Team		12 Team		14 Team		15 Team		16 Team
	ESPN	Y!	ESPN	Y!	ESPN	Y!	ESPN	Y!	ESPN	Y!
R	1,083	856	1,045	838	1,014	817	999	805	982	794
HR	270	220	261	211	253	202	247	200	240	198
RBI	1,034	827	1,008	804	979	783	961	774	941	765
SB	212	175	189	163	176	154	171	148	169	143
AVG	0.269	0.272	0.267	0.270	0.265	0.269	0.264	0.268	0.264	0.267
W	103	103	100	100	98	95	97	97	96	96
SV	105	105	92	92	81	81	72	76	73	73
ERA	3.37	3.37	3.44	3.44	3.49	3.49	3.51	3.57	3.54	3.54
WHIP	1.23	1.23	1.24	1.24	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.26	1.26
K	1,261	1,261	1,330	1,330	1,188	1,188	1,170	1,170	1,158	1,158