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We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.  The 2011 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really want a top 3rd baseman.  I ain’t mucking around.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

1. Evan Longoria – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Longoria’s projections.

2. David Wright – In the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Wright’s projections.

3. Ryan Zimmerman – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is Zimmerman’s projections.

4. Alex Rodriguez – In the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball post is A-Rod’s projections.

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball for Youkilis’s projections.  (Note:  He might not have 3rd base eligibility when the season starts, but he’ll get it soon enough.)

6. Mark Reynolds – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Casey McGehee.  I call this tier, “Where the hell are all the top 3rd basemen?”  If someone sees the top 20 3rd basemen, send them in my direction.  I went over the Reynolds fantasy move to The Big ‘More.  The gist of that post is he won’t be as bad as he was in 2010 or as good in 2009.  You go read it yourself, I only counted three tipos.  2011 Projections:  80/35/95/.235/12

7. Adrian Beltre – I went over my Beltre fantasy when he moved to the Lone Star state.  To be completely honest with you, before he signed with the Rangers, he was in the tier of players I’m avoiding.  His move bumped him up to a more attractive tier.  I’m sure his mother is proud.  2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

8. Michael Young – I’m worried that the bottom on Young’s power is going to drop out.  His HR/FB% last year came down from its high of 2009, but it can still come down further.  Then you throw in a guy who’s aging and still refuses to take a walk.  I think his career decline is going to come fast and hard.  Like a 14 homer, 3 steal season is around the corner.  2011 Projections:  85/17/80/.280/5

9. Casey McGehee – He’s more or less Pablo Sandoval with a bit more power and less average.  And that is the first time anyone’s ever been more Pablo Sandoval.  Usually they’re less.  Personally, I want power over average so I’d lean towards McGehee.  Plus, his average shouldn’t be terrible without some bad luck.  2011 Projections:  75/24/90/.280

10. Pedro Alvarez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Aramis.  I call this tier, “I’m going all in on one of these guys if I don’t get an elite 3rd baseman because shizz gets drastic after these two.”  I already went over my Pedro Alvarez fantasy.  If I miss out on the top 3rd basemen, Alvarez is the guy I want in every league.  He is Julio Upsidiero for 2011.  He needs a fantasy sleeper post to really beat into your heads how much you need him.  (Yes, I’ve even thought about how scary it’s going to be being pot-committed to watching the Pirates.)  2011 Projections:  70/27/85/.260/3

11. Aramis Ramirez – I only like Aramis because I’m all out of Drakkar.  See what I did there?!  It’s cologne humor!  I like Aramis this year because he seems to be going pretty cheaply in drafts.  Is he suddenly going to hit 35+ homers again?  Sure, and just because you replaced your Mom’s name on your cellphone with Natalie Portman it means it’s the star of Black Swan calling you three times a day.  2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280

12. Jose Bautista – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Sandoval.  I call this tier, “No, thanks.”  Anyone who is drafting Bautista is out of their flippin’ mind.  There, I said it.  I don’t even know how anyone’s drafting a guy who went from 13 homers in 113 games in 2009 to 54 homers in 161 games.  Doesn’t that just ring a bit weird for you drafters of Bautista?   His HR/FB% for his career is 13.8%.  Last year, it was 21.7%.  That’s absurd.  If you remove his best average month of July, he hit .242 in 471 other at-bats.  That was in his best season!  There’s still no warning signs?  How about the fact that once pitchers realized he was using a corked bat with Sammy Sosa’s signature on it, he hit .224 in September and October?  Still not enough?  Eh, go back and stick your head in the sand.  2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5

13. Pablo Sandoval – You know who Pablo Sandoval looks like?  No, not Rerun.  He looks like a young Lyle Overbay.  I obviously mean, his stats look like a young Overbay.  High teen power, good average.  It’s a’ight, I suppose, but if he struggles out of the gate the Giants won’t extend his leash anywhere near how long they did last year.  2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3

14. Placido Polanco – This tier goes from here until Rolen.  I call this tier, “There are so many more 3rd basemen that I don’t want compared to ones that I do want.” Went over Polanco’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

15. Chase Headley – I actually recommended him last year.  Well, they’re not all world wide web gems.  I obviously forgot he plays his home games at Petco.  In 295 ABs at home, 3 homers and a .237 average.  Last year Luis Polonia hit better in the Sexual Predator League at Rikers.  2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7

16. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.

17. Scott Rolen – Post-All-Star break he had 188 ABs and 3 homers.  That’s someone you should draft.  Maybe you can platoon him in and out with Troy Glaus.  2011 Projections:  55/15/70/.275

18. Ian Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “You have nothing here but upside. Meaning:  you may get nothing.”  I know, Ian Stewart buckled under the pressure of being nicknamed, Mini Mini Donkey.  It was a lot of brays to live up to.  So why do I still believe in him?  Because he really didn’t buckle under the pressure, he just didn’t get enough ABs.  With an everyday job, he’s a 25-30 homer, 5 steals and a .260ish average.  Of course, you might end up drafting Nadir Bupkis if Wigginton steals a lot of playing time from him.  Stewart will definitely see his share of the bench vs. lefties.  In this bear market of third basemen, it’s worth the flier on Stewart in the endgame.  2011 Projections:  65/22/75/.260/5

19. Chris Johnson – Is it bad when two of the bigger upside picks come from the Pirates and Astros?  Yes, yes it is.  Honestly, I don’t fully buy into the Chris Johnson fanwagon.  He arrived with little fanfare last summer, because he was kinda whatever.  He struck out 91 times in 94 games last year and I think Johnson’s pretty numbers are a small sample size talking.  (That’s what she said!)  But he is in his prime and has upside.  It’s worth a flier if you’re back against the wall.  2011 Projections:  65/20/80/.260/3 (<–optimistic but whatevs)

20. Danny Valencia – I see your upside, Danny Valencia, and I’m not that impressed.  Listen, you’re real deep into a position by this point.  If you draft Valencia, there’s a good chance you’re going to drop him by April 10th for a guy who starts out hot.  If Valencia starts off hot, then maybe you can flip him for a better piece.  If this doesn’t sound like the greatest upside pick in the world, it probably isn’t.  Best case scenario, he hits 17 homers with a good average.  It’s a’ight.  2011 Projections:  65/15/75/.300

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but here’s two that stand out:

Mike Moustakas – I already went over my Moustakas fantasy.  It involves some PG-13 nudity.  2011 Projections:  50/17/75/.280

David Freese – I’d actually rank Freese above Chris Johnson overall if he’s healthy.  I only slotted him down here to highlight him.  If he shows up to camp healthy, he could surprise with some power.  In 464 Triple-A at-bats in 2008, he hit 26 homers.  In 2009, he hit a homer every 20 at-bats.  He’s probably not going to blow your mind with his stats, but he’s being drafted crazy late, if at all, and could surprise.  2011 Projections:  70/20/80/.300/3

99 Responses

  1. DrEasy says:
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    I see your point about Bautista, but I think you’re selling him short. Even in that month of September that you used to bash him with, he still hit 11 homers. Yes, he’s due for a regression, but not from 54 down to 25. The 13 HR he hit in 2009? 10 of them came in September/October. Obviously he has figured something out. 30 HR would be a worst-case scenario in my opinion. I don’t disagree with the low average though (which will still come with a high OBP, but that’s not relevant to fantasy). I’d put him solidly in the Reynolds tier. It’s all irrelevant anyway, as I’m sure someone will go nuts and draft him way too early…

    And then there’s a dark horse: Edwin Encarnacion. If he plays a full season, he’s capable of 30HR. I’m not sure if he’s eligible for 3B. He’s currently slated to share 1B/DH duties with Lind, but this could all change if the Jays end up signing a guy like Manny or Nick Johnson, which would then push EE to 3B, Bautista to RF, and Rajai Davis to the bench (at least that’s what a lot of us Jays fans are hoping for!). If eligible, he’d be my late round flyer (flier?) at 3B. He’d belong at the very least to the MMD tier.

  2. Mike from Jersey says:
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    I think the average on Bautista will hover around .250, but I think your very very low on his power. The year before this monster year, he apparantly had a hitting instructor change his stance late season. In 2009 september + october he hit 10 homers. He had 4 months of double digits last year! He has atleast 30 home run power. At an adp of 54, he’s not a terrible value. I guess it depends how you start your draft, but there’s worse things than taking a possible 40 homer guy with your 5th rounder. It’s entirely possible he gets figured out and hits like .230, but I personally think he hits 30 homers regardless. One other guy I dont like is Alvarez. His k-rate was garbage last year, he’ll get mediocre runs and almost no steals. I dont HATE him. But I think he’s overhyped. However, I agree with your projections on him, so anyone just hoping for those, and possibly some upside, are fine drafting him. But some people are drafting him as the 6th or 7th best 3b and i disagree severly with that. And finally, im glad you added in Freese. I think healthy he will surprise, and will probably hit 5th. Nice to hit behind holliday and pujols. Sorry for the novel, hope you and your full mustache enjoyed your b-day.

  3. here’s the thing about bautista: he doesn’t strike out! his K% was like 20. that’s exactly average. and he walks relentlessly, 14%+. i came for the 54 homers, but i’m staying for the sharp eye. i don’t think you can fake something like that over a full season.

    he hit .224 in september but his K rate was actually down that month from his season rate and he still hit more homers than anybody except for tulo. his BABIP was .167. if that’s supposed to look like the pitchers figuring him out, it doesn’t. you could just as truly say he hit .287 with increased power after the ASB. i feel like grey is just mad at him for hitting 54 homers without a permit.

    possible the pitchers will try some new approach with him, pounding him outside – it’s true that he’s a weirdly extreme pull hitter. but that’s really my only concern. and i think if they do that he’ll just take walks and wait for mistakes. they can’t throw 100% of the pitches outside forever or he’ll know what’s coming and just start standing on top of the plate.

    now i’m not saying he’s going to hit 54 again, but, neither is anybody else. thinking about whether i should just delete this because i’ve really been enjoying getting him at the end of the 4th round.

    btw, my theory on his weirdly low BABIP is that all of his well-hit balls go over the fence, so, no BABIP.

  4. @Mike from Jersey: Freese will bat either 2nd, 6th, or 7th, depending on how LaRussa decides to do the lineup (which is anyone’s guess). Berkman is slotted for the 5th spot right now. So, it will most likely be 6th for Freese, which wouldn’t be bad since he’d be behind behind Rasmus, Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman. All guys who had .360+ obp last year, so there will be a lot of guys on in front of him. If he can stay on the field, he’ll have a solid year.

  5. Eddy says:
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    Is round 8 (ADP 96) a reach for Alvarez or just fine?

    Love the Baustista blurb. This controversy excites me.

  6. Bartaksu says:
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    @Eddy: MDC has Alvarez at 87 with a range of 60 to 110, but that might be due to some pre-ranking bias on the site. I’m with Grey, going to try to snag him for my corner infidel spot in every league.

  7. sean says:
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    @Grey: Amen about being pot-committed to the Pirates. Between the Dread Pirate and Pedro Upsidio, there is going to be a lot of scrambling to see if the two runs in the 7-2 loss were created by our guys.

    @Mike from Jersey: Do you honestly believe that a tweak to Bautista’s stance took him from a 15 HR guy to the most prolific power hitter in the league? Even Brady Anderson thinks Bautista ’10 is an outlier.

  8. Eddy says:
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    @Bartaksu:

    Yea that’s where I’ve usually been taking him. I just want to know if it may be a bit early. But with 3B being so shallow, I think it’s worth it.

  9. Yep, I said it.... says:
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    Do I have to say it? Yep, I do. Where is Chipper? :::grin:::

  10. Tony says:
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    How can some of you guys really believe in Bautista? LOL!!! do you really read this site? YOU CANT! STOP LYING!

    One year wonder, throw out all the stats you want. Not buying it. If he hit over 40 this year I’d shizz my pants.

    Nice ranks grey, 3B is going to be tough again this year. I think I’m going to have to seriously consider my strategy from last year again of getting out of the first and second round with my 3B and a 1B.

  11. GopherDay says:
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    I am committed to Bautista….As in, if he falls to the 8th round I’ll spend my pick on him in whatever league I’m in.

  12. GopherDay says:
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    @GopherDay: Wait? He’s going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds???? Well Darn, I guess I’m not too commited. :P

  13. DrEasy says:
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    Another thing about Bautista: he played a good part of the season with a sports hernia! Imagine what he’ll do when fully healthy (assuming recovery from the surgery won’t also affect him negatively).

  14. Max says:
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    I’d rather have Bautista instead Reynolds, McGehee, Young and Beltre… and by a lot.
    Although +40 HR are impossible, 30 Hr is the worst case scenario. His fricking BABIP was .233! Even with a drop in the HR production his BA will remain around .260/.270 because his BABIP will regress. His strikeout percentage is OK (and excellent for a slugger). He walks a lot and his OBP will always be high (which makes him even more valuable in my OBP leagues). My projections are .260/.360/.500 and, outside the top 5, I don’t see another 3B with that kind of numbers.

  15. joe from point pleasant says:
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    @ sean and mike from jersey:

    Bautista did not tweek his stance… that had nothing to do with it. What he did was change his approach. There is a stage in every hitters swing where he starts his hands up, and shifts his weight to his back leg. Hitting instructors like to call this “loading up”. Bautista realized that he was having trouble getting his hands to the ball, and he was late on a lot of pitches. This in turn limits your extension, and thus limits your ability to drive the ball with authority. Bautista decided to make a change, and load up much earlier in his swing. He loads VERY early in his stance, and his idea seemed to work very well. It is also partial explanation for his pull-happy tendencies because he very rarely lets a pitch get far enough in on his hands to point where he is hitting the ball the other way. And

    While i dont think he will match last seasons gaudy HR total, i do feel he should have absolutely noooooooo trouble hitting 30-35 homeruns this season. My projection for him would probably be about 37 homers. Average will be a crap-shoot as i could see .230 or .265. I think he will be somewhere towards the middle of that range. This being said, i would probably rank him just ahead of mark reynolds.

    Can a change in your approach make that much of a difference? Yes, it can. A lot of these major league hitters have the talent and raw power to hit tons of home runs but not all of them do it. Why? Because certain hitters have found the right approach to do it, and others struggle to figure it all out at the plate. At the big league level approach has just as much to do with success as talent does. Just ask alex gordon.

  16. Mr.MojoRisin says:
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    No Dayan Viciedo honorable mention?
    4 of your top 5 are being saved in my league, so I am likely to punt 3B. If my draft were held to day, I’d target Viciedo very late.

  17. @DrEasy: unless the sports hernia was the SOURCE of his mysterious power

    @sean: yeah, i do.

    thing is, bautista was a real prospect. but then he got rule 5′d and bounced around the majors for years. never finished his high-minors development. so it makes some sense that he’d be a late bloomer. there’s late blooming and then there’s some serious late blooming, clearly. but, there he is.

    they got his front foot planted earlier so he could turn on fastballs. and if you watch him hit now, he really turns on fastballs. he looks like longoria up there, just whipping them. the work with the coach happened around july of 09. then he was bad in august. then starting on like september 8th he hit 10 homers. then an offsesason went by. then he hit a bunch of homers in the spring. then last year happened. i think at this point it’s a bigger leap of faith to think the coaching didn’t change anything than to think it did.

    i mean, he hit the homers somehow. what do YOU think happened? something did. unrepeatable flukes also have explanations (usually). you think he’s the same guy he always was and just happened to hit 54 homers by, what, luck? is that really more likely?

    i read about his history and the coaching back in mid-may when he was on his first power binge, decided it kind of made sense, and picked him up. kept him through the june slump. so i haven’t just started thinking this lately.

    http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/09/22/jose-bautista-and-the-big-5-0/

    …but by all means yes, he’s a fluke, nobody draft him

  18. Wilsonian says:
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    Yo yo yo…I’m back and getting in full baseball swing (and I will make every attempt at updating who’s in and who’s out – fantasy relevant of course – much in the same way I did during last year’s playoffs). I’m actually mid-draft in one league already (well, first round at least). Anythewhoo, I’ve got a legit question for ya:

    It’s a ridiculously small 8 team keeper league (H2H) where we keep 5, and it doesn’t matter who we keep, and it has no effect on draft, salaries, etc., it’s just the first 5 picks taken for your team. I’m at a loss of who to keep. Here’s the roster:

    C – Buck
    1B – Fielder
    2B – Utley
    3B – Longoria, Wright
    SS – Drew
    OF – Holliday, Kemp, Krispie, CarGo, Hart, Stanton, Stubbs

    SP – Lincecum, JJ, Verlander, Hamels, Kershaw, Dempster
    RP – Lyon, Soria, Capps, Feliz

    I’m at a loss as to who to keep. I think I gotta go with Wright and Longo (we play two UTIL spots, so that isn’t an issue), and I’m pretty sure CarGo is in as well.

    Who would be your 5? Assume general stats count with OPS and Ks/9. Thanks Grey!

  19. Yogi says:
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    So I’m kind of torn (like Natalie Imbruglia). Should I keep Pedro Alvarez for $1 or Kelly Johnson for $2? Both of these guys seems to be of similar value, but is it worth the shot that Alvarez could be on his way to bigger things while Kelly Johnson may have already popped the cherry on his fantasy ceiling?

  20. @joe from point pleasant: yeah, i have the same gut-feel projection of about 37, 38 homers for him. there’ll be more of a book on him, people will come after him with more changeups and whatnot. (according to fangraphs pitch values that’s his only kryptonite.) so basically adam dunn, plus ten steals, at third base. which is pretty ok. although i actually think bautista has a little more potential to sneak in with a higher average than a dunn or a reynolds, because he’s not striking out like those guys. his low average was mostly coming from a low BABIP. which i don’t think was “bad luck” – i think it’s connected to his approach and unique bautista-ness somehow. dunno, haven’t totally figured that part out. he had a bad LD% and huge spike in FB%, was clearly just trying to homer every time. and it worked! but the fact that he hit .287 in the second half is sort of interesting.

    btw, the good stuff on bautista in that posnanski article i linked before is down at the bottom. there’s a lot of boring rambling about history and football quarterbacks at the beginning.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DrEasy: I like the term Bautista-ness, don’t think I’d use it the same way.

    @Mike from Jersey: Zobrist had a hitting instructor change his approach when he hit 27 homers in 2009. Then I guess he changed it back when he hit 10 homers in 2010.

    @Eddy: Just fine.

    @Yep, I said it….: Guessing at the doctor’s office.

    @Tony: Thanks…

    @DrEasy: You’re a Jays fan, it’s sweet.

    @Mr.MojoRisin: Yeah, he’ll be mentioned at some point once I see him in spring training starting.

    @Wilsonian: Longoria, Wright, Kemp, Fielder, Utley…

    @Yogi: Alvarez…

  22. @Roger: for some reason didn’t see your post until just now. yeah that article says a lot of the same stuff i’ve been saying (new approach, changeups, FB%, the bad BABIP probably not being bad luck) – in fact i just repeated like half of their reasoning on here before i’d read it. so it’s nice to see different branches of the cult of bautista coming to the same conclusions.

  23. joe from point pleasant says:
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    @GopherDay:
    If you plan on using Bautista as your 3bmen, it would be suitable to draft him at an ADP anywhere from 42-54. That makes him anywhere from a mid 4th round to a mid 5th round pick in a 12 team league. Pick 66 and later would make him a steal based purely off upside. If he gets a little luck imagine a .270 100r 40 hr 110 rbi season from a third basemen. Translation: Fantasy Gold.

    Like I said, .250/93r/32hr/95rbi/5sb is probably closer to what you can “expect”.

    As for my projections: .250/98r/37hr/100rbi/5sb is what think he does.

    I simply can’t see him scoring as little runs as Grey has projected for him considering his on base skills. I look at Bautista as Adam Dunn at 3b minus the strikeouts.

  24. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey:
    Wow, you would keep Kemp over CarGo, even after their respective 2010s?

  25. joe from point pleasant says:
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    @wily mo:

    weird how i made the same comparison to adam dunn before i actually read your post lol!

  26. Ned Shakeshaft says:
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    @Roger:

    Don’t listen to these guys. They’re awful. Go look at that free magazine they put out last year and see how they made out.

  27. Ned Shakeshaft says:
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    Fantasy Pros 911, that is.

  28. polczek5 says:
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    Reyes for Hamilton. Who do you prefer?

  29. GopherDay says:
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    @joe from point pleasant: Well, from MDC’s ADP so far, the players being drafted right around Bautista: Uggla, McCutchen, Heyward, and Werth. I think I’d rather stick with one of the safer picks in the 5th round than gamble of a 3B that *might* give me 30+ HRs but that also has a high chance of hitting me 10.

    Maybe I’m still sore that I traded him in my dynasty league after home run #10. :P

  30. GopherDay says:
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    @polczek5: Really depends on your roster…If you have depth at SS and a crummy outfield then go for it, but if your outfield is strong and you don’t have anything at SS then you might want to reconsider.

    In a bubble though, you should probably take that.

  31. polczek5 says:
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    @GopherDay: To clarrify, I’d get Reyes (don’t have another SS right now, we are mid-draft, 10 team league). I have good depth at OF (Kemp, Pence, Rasmus, Stubbs). I guess your response confirms my thought that they are pretty close in value. Thanks.

  32. The Dude says:
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    I can’t believe how many Bautista fanboy’s have made their way here, perhaps some of you are new to Razzball? Everyone of you has some rational or statistical explanation for his breakout season. But the common theme that you all site is that there’s some intangible something about what he did last year that you can’t quite pinpoint. It’s like you WANT it to happen again more than you expect it to. I can understand this from the Jay’s fans (I hold the same hope and bias for the A’s) – but the rest of you should be ashamed of yourselves.

    Another thing that bugs me about Bautista is his cocky ass attitude. I think this might contribute to a sharp decline this year. After he hit about 25-30 HR last year he was practically pointing to the fence at each AB a la Babe Ruth. Blech.

  33. polczek5 says:
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    @The Dude: “I hold the same hope and bias for the A’s”

    I second that. Cahill for the Cy Young! Go A’s!

  34. Tony says:
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    @GopherDay: gopher thats exactly what I was just wondering “who is going around this guy that people are gambling on him?”

    I would take any of those guys named above over Bautista. Man if this isn’t paying for last year then I dont know what is! Way too much risk too. It’s not like he’s Carlos Gonzalez here and we’re debating on a young rising star! The guy is turning 30 this year, he DOUBLED, let me say that again, DOUBLED his 7 season MLB HR total!!!!! Sure in alot of those previous 6 years he got around 400 AB’s, so he was averaging 15 HR’s per year, lets give him 20 if he woulda got 600 AB’s……

    HE DOUBLED HIS TOTAL. Good luck to those of you who are in love.

    @joe from point pleasant: love the baseball technique talk, you were the guy who played college, etc right? LOAD THE HANDS! haha…. I’ve got my coaching clinic this weekend for the state, good times.

  35. joe from point pleasant says:
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    @ GopherDay:

    Of the guys you listed the only ones id consider taking over Bautista are Heyward and McCutchen. I like heywards upside and think he can be awesome this year. McCutchen could be a VERY valuable player if he could somehow boost his power and make it to 20 HR’s. He is probably more of a 15/30 guy though, and he may continue to struggle driving in runs in pittsburgh. Im not sure who I would take first between these three but it is certainly close.

    I like Uggla but i think 3b is much more shallow than 2b. Werth I would not even consider.

  36. tom thumb says:
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    The only good point made about Bautista is that it makes more sense for there a tangible explanation then that there isn’t any at all. I admire the effort, though, because as Grey mentioned, after the top 4 it isn’t pretty. I can’t pay the price for Longo or Wright unless I’m absolutely certain Prince will be there. Here’s hoping I don’t have to 1. Hope bautista is for real 2. Hope Reynolds bounces back 3. Hope Alvarez and the pirates can score or 4. Hope mini mini donkey can outdo mini donkey. Wow, that’s a lot of hoping

  37. joe from point pleasant says:
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    @Tony:

    Haha yup. That was drilled into my head from age 12 until I quit playing.

    As a 12 year old i hit only 1 regular season homerun in the “in-town” league. That very same summer, while playing on my travelling team, my coach first taught me to load and i had a bautistian season. 13 homeruns in one summer including a Cooperstown Field on Dreams record 4 homeruns in 4 consecutive at bats. (i was intentionally walked in my 5th at bat) I guess you could say this was a technique that worked well for me too so I know where Bautista is coming from. LOL.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: Yup

    @polczek5: Depends what’s around them. I’d probably go with Reyes.

  39. @tom thumb: the pirates lineup isn’t actually half bad this year. pedro, mccutchen, walker, tabata, those are all interesting young hitters. overbay isn’t young or interesting but he’s present. they could score a few runs. they’re still going to be terrible, of course, but it’s mostly because they have no rotation to speak of.

    @The Dude: i don’t feel like my bautista talk is particularly new-agey. i certainly think it’s more specific than the people who are saying he can’t be for real because he just can’t, obviously, because he wasn’t before, brady anderson. so what happened? plus, i mean, i started thinking of him this way in may, so it’s already kind of been tested once.

    http://twitter.com/#!/wilymotown/status/14564672828
    http://twitter.com/#!/wilymotown/status/14564729849
    http://twitter.com/#!/wilymotown/status/14564801661

    i’m not denying that with such a short track record as an impact player there’s a greater risk that the new approach will fall apart or the pitchers will find a new way to attack him. but to act like that’s a foregone conclusion, he’s all downside, or deny that he even has a new approach, the whole thing was just some freaky dream, just seems stubborn to me.

    i don’t want anything except for my teams to win. just looking at what’s in front of me.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11294279

    …also, i think figgins is in the same situation as youk, e.g. won’t be eligible in drafts but the mariners are starting him at 3B this year so he’ll pick it up right off the bat. so to speak.

  40. Swagger Jackers says:
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    @Grey: Is it too much to ask to have you paste the commentary for the players from other lists (i.e. 1-4, 14 and 16) instead of clicking, “already went over him in such and such list?” It would be ideal to read your wise commentary for all the 3B’s together instead of clicking back and forth to read one from a couple days ago. Just a suggestion.

  41. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    My simple theory on Bautista, given AB’s he produces. The chance to get regular AB is a confidence booster. Whether he changed his stance, swing or technique, it all comes down to he cashed in on opportunity that he was given by Cito. Everyone on the Blue Jays mashed like BA didn’t matter. Only other year besides last he had consistent AB’s was 2007 with the pirates, he didnt do half bad. So do i think he hits 54 again, no, but he will be in the 30′s.

    Also no love for Cuddyer who is eligible in some leagues? Maybe around 16?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Smokey: Cuddyer hit 14 homers in 675 plate appearances. I wouldn’t want him in a 15 team league.

  43. Chris says:
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    Would anyone be able to recommend a place for me to find a good $ keeper league? No way I’d be able to drum up enough interest with just personal friends and most of the fantasy baseball sites that put leagues together (like razzball) are of the re-draft variety. I do think a razzball keeper league would be awesome… though I do understand it’d probably have to be outside the “official” RCL structure, so as not to screw with the overall leagues’ standings and such, given the different rules and game type.

    If anyone has an opening in their league, or a site recommendation, I’d appreciate it.

  44. Eric W says:
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    12 team yahoo style mock. thoughts criticism concerns?

    C Matt Wieters R11 P6
    1B Joey Votto R1 P6
    1B Brandon Allen R23 P6
    2B Brandon Phillips R4 P7
    SS Alcides Escobar R16 P7
    3b Kevin Youkilis R3 P6
    3B Ian Stewart R10 P7
    OF Josh Hamilton R2 P7
    OF Andrew McCutchen R5 P6
    OF Grady Sizemore R8 P7
    OF Colby Rasmus R9 P6
    OF Carlos Beltran R18 P7
    OF Nyjer Morgan R20 P7
    SP Cole Hamels R6 P7
    SP Tommy Hanson R7 P6
    SP Max scherzer R12
    SP Madison Bumgarner R14
    SP Carlos Zambrano R19 P6
    SP Edinson Volquez R21 P6
    SP Brian Duensing R22 P7
    RP Francisco Rodriguez R13 P6
    RP Kevin Gregg R15 P6
    RP Mike Adams R17 P6

  45. Mets fan says:
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    Grey I know you havnt did your sp rankings yet but what’s your thoughts on hellickson and Daniel Hudson are they worth there current adp?

  46. Swagger Jackers says:
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    @Grey: Boo! If you give me access to your site, I’ll copy and paste it for you.

  47. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Hey, just a little additional perspective on Bautista. Say he gives you the 32 HR. If you prorate his R and RBI at the same percentage (32HR/54HR), he gives you 65 R and 73 RBI. I realize it isn’t quite that simple, but … If you are only looking for HR and little else, you can find that a lot lower in the draft.

    BTW: Rajai’s lifetime BA against the AL east (yes, small 122 ABs) is .164. Little reason to think he will be setting the table for a lot of RBI. Cust Kayin’.

  48. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: And sadly he’s my placeholder in my 14 team dyansty league til Moose makes it to the bigs. I’m afraid I’ll have to deal with him for a while, because none of the other options are available. Oh the joy…

  49. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Are you doing the top 20 OF, then top 20 SP or top 20 OF, then the top 40 OF?

  50. GopherDay says:
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    Random fact…Clayton Kershaw is, in fact, YOUNGER than Hellickson…food for thought.

  51. Wilsonian says:
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    I’ve got a real live draft pick coming up (we do it on Blogs and you have 12 hours to make your selection – the draft lasts for about a month – and there are two more picks until me). So far this is my roster: Heyward, Wright, Hamilton, Dunn, Lester.

    By all accounts, it looks like these guys are the best available:

    Victorino, Gardner, Krispie, Andrus, Stubbs, Bourn, Beltre, Adam (Pacman) Jones, Delmon, Marcum, Feliz, Scherzer, Konerko, Grady, Wieters, Bay, Zobrist, Lind (these are their rankings on the CBS top 300 – which I hate using, but your full list isn’t out yet).

    Who do I take? Pretty general stats with OPS and Ks/9.

  52. AJK says:
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    What pick would you jump in on bautista (or advise others to)? There must be some point where it becomes good value based on your assesment

  53. Wilsonian says:
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    @Wilsonian:

    Pitching is going FAST and D-Hud is also available. I’m looking strongly at Scherzer, but want to know your opinion out of those guys.

    Thanks dood!

  54. Tony says:
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    Bautista is like in poker when you’ve got KK and you preflop raise, you get two callers and an ace hits the flop, you KNOW one guy has an ace but you’re just not smart enough to let your KK go……

  55. @Tony: i don’t play poker. it sounds frustrating.

    one last thing about bautista and then i’m leaving it alone. like i said at the beginning, i’m not sure what’s in it for me to sell people on him. (unless i’m lying!)

    but, one last thing. it’s his contract year!

  56. Every year there are guys ranked and drafted in the top two rounds on potential alone;guys who can’t miss this year(upton,upton,sizemore,andrus,etc.,etc.).I got caught up in the bs last year and used a late 1st on justin upton.Never again.I do know one thing.Bautista did it. It’s in the books.None of the above have yet,or may ever.

  57. Tony says:
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    @wily mo: haha… poker is great. If i can get Bautista in about the 9th round I’ll think about it LOL…..

    There’s more reliable players to take where he’s being taken. If he goes for another 35-50 HR’s this year, good for everyone who believed in him! You flipped the coin and won! If he flops…. oops.

  58. Elijah says:
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    @Grey:

    +5 style points for the Luis Polonia reference. Keep up the good work!

  59. Earl Battey says:
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    Wow, there are divergent opinions on Jose Bausplitsta. I’m glad I’m keeping Longoria so I don’t need to think about it.

  60. cruisinkc says:
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    Hey Grey…need some help in my other keeper league. The league is a standard 10 team 5 X 5 roto espn league. Each team keeps 3 players and then the draft just starts in the 4th round with the non-keepers.

    I have 4 top 15 players to choose from:

    Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, David Wright, and Chase Utley.

    The league does have the corner and middle infielder slots so thats where Votto was all of last year.

    Which 3 do I choose?

  61. Tony says:
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    @cruisinkc: id go miggy, votto, and wright and leave utley to the draft since he’s somewhat of an injury concern, the other 3 are TOP 8 players, utley is right behind them…. 2B is deep enough you’ll be fine.

  62. Eddy says:
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    @GopherDay:

    Hmm, that Kershaw tidbit was quite interesting. I didn’t know that.

    I have to say that Kershaw is the only SP who I have a full on mancrush on. His raw K potential makes me downright drool.

  63. Eddy says:
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    Anyone know if Rodney is the CL on the Angels now?

    And is Fuentes the CL in OAK or are we going to have a hanrahananan/meek migraine all season long between Fuentes and Bailey?

  64. @Eddy: as far as i’ve heard it’s kinda unclear in ANA, leaning rodney based mostly on handedness, and bailey’s still the guy in oakland.

  65. Steve says:
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    Bah. Rockies sign Joe Crede with an invite to camp. Might not turn into anything but could hurt MMD if it does.

  66. Eddy says:
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    @wily mo:

    Ah I see. Rodney performed well for the time Fuentes was out last year. I think he was 4/4 in SV Opps, so I’m sure they’ll choose him.

    Thanks for the info!

  67. Swagger Jackers says:
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    The ESPN position rankings are coming out right now and they’re about as vanilla as you can get.

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Eh, you’ll be okay.

    @GopherDay: All OFs then all SPs.

    @Wilsonian: Andrus

    @AJK: After the 8th round.

    @Tony: I’d say it’s like you won your last hand with a pair of threes then you go all in with a pair of eights and lose.

    @Elijah: Thanks!

    @Earl Battey: Kinda surprises me.

    @cruisinkc: Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, David Wright

    @Steve: They already have Wiggy, how much are they going to bury MMD?

  69. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Donkey-deep?

  70. Tony says:
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    @Grey: another wise analogy grey…. Even with all your wisdom you’re dealing out people wanna hold onto 2010 Jose Bautista….

    All i remember last year is when the season ended and I was talking to my best friend who is in my long time league, and I said “man i can’t wait to see which schmuck will take jose bautista in the 3rd round next year!”

    Cheers!

  71. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    @Tony: So you’re saying if Bautista has a good season people who drafted him got lucky; if he has a bad season people who didn’t draft him were smart?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Donkey dung at this point.

    @Tony: Opposition is welcome, I’m surprised there’s opposition about Bautista of all people.

  73. Steve says:
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    Good news for MR. Bs everywhere. The Qualls-to-the-Padres deal is official.

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Thanks for the heads up!

  75. Steve says:
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    @Grey: That said, he’s probably in the queue behind Gregerson and Adams.

  76. Steve says:
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    @Steve: And I’d forgotten how bad Qualls was last year, though there’s nothing like a move to Petco to help in that regard.

    Oh – and the Rays now have 13 of the first 90 picks in the 2012 amateur draft.

  77. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: There’s an MR factory there.

  78. steve b says:
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    wily mo:Its a fallacy players do better in their contract year.I will find the study and post it or provide a link.Its 50 % or less.It would be good if they could play better at will.Most players try hard all the time

  79. Steve says:
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    @Grey: So they say (emoticon).

  80. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    ESPN has Youk ahead of Howard, Fielder, Tex…

  81. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @simply fred: head-scratcher

  82. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: Looks like everyone except the ESPN janitor got some input into those rankings.

  83. @steve b: yeah, i was sorta kidding about the contract year thing. that’s probably about the 18th most important factor to consider on bautista at this point.

  84. Steve says:
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    @Steve: Or judging by some of the rankings, maybe he did.

  85. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    I have a really bad bio pic can i be a baseball expert too?

  86. GopherDay says:
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    @simply fred: What the schlumberger?

    @Smokey: So, what exactly are you doing in that picture…pot? ;)

  87. GopherDay says:
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    @Steve: Maybe the janitor sat on the keyboard?

  88. winthorp says:
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    Bautista been swingin a bat since he was 2…12 months a year..24 hours a day…south america during the off season.

    Has actually swung the bat more than any man living or who ever will live.

    And has finally figured out how.

    Last year played paralyzed from the waist down. Swung with just his left pinkie holding the bat hoping to bop the ball over the 3rd baseman’s head..

    Says he goin for homers this year.

    If Bautista hits 25 or less, then well hell.

  89. Ray says:
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    Grey-I am going back and forth on a keeper league decision for a 12 team, NL-only keeper league. Do I keep a $29 Aramis Ramirez this year, or throw him back? I own Zimmerman @ $22 and Alvarez @ $5, but can put Aram at U. League has 15 hitters and 9 pitchers, and power hitters do not come cheap on draft day.

  90. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @winthorp: Ha!

    @Ray: I think you have to throw him back but I don’t know your other options.

  91. BKK says:
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    Grey, I been picking seventh in mocks (my draft position in league) and I seem to get Votto consistently in rd 1. When it comes back around I usually have a choice of Zimm, Youk, Howard, Fielder. Kemp Holliday. Would you go Zimm and lock up 3rd? Or if you had the choice between Votto and wright, go with wright and take a 1B in the 2nd round?

  92. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BKK: As long as you get a 1B and 3B you should be good.

  93. Black Beard says:
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    Not having a keeper third baseman makes me sad emoticon.

Comments are closed.