Fantasy Baseball Advice

Our blogpal Roto Authority is hosting this week’s Fantasy Roundtable.  Sir Rudy Gamblelot voiced his opinions as well as several of the other knights on this topic…

Name the player who is the worst value for his average draft position, within the first three rounds.

Can’t say I agree with every suggestion (I’m too chivalrous to say which ones) but it’s an interesting read….

There is a fundamental divide amongst fantasy baseball drafters:  those who hate drafting pitchers in the first 8 rounds and those who don’t.

I am the latter.  I’m not saying I prefer to draft pitching over hitting.  Much like Billy Beane at the Winter Meetings and Billy Bean at a Winter Sale, I’m always looking for a good deal.  If people want to overvalue hitters and undervalue pitchers, I’ll draft some pitchers.

Rather than proselytize my drafting philosophy in this post, I’m just going to look back at Rounds 3-8 of 2008 and objectively analyze the findings.

The analysis was based on the following:

• Players are valued (ACT PS) based on 10 team ‘Point Shares’ for a MLB C / 1B / 2B / SS / 3B / CI /MI / 5 OF/ 9 P universe. Point Shares are the estimated increase or decrease that a player would provide the average fantasy team if replacing the average player at his position.
• Draft position value (EXP PS) estimated by taking the Point Share total for the player who finished with that ranking – e.g., Mark Teixeira finished in 25th with 3.39 point shares so this was the Expected Point Shares for the 25th draft pick.
• ADP (Average Draft Position) from MockDraftCentral.com
• Green shading = Player delivered above value; Yellow shading = Player delivered close to value (ACT PS – EXP PS = 0 – -2.0); Orange shading = Player delivered far below value (ACT PS – EXP PS < -2.0)

Here are the final totals by position:

Notes: Rounds 3-8 are tougher than they appear. More than half the picks delivered far below their expected value. The only position that delivered above average value – aka the best bargain – were relief pitchers (K-Rod, Papelbon, and Nathan were the bargains). Most hitting positions are about 50/50 with one glaring exception – shortstops. The only SS that was even close to a good value was Michael Young as Jeter, C-Guile, Tulo, Tejada, and Furcal all disappointed.

Starting Pitching is definitely the most extreme. There were some great bargains (CC, Hamels, Haren) as well as several busts (Bedard, Verlander, Smoltz, Harang, etc.). If we were to apply our ‘risky pitcher‘ criteria to the 13 pitchers drafted between 21-80 in 2008, it would’ve ignored the 5 value starters (though Sabathia and Hamels were close to +700 pitches from previous year) and flagged Kazmir (+700 pitch spike), Lackey (27+% breaking pitches), Smoltz (27+% breaking pitches), and Bedard (27+% breaking pitches). So that would leave 5 great picks and 4 horrible picks. Not great but better value then seen in the hitting positions…

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere.  To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team.  We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Tigers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Bill Ferris from The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

1) Last year’s acquisition of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera led to a defensive rotation that saw 3 regulars (Guillen, Cabrera, and Inge) bounce around the field.  Has the musical chairs ended?  Does Carlos Guillen really play the whole year in LF?

I think Guillen will get the most at-bats out there, but I’d see that being only about 60-65% or so. The impending injury to Gary Sheffield will likely free up the DH spot at some point and things will get shuffled around. I think he’ll likely fare okay  at the position, but it will be other factors that may force him to move (like the need for more offense in the infield for example).

2) What are your thoughts on Verlander and Bonderman for 2009?  Bounceback candidates or more challenges to come?

I expect more from both of them. I think Verlander will make the tweak or two he needs to regain his control. Plus he didn’t pitch that badly in terms of his peripherals last year, I’d expect some natural regression (progression) towards his FIP numbers. Bonderman I think will be a big boost to the rotation. He’s had injury problems the last 2 years, but last year’s injury should have him available to pitch the bulk of the season. Plus it gave his elbow some extra rest and I think he’ll be healthier and more effective than at any point in his career.

3) Would you take the over or under on the following HR/RBI projections:  Miguel Cabrera 35/110, Gary Sheffield 20/80, Magglio Ordonez 20/100, Adam Everett 2/40?

Over, Under, Over, Push.

4) Who ends up with more saves:  Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, or Joel Zumaya?

Brandon Lyon. If Zumaya is healthy I think he’ll be the guy ultimately, but given that is such a big IF I’m penciling him in for 0 at the moment.

5) My blogmate Grey sports an impressive moustache.  Rank the moustaches of these noteworthy Detroit Tigers baseball cap wearers:  Jack Morris, Jim Leyland, Kirk Gibson, Chet Lemon, Magnum PI?

Great question. Tom Selleck in a landslide followed by Jack Morris, Kirk Gibson, Jim Leyland and lastly Chet Lemon. As an aside, I saw Tom Selleck hit a couple balls out during batting practice at Tiger Stadium one time and this is one of my favorite TV scenes of all time (see below)

Today we are going to examine the most important fantasy baseball-related decision you will make all year: Choosing a team name.

Now, some of you will read this and say, “Dude, I’ve been calling my team the Jim Rice-A-Ronis since ’82 and I ain’t gonna change that now.” To which I say, “Godspeed, sir! You are a San Francisco Treat!”

Others will say, “Dude, the kind folk at Razzball have offered up this handy fantasy baseball team name generator for the team-name-impaired, and I’ve made good use of it, christening my 2009 squad the Rabid Booty Shorts.*” To which I say, “Godspeed to you too, sir! You are also, in your own way, a San Francisco treat.”

(*Real-name suggestion I actually received. Excellent.)

However, there are those of us who are constantly, heroically, obsessively striving to find that better, perfect name. For example, as an impressionable teenager, the Baron would sit in his bedroom while other kids were chasing skirts and lighting bottle rockets and I’d study the original Rotisserie League Baseball guide (represent!). I always marveled at the clever team names contained therein. Dan Okrent ran the Okrent Fenokies! Steve Wulf piloted the Wulfgang! Michael Pollet captained the Pollet Burros (think Soviet Russia)! Cork Smith helmed the Smith Coronas!

My favorite team name by far, though, belonged to Rob Fleder, who ran the Fleder Mice. This was a pun on Die Fledermaus, an operetta by Johan Strauss, the title of which means “The Bat” or, translated literally, “The Flutter Mouse.” DO YOU SEE HOW CLEVER THAT IS? Yes! Did I understand that reference at all when I was sixteen years old? Of course not! I barely understand it now!

But from that moment on, I was hooked on fantasy names like some kids are hooked on heroin and others are hooked on phonics.

Sadly, the Baron’s Christian name is not as pun friendly as, say, Steve Wulf. And my knowledge of Strauss is lacking. So I have been forced to adopt other fantasy-team-naming strategies. Over the years, I’ve scoured the globe to collect the deadliest, wickedest, most fearsome team-naming techniques (as well as some absolute clunkers), which I will share with you today. (Then, in the comments, I hope you will share your favorite/most regrettable team names of yore, so they can be celebrated/mocked accordingly.)

Without further ado, here is everything you ever wanted to know about how to – and how not to — name your fantasy team:

1. The Pun-On-Favorite-Player’s-Name Names. Personally, I just don’t get this approach. I mean, I understand the part about how you love Ichiro Suzuki or Cole Hamels or Albert Pujols. I even see the charm of names like Honey-Nut Ichiros or Hamels Toe or Albert’s Poo Holes. What I don’t understand is WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU TRADE THAT GUY? Seriously, you have a whole team of players walking around with HONEY NUT ICHIROS emblazoned on their chests, and Ichiro’s not even on the team? That is bad for clubhouse morale. Plus, if you ever meet Albert Pujols in a bar, do you really want to start the conversation by saying, “Hey, I once had a team called the Poo Holes.” No, you do not. GRADE: C

2. The Pun-On-Your-Hometown-Team’s-Name Names. I think this is more popular in Fantasy Football, or at least that’s what I gathered from that pretty amusing ESPN commercial with those teams named Behind the Steel Curtain and Boston TD Party and what not. The Baron doesn’t play fantasy football. Is this site called RazzFootball? If this method appeals to you, go over to a fantasy football site, read about Anquan Boldin, then name your team The Boldin The Beautiful. You’re welcome. GRADE: D

3. Dirty Sports Puns. Ah, an old chestnut. (In fact, the team name The Old Chestnuts could conceivably belong in this category, if this was 1852.) Here’s a more current example: The Backdoor Sliders. Think about it! Personally, the Baron doesn’t go this route, being a gentleman of refined humors. But he fully respects that there’s a good argument to be made for simply calling your team Balls Deep every single year. GRADE: B

4. Timely References to Current Events. This is probably the most popular naming convention in my current league. Our winner last year was called the B-12 Chewables, which I liked. (I liked his name from the year before even better: A-Rod Drinks Zima. It’s funny because it’s true.) Last year, mid-election, we had two different teams with puns on Obama-related hope slogans. The upside: People think you are smart about politics. The downside: You spend all year with a team called the Audacious Hopers. Worth it? I think not. GRADE: C plus.

5. Olde-tyme baseball players. Now we’re talking! Olde-tyme players have funny names/nicknames. Also, this scores you points with other players who assume you are some sort of tweedy baseball historian, when all you did was Google “old-time baseball player nicknames.” My favorite such player’s name? Urban Shocker. My favorite ever personal team name? The Urban Shockerz. We urbanely shocked our way to a championship. P.S. I added the Z to attract the kids to our merchandise. Kidz love the Z! GRADE: A

6. Arcane baseball rules/slang. Another good way to fake-impress your buddies. (You know who this will not impress? Ladies.) My favorite arcane rule: “Fielder’s Indifference,” i.e. an official scoring decision that a runner should not get credited with a stolen base because the fielders let him advance uncontested. It also sounds like a play by Samuel Beckett starring Vance and Rudy Law. As RCL alum will remember, my team last year was called the Indifferent Fielders. Trust me, they played like they were indifferent. Verdict: Too clever by half. GRADE: B minus.

7. Walt Whitman quotes. There’s a good one about baseball – they used it in Bull Durham. (Cue Susan Sarandon): “I see great things in baseball. It will take our people out-of-doors, fill them with oxygen, give them a larger physical stoicism, tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set, repair those losses and be a blessing to us.” The Baron regrets to inform you that, in a fit of toxic pretentiousness, he once called a team the Dyspeptic Set. As karmic payback, he got saddled with Jeff Francouer. Thanks a lot, Walt Whitman! GRADE: F

8. Humiliating Childhood Nicknames/ Derogatory Personal Slang. This is my new favorite source of team names. It’s like you’re turning the table on the bullies by winning some fantasy league they will never hear about! WHO’S THE DORK NOW? The Baron, as all the finest concubines of Europe are aware, is a natural redhead. Apparently, in Australia, there is a derogatory slang term for redheads: “Fanta Pants.” Get it? ‘Cause Fanta, the drink, is orange. Orange in the pants. Personally, the Baron thinks this is more derogatory toward Australians. But no matter! I’ve flipped the script and found my team name for ’09. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: The Fighting Fanta Pants. GRADE: AWESOME.

My 2008 preseason pick to win the NL Rookie of the Year award was Manny Parra.  Aren’t you glad you’re listening to me for fantasy baseball advice?  In Rudy’s top 20 risky pitchers post, he didn’t label Manny Parra an injury risk for 2009.  He said, “Throws five pitches (Fastball, Curveball, Changeup, Split-Finger, and Slider) all for balls (4.07 BB/9 IP).  Big spike in MLB pitch count (2,403) but only 323 if you factor in Minors.  20% breaking ball rate is fair.  Feel like his bigger issue will be throwing strikes in 2009 vs. staying healthy.”  And that’s me quoting Rudy!  I agree with Mr. G, but let’s look a bit more at Parra because I have a real good vibe about him and I think he can be a 2009 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Last year, Parra had a 7.97 K/9 rate and nearly made 30 starts, coming up just short at 29.  He was 25 at the time.  For a first full season, those are pretty solid marks, but somewhere in the 2nd half of the season it all went wrong.  Post All-Star break, Parra posted a 5.32 ERA.  What’s weird about that is he had a better K rate AND (caps for emphasis and those with bad eyes) a better walk rate in the 2nd half of the season.  Zoinks!  So his ERA ballooned while striking out more per inning and walking less.  That doesn’t make a whole lotta sense, Big Bird.  You’re right, Mr. Snuffleupagus.  So what was going on there?  Hmm… I’m going use Step One from my brand-new, unwritten pamphlet called, “Use Your Brain, Grey” and see what I can surmise.   (BTW, when Johnny Mize visited brothels, he went by Sir Mize — oofa!)

In the 2nd half of the season, Parra had a BABIP of .372, showing he was pretty unlucky.  So his poor luck forced him to stop nibbling on the corners and attack hitters more, which raised his Ks (because he has solid stuff) and lowered his walks.  The problem, he was attacking a little too recklessly and it raised his ERA.  He should’ve nibbled a little more.  Wow, this not-yet-written pamphlet works!   Now it could all happen again, so let’s not start blowing each other just yet.  In the top 80 starters for 2009 post, I put Manny Parra‘s 2009 projections at 11-9/4.10/1.40/160.  To quote my Jewish grandmother, “You could do worse. “